Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie22 August 2026Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen15°1,5 mm16 km/h

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HeerenveenBalanced & physical

PEC ZwolleLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Heerenveen (65%)

1 · Heerenveen 65%X 22%13% PEC Zwolle · 2

65%

22%

13%

Analysis: Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle

Sofia Andersson · 17 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Six meetings might not set the world alight as a statistical sample, but SC Heerenveen's recent brush with PEC Zwolle has been a tale of mild supremacy. Two wins to one, with the rest being stalemates, speaks of an edge that's more reassuring than definitive. Yet, the real intrigue sprouts from a different garden: PEC Zwolle's alarming four-game losing streak. When a team is down in the dumps as Zwolle is, historical head-to-heads pale in comparison to present form and the gaping wound of confidence.

SC Heerenveen, with a solid 65% model-endorsed victory chance, looks poised to add to Zwolle's miseries. Their balanced and physical style seems a good counter to Zwolle's low defence, direct approach. The hosts boast 2.28 expected goals against Zwolle's meager 0.96, a chasm suggesting goals await Heerenveen. Despite the dampening effect of 6.9 mm of rain expected, the numbers lean heavily towards a game that could still see the net bulge a few times.

A 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline, each with a 10% likelihood, fits the scene like a glove. The model's lean towards an over 2.5 goals outcome at 63% signals that goals may well be the order of the day. Even with Zwolle's last four outings ending in defeat, the 56% chance of both teams finding the net can't be dismissed, hinting at Heerenveen potentially conceding one.

For the shrewd punter, the sharpest angle lies in the betting market's value. With Heerenveen's odds at 1.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering a 3% edge, it’s a temptation hard to resist. While forecasting football matches is never a guarantee, when the numbers align so crisply with form, the bet on Heerenveen to secure victory seems the sage choice.

Heerenveen

Form LDLWD

League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #18xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
Marcus LindayCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Sam KerstenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

PEC Zwolle

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #16xP/match #17Points #15

Key players

Tobias Sommer SørensenFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Simon GravesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Dylan MbayoRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle

Predicted score matrix

PEC Zwolle →

Heerenveen →

0–04.2%

0–13.5%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.7%

1–18.8%

1–24.1%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.7%

3–17.4%

3–23.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.5%

4+–17.2%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,28–0,96

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.63

Over 2,563%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heerenveen to win65%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heerenveen to win65%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Dylan Vente to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Dylan Vente to score30%
Ryan Jared Thomas to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Heerenveen65% probability@1.59BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
1 · Heerenveen65% probability@1.59BetssonEV+3%reference odds
1 · Heerenveen65% probability@1.59NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heerenveen	X	2 · PEC Zwolle
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 1.59	4.28	4.85
Betsson	EV+ 3% 1.59	4.28	4.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 1.59	4.28	4.85

Odds updated 18 Aug, 08:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

61 %56 %

1.62 → 1.59

X+4 %

25 %20 %

4.11 → 4.28

20 %

22 %17 %

4.83 → 4.85

Over 2,50 %

68 %63 %

1.44 → 1.44

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Heerenveen 2Draw 3PEC Zwolle 1

Goals: 11–8 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

SC Heerenveen dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
PEC Zwolle have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heerenveen

PEC Zwolle

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heerenveen (3–2)

PEC Zwolle (1–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

PEC Zwolle

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

PEC Zwolle

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heerenveen	PEC Zwolle
Points	3	0
xPoints	0.9	1.3
xG per match	0.49	0.51
xGA per match	1.9	2.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.42

Playing style	Heerenveen	PEC Zwolle
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.27
Field tilt	0.31	0.15
xT per match	0.23	0.54
xTA per match	2.9	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	20	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.23
Entries into the box per match	6	9
Entries into the box against	19	20
Pass completion %	0.78	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.55
Passes per match	393	194
Passes against per match	467	511
Switches of play per match	12.8	18.1
Long balls per match	30	32

Set pieces	Heerenveen	PEC Zwolle
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3.9	2.5
Corners against per match	7.9	7.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.75	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.5

Other	Heerenveen	PEC Zwolle
Throw-in control	0.72	0.71

The goalkeepers	Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen)	Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle)
Saves	7	12
Save %	88%	75%
xG prevented	92%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle according to our model?

The model gives Heerenveen a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heerenveen 65%, draw 22%, PEC Zwolle 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.