Heerenveen vs Telstar: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie12 September 2026Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen18°1,7 mm15 km/h

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HeerenveenBalanced & physical

TelstarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Heerenveen (59%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.85 (+11 %)

1 · Heerenveen 59%X 23%19% Telstar · 2

59%

23%

19%

Analysis: Heerenveen – Telstar

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The numbers lay a foundation for Heerenveen as favorites, with a 59% probability of winning against Telstar's 19%. Despite this apparent edge, there's tension in the model's numbers: while Heerenveen are expected to control the match, their head-to-head advantage is drawn from a small sample of just two encounters. This should be taken with caution, especially considering Telstar's direct style, which can disrupt more balanced teams.

The probabilities suggest a tight contest, with 2-1 and 1-1 as the most likely outcomes, each at 10%. Heerenveen's expected goals (xG) of 2.09 indicates potential dominance; however, Telstar's ability to find the net with an xG of 1.14 cannot be ignored. The visitors have a knack for exploiting defensive frailties, underscored by Heerenveen's expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 per match.

Telstar's defensive frailty is a concern, allowing an xGA of 2.0, which might just tip the scales in favor of the home side. But the betting value might lie elsewhere. Despite a 63% chance for over 2.5 goals, the market appears to have overlooked the potential for a lower-scoring game, with rain possibly playing a suppressive role in the goal tally.

The sharp angle here is the value on under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.81 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This bet, given a 37% probability by the model, offers a compelling 5% edge. Betting against the grain of high-scoring expectations could be the savvy move, especially in unpredictable weather. The conclusion? Heerenveen might edge it 2-1, but unders offer the sharper edge in a match that could be tighter than it seems.

Heerenveen

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #14xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Oliver BraudeRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.23
Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
Sam KerstenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Telstar

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #16xP/match #11Points #14

Key players

Rui MendesFxG 0.18 · xT -0.01
Soufiane HetliCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.04
Jeff HardeveldLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Heerenveen – Telstar

Predicted score matrix

Telstar →

Heerenveen →

0–04.2%

0–14.3%

0–22.6%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.0%

1–19.7%

1–25.4%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.6%

2–19.8%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–06.0%

3–16.8%

3–23.9%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–05.1%

4+–15.8%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,09–1,14

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,537%

@2.90EV+9%

Over 2,563%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heerenveen to win59%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heerenveen to win59%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Ringo Meerveld to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Ringo Meerveld to score26%
Sem Valk to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.560% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@2.90BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heerenveen	X	2 · Telstar
Bet365	EV+ 5% 1.80	4.00	3.60
Betfair Exchange	1.67	3.85	3.95
Betsafe	1.62	4.11	4.83
Betsson	1.62	4.11	4.83
Nordicbet	1.62	4.11	4.83
Pinnacle	1.61	EV+ 3% 4.51	4.57

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Heerenveen win since 10 September — the odds have shortened from 1.71 to 1.61 (−6%).

1-6 %

59 %54 %

1.71 → 1.61

X+5 %

24 %19 %

4.28 → 4.51

2+9 %

24 %19 %

4.18 → 4.57

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Heerenveen 2Draw 0Telstar 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heerenveen

Telstar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heerenveen (7–9)

Telstar (5–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

Telstar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

Telstar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heerenveen	Telstar
Points	5	4
xPoints	5.3	5.7
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.23

Playing style	Heerenveen	Telstar
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.25
xT per match	0.88	0.72
xTA per match	1.6	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	21	23
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.21
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	15	20
Pass completion %	0.8	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.68
Passes per match	424	283
Passes against per match	384	426
Switches of play per match	27.3	21.1
Long balls per match	36	33

Set pieces	Heerenveen	Telstar
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	4.4	4.1
Corners against per match	6	6.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.45

Other	Heerenveen	Telstar
Throw-in control	0.83	0.77

The goalkeepers	Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen)	Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)
Saves	20	22
Save %	71%	67%
xG prevented	51%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heerenveen

Fixtures, form & tips

Telstar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heerenveen vs Telstar according to our model?

The model gives Heerenveen a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heerenveen 59%, draw 23%, Telstar 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.