Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie22 August 2026Het Kasteel, Rotterdam16°1,5 mm10 km/h

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Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crosses

UtrechtPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Utrecht (42%)

1 · Sparta Rotterdam 30%X 28%42% Utrecht · 2

30%

28%

42%

Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – Utrecht

Sofia Andersson · 17 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

42% is the key figure here, and it points to FC Utrecht as the likely victor despite recent struggles in head-to-head matchups against Sparta Rotterdam. The model gives them a clear lean, which is intriguing given Sparta's ability to claim all three points in their most recent encounters. While the head-to-head record since 2022 shows Sparta with four wins to Utrecht's six, the small sample size means this statistic shouldn't overshadow the current form and expected goals.

FC Utrecht's playing style of possession control might just counteract Sparta's counter-attacking approach. With expected goals tallying Sparta Rotterdam at 1.36 and FC Utrecht at 1.61, the numbers suggest that Utrecht's ability to dictate play could well pay off. Furthermore, the weather isn't a factor in this match, so we should expect these metrics to play out without external influences like rain or wind suppressing the goal count.

Sparta Rotterdam, while strong in recent head-to-heads, have vulnerabilities, particularly in defense with an xGA of 2.3 per match compared to Utrecht's more reliable 1.8. This defensive discrepancy could tilt the game in favour of the visitors, as it suggests Utrecht is more likely to suppress Sparta's attacking plays. The model's most likely scorelines, including 1-2 and 0-1, also favor a narrow victory for FC Utrecht.

The betting value here is undeniable. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering 2.65 odds on an FC Utrecht win, there's a substantial 11% edge according to the model. With a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams scoring, a 1-2 scoreline isn't just possible; it's probable. It's a high-stakes play that leans towards a thrilling encounter and an away win.

Sparta Rotterdam

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #7xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

Marvin YoungFxG 0.22 · xT 0.05
Ayoni SantosLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Casper Mikael TerhoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.08

Utrecht

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #9xT #10xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Arthur ZagréLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.31
Siebe HoremansCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
Dani de WitFxG 0.12 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – Utrecht

Predicted score matrix

Utrecht →

Sparta Rotterdam →

0–05.5%

0–17.9%

0–26.6%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.1%

1–06.7%

1–111.6%

1–29.0%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.7%

2–17.6%

2–26.2%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.2%

3–13.5%

3–22.8%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,36–1,61

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.04

Over 2,557%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Utrecht or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Utrecht or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Artem Stepanov to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Artem Stepanov to score24%
Dani de Wit to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Utrecht42% probability@2.59BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · Utrecht42% probability@2.59BetssonEV+9%reference odds
2 · Utrecht42% probability@2.59NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Rotterdam	X	2 · Utrecht
Betsafe	2.59	3.36	EV+ 9% 2.59
Betsson	2.59	3.36	EV+ 9% 2.59
Nordicbet	2.59	3.36	EV+ 9% 2.59

Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.59

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.36 → 3.36

2-2 %

38 %33 %

2.64 → 2.59

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.71

Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

11 matches

Sparta Rotterdam 4Draw 1Utrecht 6

Goals: 11–19 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sparta Rotterdam

Utrecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sparta Rotterdam (3–2)

Utrecht (2–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Utrecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Utrecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Rotterdam	Utrecht
Points	3	0
xPoints	2.1	1.8
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	2.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.26

Playing style	Sparta Rotterdam	Utrecht
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.27	0.37
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	22
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.73
Passes per match	262	274
Passes against per match	429	356
Switches of play per match	29.6	22.9
Long balls per match	41	34

Set pieces	Sparta Rotterdam	Utrecht
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.14
Corners per match	4.8	2
Corners against per match	8.2	6.5
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.76	0.77

Other	Sparta Rotterdam	Utrecht
Throw-in control	0.89	0.78

The goalkeepers	Filip Bednarek (Sparta Rotterdam)	Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht)
Saves	6	5
Save %	75%	56%
xG prevented	43%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht according to our model?

The model gives Utrecht a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 30%, draw 28%, Utrecht 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.