Twente vs Telstar: Prediction & Odds (9 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie9 September 2026De Grolsch Veste, Enschede15°9,7 mm24 km/h

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TwentePossession & high press

TelstarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Twente (81%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 2.10 (+7 %)

1 · Twente 81%X 12%7% Telstar · 2

81%

12%

Analysis: Twente – Telstar

Oscar Nilsson · 7 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Twente commands an 81% probability to secure victory against Telstar, a stark contrast to the meager 7% chance for the visitors. Despite a history of draws in their last two encounters since 2022, this limited head-to-head data is less crucial than the current form and expected goals. Telstar's low defensive style will likely struggle against Twente's high press, reflected in the expected goals of 2.75 for the hosts versus 0.87 for the visitors.

The most probable scorelines lean heavily towards a home win, with 2-0 at 10% and 3-0 at 9%. Rain is expected, which could slightly temper the goal count, but a 70% chance for over 2.5 goals suggests the potential for a few scoring moments remains. Twente's 58% home win rate underscores their dominance at home, a factor that Telstar will find challenging to overcome.

While a high-scoring game is on the cards, the under 3.5 goals market offers an intriguing angle. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 2.0, the model suggests a 51% likelihood for this outcome, presenting a 2% edge. For those seeking value, this might be the sharpest play amidst Twente's expected victory.

Twente

Form LLWWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #1xP/match #3Points #8

Key players

Younes Taha El IdrissiRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.61
Marko PjacaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
Wout WeghorstFxG 0.55 · xT -0.01

Telstar

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #15xP/match #8Points #14

Key players

Soufiane HetliCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.04
Tyrone OwusuCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Patrick BrouwerRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Twente – Telstar

Predicted score matrix

Telstar →

Twente →

0–02.8%

0–12.1%

0–21.0%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–07.1%

1–16.6%

1–22.8%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–010.1%

2–18.8%

2–23.8%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.3%

3–18.1%

3–23.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–012.4%

4+–110.9%

4+–24.7%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.3-09%
3.2-19%
4.3-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,75–0,87

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@3.47EV+3%

Over 2,570%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Twente to win81%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Twente to win81%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score28%
Danny Bakker to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.551% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
1 · Twente81% probability@1.30Bet365EV+5%reference odds
Under 3.551% probability@2.04BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Twente	X	2 · Telstar
Bet365	EV+ 5% 1.30	5.25	8.00
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 3% 1.28	6.00	9.20
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 1.24	5.61	12.17
Betsson	EV+ 0% 1.24	5.61	12.17
Nordicbet	EV+ 0% 1.24	5.61	12.17
Pinnacle	1.23	6.85	9.58

Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:13

Odds movement

10 %

79 %74 %

1.23 → 1.23

X-1 %

16 %11 %

6.91 → 6.85

2-4 %

12 %7 %

10.03 → 9.58

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Twente 0Draw 2Telstar 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Twente Enschede FC win 58% of their home matches all-time (36 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Twente

Telstar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Twente (9–5)

Telstar (5–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Twente

Telstar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Twente

Telstar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Twente	Telstar
Points	7	4
xPoints	7.9	5.5
xG per match	2.5	1.4
xGA per match	0.76	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.28

Playing style	Twente	Telstar
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.77	0.28
xT per match	2	0.78
xTA per match	0.55	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	26	23
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.18
Entries into the box per match	18	11
Entries into the box against	9	22
Pass completion %	0.81	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.68
Passes per match	489	282
Passes against per match	299	393
Switches of play per match	38	22.8
Long balls per match	39	33

Set pieces	Twente	Telstar
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	6.3	4.6
Corners against per match	4.3	5.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.28	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.35	0.46

Other	Twente	Telstar
Throw-in control	0.78	0.75

The goalkeepers	Lars Unnerstall (Twente)	Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)
Saves	7	15
Save %	64%	60%
xG prevented	43%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Twente vs Telstar according to our model?

The model gives Twente a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Twente 81%, draw 12%, Telstar 7%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.