01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Ajax to win70%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
EredivisieBUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid19°23,6 mm31 km/h
Läs på svenska
TelstarLow block & direct0–4
AjaxPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Ajax (70%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.50 (+28 %)
Telstar – Ajax · Eredivisie
1 · Telstar 13%X 17%70% Ajax · 2
13%
17%
70%
Analysis: Telstar – Ajax
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Seventy percent. That's the figure that looms largest over the Telstar vs Ajax matchup. It's the probability that Ajax will emerge victorious, according to the model. A significant number, reflecting not only the gap in quality between the two sides but also the Dutch giants' current form. Ajax remains unbeaten in their last five league outings, a streak that underlines their dominance, while Telstar has yet to find a way past them in their limited head-to-head encounters — a small sample, yes, but telling nonetheless.
The expected goals of 2.53 for Ajax against Telstar's 1.02 paint a clear picture: Ajax are likely to control proceedings with their possession-based, high-press style. This clash of styles — Ajax's finesse against Telstar's direct approach — is likely to favor the visitors, especially in a match where the model predicts a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Even the weather, with its 9.0 mm of rain, is unlikely to deter Ajax's offensive march, already factored into these projections.
For bettors, the sharpest angle here is the value on Ajax to win. With prices at 1.54 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 7% edge according to the model. The most probable outcomes line up with this: look for a 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline, as Ajax slips past Telstar again.
TelstarForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #14xP/match #11Points #10
Key players
- Soufiane HetliCAMxG 0.55 · xT 0.04
- Patrick BrouwerRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.24
- Abdelnour SoualhiaCBxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
AjaxForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #4xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Lucas RosaRBxG 0.17 · xT 0.32
- Caio Henrique Oliveira SilvaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
- Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
Final score
0 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Telstar 13% · Draw 17% · Ajax 70%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AjaxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 2,92fair 3,66-20 %
MissMatchresultat - SC TelstarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,12fair 23,40-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Telstar – Ajax
Predicted score matrix
Ajax →
Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.1%
0–17.0%
0–29.2%
0–37.8%
0–4+9.0%
1
1–02.7%
1–17.6%
1–29.4%
1–37.9%
1–4+9.2%
2
2–01.5%
2–13.8%
2–24.8%
2–34.0%
2–4+4.7%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.3%
3–21.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+1.6%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-29%
- 2.0-29%
- 3.1-38%
- 4.0-38%
- 5.1-18%
Expected goals
1,02–2,53
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
110%
218%
321%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,531%
@3.27EV+2%
Over 2,569%
@1.50EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Ajax to win70%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Wout François Maria Weghorst to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Wout François Maria Weghorst to score37%
- Guus Offerhaus to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.528% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+28%reference odds
- 2 · Ajax70% probability@1.75Paddy PowerEV+22%reference odds
- Over 3.547% probability@2.40Paddy PowerEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Telstar | X | 2 · Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 6.71 | 4.72 | 1.41 |
| Betsson | 6.71 | 4.72 | 1.41 |
| Nordicbet | 6.71 | 4.72 | 1.41 |
| Paddy Power | 3.60 | 3.80 | EV+ 22% 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 6.46 | 5.28 | 1.43 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Ajax win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.63 to 1.43 (−12%).
1+41 %
23 %13 %
4.59 → 6.46
X+21 %
25 %15 %
4.35 → 5.28
2-12 %
67 %57 %
1.63 → 1.43
Pinnacle · 23 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesTelstar 0Draw 0Ajax 2
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- AFC Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Telstar
Ajax
Telstar (3–4)
Ajax (4–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Telstar
Ajax
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Telstar
Ajax
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.88 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 17 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 29 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 286 | 479 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 292 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.6 | 32.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 8.4 |
| Corners against per match | 8.9 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.1 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 1 |
| Other | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar) | Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 8 |
| Save % | 69% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Telstar vs Ajax according to our model?
The model gives Ajax a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Telstar 13%, draw 17%, Ajax 70%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.