Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie6 September 2026Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen16°11 km/h

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HeerenveenBalanced & physical

2–3

AZ AlkmaarPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · AZ Alkmaar (46%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 26.00 (+23 %)

1 · Heerenveen 29%X 25%46% AZ Alkmaar · 2

29%

25%

46%

Analysis: Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

AZ Alkmaar's impressive xG per match of 2.9 dwarfs Heerenveen's 1.1, underscoring the visitors' offensive threat. With a streak of four consecutive wins and a solid 46% chance of victory according to the model, AZ are justifiably favored. Though the head-to-head record is a small five-game sample, AZ's superior form and playing style give them the edge in this match-up.

Despite Heerenveen's physicality and balanced style, their xGA of 1.8 reveals defensive vulnerabilities, which AZ's high press could exploit. The expected goals point towards a 1.70 to 1.42 edge for AZ, suggesting a closely contested battle with a slight advantage to the visitors. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% probability reflects this, though the 9% chance of an AZ 1-2 win aligns with the model's lean.

While a high-scoring fixture is anticipated, with the over 2.5 goals at 60%, the significant value lies with the hosts. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.21 for a Heerenveen win, which, with a 29% model probability, presents a notable 22% edge. This betting angle offers a compelling opportunity for those looking at potential upsets.

Heerenveen

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #14xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
Oliver BraudeRBxG 0.19 · xT 0.26
Sam KerstenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

AZ Alkmaar

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #4xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Ro-Zangelo DaalLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.95 · xT 0.01
Peer KoopmeinersCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14

Final score

2 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Heerenveen 29% · Draw 25% · AZ Alkmaar 46%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SC HeerenveenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,16fair 9,36-23 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AZ AlkmaarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,78fair 6,53-42 %

Hit

Match prediction: Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar

Predicted score matrix

AZ Alkmaar →

Heerenveen →

0–04.7%

0–17.2%

0–26.4%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.0%

1–111.0%

1–29.1%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.2%

2–04.5%

2–17.6%

2–26.4%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.3%

3–02.1%

3–13.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,42–1,70

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@3.00EV+19%

Over 2,560%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

AZ Alkmaar to win46%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

AZ Alkmaar to win46%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Troy Daniel Parrott to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Troy Daniel Parrott to score30%
Joris van Overeem to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.55% probability@26.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.55% probability@26.00BetssonEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.55% probability@26.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heerenveen	X	2 · AZ Alkmaar
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 1% 4.00	1.83
Betsson	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 1% 4.00	1.83
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 1% 4.00	1.83
Pinnacle	EV+ 8% 3.72	EV+ 7% 4.22	1.87

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

27 %22 %

3.89 → 3.72

X-2 %

25 %20 %

4.29 → 4.22

2+6 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.87

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Heerenveen 2Draw 0AZ Alkmaar 3

Goals: 8–18 (⌀ 5,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 5.2 goals per meeting on average.
AZ Alkmaar come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heerenveen (5–6)

AZ Alkmaar (13–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
Points	5	12
xPoints	3.5	9.4
xG per match	1.1	2.9
xGA per match	1.8	0.88
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.67
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.2

Playing style	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.82
xT per match	0.78	1.5
xTA per match	1.8	0.57
Won balls, offensive half	20	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	21
Entries into the box against	15	7
Pass completion %	0.81	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.74
Passes per match	449	441
Passes against per match	371	305
Switches of play per match	27.8	20
Long balls per match	37	28

Set pieces	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.01
Corners per match	4.5	10.1
Corners against per match	6.8	3.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.61	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.4

Other	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
Throw-in control	0.8	0.69

The goalkeepers	Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen)	Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar)
Saves	15	6
Save %	75%	67%
xG prevented	51%	22%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heerenveen

Fixtures, form & tips

AZ Alkmaar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar according to our model?

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heerenveen 29%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.