Willem II vs Excelsior: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie5 September 2026Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg17°19 km/h

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Willem IILow block & direct

ExcelsiorPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Willem II (39%)Soft draw

1 · Willem II 39%X 25%36% Excelsior · 2

39%

25%

36%

Analysis: Willem II – Excelsior

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A tight contest looms between Willem II and Excelsior, with probabilities putting the hosts at a slight 39% edge over the visitors' 36%. However, Excelsior comes in with a scoring streak, having found the net in 8 straight league games. Their strong performance is further highlighted by their 6 league points compared to Willem II’s solitary point, alongside a better xPoints tally (5.1 to 3.6) and superior xG metrics, suggesting they might have the upper hand.

Excelsior's possession-focused style might struggle against the hosts' direct approach, especially with the weather forecasting 4.8 mm of rain, potentially disrupting fluid play. This could suit Willem II as they look to exploit any defensive lapses. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with the hosts at 1.48 xG and the visitors at 1.35 xG, hinting at small margins deciding the outcome. The most probable scorelines reflect this balance: 1-1 at 12% and 2-1 at 9%.

A 54% over 2.5 goals probability and a 58% chance of both teams scoring suggest goals are likely, despite the weather's potential dampening effect. While Willem II may have an intangible home edge, Excelsior's current form and statistical advantages make them tough opponents. Still, the model's inclination towards a home win signals value; backing the hosts at odds of 2.83 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a tempting 10% edge.

In a game that could swing either way, bettors might find the real value in Willem II's odds. Despite Excelsior's form, the 2.83 odds for a home victory present a calculated risk aligned with a model-backed 39% chance, ripe for those seeking an edge in the market.

Willem II

Form LDLLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #17xT #13xP/match #9Points #15

Key players

Devin HaenFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
Nathan Noël Romejo Tjoe-A-OnLBxG 0.19 · xT 0.39
Kasper BoogaardFxG 0.10 · xT 0.02

Excelsior

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #9xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Irakli YegoianRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.44
Aymen SlitiRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
David GardenFxG 0.49 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Willem II – Excelsior

Predicted score matrix

Excelsior →

Willem II →

0–06.2%

0–17.6%

0–25.4%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.4%

1–112.1%

1–27.9%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.5%

2–18.7%

2–25.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.2%

3–14.3%

3–22.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,48–1,35

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.27EV+5%

Over 2,554%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Willem II or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Willem II or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Calvin Twigt to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Derensili Sanches Fernandes to score19%
Lennard Hartjes to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Willem II39% probability@2.89BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
1 · Willem II39% probability@2.89BetssonEV+12%reference odds
1 · Willem II39% probability@2.89NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Willem II	X	2 · Excelsior
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.89	3.46	2.31
Betsson	EV+ 12% 2.89	3.46	2.31
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.89	3.46	2.31
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 2.83	3.69	2.33

Odds updated 3 Sept, 16:33

Odds movement

1-7 %

35 %30 %

3.05 → 2.83

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.68 → 3.69

2+8 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.33

Over 2,5-1 %

60 %55 %

1.65 → 1.63

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Excelsior Rotterdam have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Willem II

Excelsior

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Willem II (4–10)

Excelsior (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Willem II

Excelsior

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Willem II

Excelsior

The teams in numbers

Performance	Willem II	Excelsior
Points	1	6
xPoints	3.6	5.1
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	2.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.21

Playing style	Willem II	Excelsior
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.21	0.54
xT per match	0.8	1.1
xTA per match	2.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	21	32
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	23	15
Pass completion %	0.69	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.67
Passes per match	221	338
Passes against per match	500	437
Switches of play per match	20.2	35.4
Long balls per match	37	44

Set pieces	Willem II	Excelsior
xG from free kicks	0.09	0
Corners per match	4	5.1
Corners against per match	5.1	5.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.62

Other	Willem II	Excelsior
Throw-in control	0.81	0.73

The goalkeepers	Karst de Leeuw (Willem II)	Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior)
Saves	9	8
Save %	60%	73%
xG prevented	39%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Willem II vs Excelsior according to our model?

The model gives Willem II a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Willem II 39%, draw 25%, Excelsior 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.