01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sparta Rotterdam to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
EredivisieHet Kasteel, Rotterdam20°4,2 mm39 km/h
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Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crossesvs
PEC ZwolleLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sparta Rotterdam (52%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+39 %)
Sparta Rotterdam – PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
1 · Sparta Rotterdam 52%X 27%21% PEC Zwolle · 2
52%
27%
21%
Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – PEC Zwolle
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Sparta Rotterdam's defensive vulnerabilities are glaring, with an average of 2.1 expected goals against per match, exposing a soft underbelly. Yet, their counter-attacking strategy, coupled with an edge in expected goals per match over PEC Zwolle, gives them a slight advantage. The model sees a 52% probability for a home win, indicating Sparta is set to control this encounter, albeit through patient buildup and cautious play.
Zwolle's track record against Sparta is strong, having won half of their last six meetings. However, these head-to-head results hold less weight when juxtaposed with their season-long form. Sparta holds a narrow edge in points, four to Zwolle's three, though Zwolle actually leads on xPoints, 4.6 to 3.5, suggesting their underlying performances have been slightly stronger. This pattern suggests a competitive clash, with the model's lean toward the hosts resting more on style and expected goals than on the broader underlying numbers.
The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 underscore a match likely to be decided by narrow margins. The expected goals tilt towards Sparta at 1.76, hinting at a potential edge to break through Zwolle’s low defensive line. Yet, given both teams' capacity to concede, a draw or a slim home victory seems more probable. The modeled likelihood of over 2.5 goals is almost perfectly balanced at 52%, acknowledging the potential for goals but within a framework that still respects both sides' defensive susceptibilities.
Rain at 4.2 mm is expected, which may suppress goal-scoring to some extent, though this factor is already accounted for in the model's predictions. Looking for a tighter, lower-scoring affair? The under 0.5 goals market holds significant value at odds of 21.0 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a substantial edge of 39% according to the model. While such an outcome is inherently low probability at 7%, the potential payoff for a scoreless draw could appeal to those willing to back a rare but statistically juicy scenario.
Sparta RotterdamForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #7xP/match #17Points #12
Key players
- Milan ZonneveldRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.04
- Julian BaasCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Marvin YoungCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.05
PEC ZwolleForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #17xP/match #12Points #13
Key players
- Koen KostonsFxG 0.35 · xT 0.11
- Tobias Sommer SørensenFxG 0.10 · xT 0.04
- Dylan MbayoRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – PEC Zwolle
Predicted score matrix
PEC Zwolle →
Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–16.0%
0–23.2%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.8%
1–111.5%
1–25.6%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.8%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.7%
3–15.8%
3–22.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–13.8%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,76–1,00
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.63EV+26%
Over 2,552%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sparta Rotterdam to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Tobias Lauritsen to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Tobias Lauritsen to score33%
- Simon Graves Jensen to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00BetssonEV+39%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+39%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sparta Rotterdam | X | 2 · PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | EV+ 5% 3.81 | 3.64 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | EV+ 5% 3.81 | 3.64 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | EV+ 5% 3.81 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | EV+ 4% 3.79 | 3.68 |
Odds updated 3 Sept, 05:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
53 %48 %
1.83 → 1.92
X-2 %
27 %22 %
3.86 → 3.79
2-7 %
27 %22 %
3.94 → 3.68
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesSparta Rotterdam 1Draw 2PEC Zwolle 3
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam (7–7)
PEC Zwolle (4–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPoints | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 341 | 230 |
| Passes against per match | 365 | 444 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.9 | 16.2 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 6.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.43 |
| Other | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Bednarek (Sparta Rotterdam) | Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 18 |
| Save % | 59% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 52%, draw 27%, PEC Zwolle 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.