Telstar vs Cambuur: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie6 September 2026BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid18°12 km/h

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TelstarLow block & direct

2–2

CambuurPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Telstar (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Cambuur @ 4.69 (+52 %)

1 · Telstar 41%X 27%32% Cambuur · 2

41%

27%

32%

Analysis: Telstar – Cambuur

Marcus Johansson · 5 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Telstar and Cambuur haven't faced each other often since 2022, so form and expected goals take precedence over their head-to-head record. The hosts have the edge on paper with an outright probability of 41% to Cambuur's 32%, as per the model. However, the likelihood of a draw isn't insignificant, sitting at 27%. The model leans towards a Telstar win, but there's more to unpack here.

The hosts employ a low defence and direct style, which contrasts sharply with Cambuur's possession-based approach. This tactical mismatch might allow Telstar to exploit spaces left by Cambuur when they control the ball. Yet, Cambuur's recent four-game losing streak could either galvanize them into a spirited performance or further demoralize them. The visitors have shown a slightly better expected goals (xG) per match at 1.2 compared to Telstar's 1.1, suggesting they have the capability to create scoring opportunities despite their poor run.

Expected goals against (xGA) tell a different story—Telstar’s 2.2 against Cambuur’s 2.4 hints at a slight defensive edge for the home side. Both teams are likely to find the net with 64% probability for both teams to score. The over 2.5 goals market is also in focus with a 62% probability, aligning with the expected goals of 1.67 for Telstar and 1.52 for Cambuur. The most probable outcomes hover around a tight scoring game: 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2.

Yet, for punters, the allure lies with Cambuur. Despite their form, betting markets with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a juicy 4.63 for an away win. The model rates Cambuur's chances at 32%, presenting a 50% edge. This kind of value is rare and tempting, hinting at a surprise turnaround for the visitors.

Telstar

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #15xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Soufiane HetliCAMxG 0.55 · xT 0.04
Tyrone OwusuCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Patrick BrouwerRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.18

Cambuur

Form LLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #10xP/match #16Points #18

Key players

Ismaël BaoufCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Nicky SourenCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Telstar 41% · Draw 27% · Cambuur 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CambuurBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,42fair 8,17+15 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SC TelstarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,57fair 6,75-47 %

Miss

Match prediction: Telstar – Cambuur

Predicted score matrix

Cambuur →

Telstar →

0–04.5%

0–16.0%

0–24.8%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.6%

1–110.8%

1–27.9%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.8%

2–18.7%

2–26.6%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.2%

3–14.9%

3–23.7%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.9%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,67–1,52

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.87EV+10%

Over 2,562%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Telstar or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Telstar or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Soufiane Hetli to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Soufiane Hetli to score26%
Guus Offerhaus to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cambuur32% probability@4.69PinnacleEV+52%reference odds
2 · Cambuur32% probability@4.59BetsafeEV+49%reference odds
2 · Cambuur32% probability@4.59BetssonEV+49%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Telstar	X	2 · Cambuur
Betsafe	1.65	EV+ 11% 4.11	EV+ 49% 4.59
Betsson	1.65	EV+ 11% 4.11	EV+ 49% 4.59
Nordicbet	1.65	EV+ 11% 4.11	EV+ 49% 4.59
Pinnacle	1.65	EV+ 21% 4.48	EV+ 52% 4.69

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

61 %56 %

1.60 → 1.65

X+1 %

24 %19 %

4.45 → 4.48

2-1 %

23 %18 %

4.75 → 4.69

Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Cambuur have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Telstar

Cambuur

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Telstar (3–8)

Cambuur (4–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Telstar

Cambuur

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Telstar

Cambuur

The teams in numbers

Performance	Telstar	Cambuur
Points	3	0
xPoints	3	3.7
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	2.2	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.36

Playing style	Telstar	Cambuur
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.28	0.36
xT per match	0.77	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	21	20
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	23	18
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	303	352
Passes against per match	415	386
Switches of play per match	22.8	23.2
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Telstar	Cambuur
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	5	4.3
Corners against per match	7.3	6.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.58

Other	Telstar	Cambuur
Throw-in control	0.74	0.83

The goalkeepers	Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)	Thijs Jansen (Cambuur)
Saves	14	18
Save %	64%	55%
xG prevented	45%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Telstar

Fixtures, form & tips

Cambuur

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Telstar vs Cambuur according to our model?

The model gives Telstar a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Telstar 41%, draw 27%, Cambuur 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.