01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X)59%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
EredivisieHet Kasteel, Rotterdam14°11,4 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crossesvs
HeerenveenBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Sparta Rotterdam (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.50 (+0 %)
Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen · Eredivisie
1 · Sparta Rotterdam 39%X 26%35% Heerenveen · 2
39%
26%
35%
Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The head-to-head figures are misstated (should be 4W 1D 3L, not "four to Heerenveen's three," which omits the draw), the xGA interpretation is backwards (Heerenveen's 1.7 xGA is the better/edge number, not a vulnerability), and the cited betting odds (1.80 with Bet365) are not supported by the facts.
Corrected text:
Sparta Rotterdam's ability to thrive on counter-attacks could be key in their clash against Heerenveen. The hosts excel at quick transitions and crosses, evident from their 0.17 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball. This tactical approach may test the visitors, even though Heerenveen actually holds a slight edge defensively with a 1.7 xGA per match compared to Sparta's 1.9. Heerenveen’s balanced and physical playstyle often sees them stay competitive, as reflected in their similar xPoints tally of 5.3 against Sparta’s 5.4.
The head-to-head record since 2022, although a small sample of eight matches, shows Sparta with a slight edge, having won four, drawn one, and lost three. This balances well with the model's prediction, offering a slight tilt towards Sparta with a 39% win probability. Yet, with the model's most likely scorelines showing a tight battle (1-1 at 10%, and both 1-2 and 2-1 at 8%), this encounter seems set for a close contest.
Both teams are expected to score, with a 68% probability, and there's a strong 67% chance of over 2.5 goals. This aligns with their respective xG numbers: Sparta at 1.66 and Heerenveen slightly ahead at 1.79, suggesting that defenses could be breached multiple times. The visitors' physicality might be tempered by Sparta's counter-attacking prowess, leading to an open and dynamic matchup.
With all signs pointing towards a competitive encounter, the sharpest betting angle lies in the over 2.5 goals market, considering the high probability and offensive stats. While predicting the exact scoreline remains tricky, a 2-1 win for Sparta or a narrow 1-1 draw could emerge, but the goals appear more certain than the victor.
Sparta RotterdamForm LWDLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #7xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Milan ZonneveldRWxG 0.72 · xT 0.07
- Julian BaasCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Marvin YoungCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
HeerenveenForm WDLDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #14xP/match #16Points #12
Key players
- Oliver BraudeRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.23
- Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
- Sam KerstenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen
Predicted score matrix
Heerenveen →
Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.5%
0–15.4%
0–25.1%
0–33.0%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–05.0%
1–19.7%
1–28.4%
1–35.0%
1–4+3.4%
2
2–04.4%
2–17.8%
2–27.0%
2–34.2%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–14.3%
3–23.9%
3–32.3%
3–4+1.5%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.6%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.9%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-15%
Expected goals
1,66–1,79
Both teams to score
68%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.53
Over 2,567%
@1.50EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X)59%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Julian Baas to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score68%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Ringo Meerveld to score22%
- Marvin Young to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.567% probability@1.50Bet365EV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sparta Rotterdam | X | 2 · Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betsafe | 2.34 | 3.81 | 2.63 |
| Betsson | 2.34 | 3.81 | 2.63 |
| Nordicbet | 2.34 | 3.81 | 2.63 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:39
Odds movement
10 %
42 %37 %
2.34 → 2.34
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.81 → 3.81
20 %
38 %33 %
2.63 → 2.63
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSparta Rotterdam 4Draw 1Heerenveen 3
Goals: 13–10 (⌀ 2,9)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam (9–9)
Heerenveen (7–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 354 | 424 |
| Passes against per match | 352 | 384 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.2 | 27.3 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.6 |
| Other | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Bednarek (Sparta Rotterdam) | Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 20 |
| Save % | 59% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 39%, draw 26%, Heerenveen 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.