01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Willem II to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
EredivisieKoning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg14°10,5 mm21 km/h
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Willem IILow block & directvs
Fortuna SittardLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Willem II (48%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.50 (+29 %)
Willem II – Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
1 · Willem II 48%X 25%27% Fortuna Sittard · 2
48%
25%
27%
Analysis: Willem II – Fortuna Sittard
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The model probabilities and stats are used correctly, but the text includes fabricated details not present in the facts: a specific bookmaker odds figure (Bet365 2.10) and "weather-neutral conditions," neither of which are supported by the provided data. These should be removed.
Corrected text:
Willem II enters this clash with a clear model-backed edge at 48% to win, yet their current form is a glaring point of tension. Despite the model's lean, the hosts have secured just a single point this season, as opposed to Fortuna Sittard's ten. A scant two-match head-to-head history, with Willem II not yet claiming victory, adds minimal weight against the broader form indicators and expected goals.
The model suggests a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, reflecting both teams' vulnerability. Willem II's expected goals stand at 1.70 compared to Fortuna's 1.06, which points to a greater attacking potential for the hosts. Nevertheless, their inability to convert chances into points raises questions about their efficiency in front of goal. This inefficiency could see them struggle to secure the 1-0 or 2-1 victories predicted as possible outcomes.
Defensively, both sides showcase a porous backline, with Willem II allowing 2.3 xGA per match, slightly more than Fortuna's 2.1. Their shared low defence and direct playing styles might produce an open game, yet the over 2.5 goals likelihood barely exceeds a coin flip at 52%. This suggests a match teetering on the edge of high and low scoring, with no strong lean towards either.
While Fortuna Sittard's season form and xPoints edge give them a tangible advantage, the model still gives Willem II the higher probability of winning outright. However, considering the low-scoring tendencies, a 1-1 draw remains a plausible outcome.
In this delicate balance, the most compelling angle lies in the model's lean toward a home win. Despite form discrepancies, the model's confidence in Willem II presents a noteworthy avenue for punters seeking an edge.
Willem IIForm DLLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #12xP/match #14Points #16
Key players
- Devin HaenFxG 0.20 · xT 0.05
- Calvin TwigtCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Hidde Willem ter AvestRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Fortuna SittardForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
- Ole ter Haar RomenyFxG 0.15 · xT -0.02
- Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Willem II – Fortuna Sittard
Predicted score matrix
Fortuna Sittard →
Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–16.3%
0–23.5%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.4%
1–111.7%
1–26.0%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.7%
2–25.1%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.2%
3–15.5%
3–22.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,70–1,06
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.40EV+15%
Over 2,552%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Willem II to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Calvin Twigt to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Calvin Twigt to score26%
- Ivo Daniel Ferreira Mendonça Pinto to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.523% probability@5.50Bet365EV+29%reference odds
- 1 · Willem II48% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- 1 · Willem II48% probability@2.65BetssonEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Willem II | X | 2 · Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 26% 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.38 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 27% 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.41 |
| Betsson | EV+ 27% 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.41 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 27% 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.41 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39
Odds movement
1-2 %
37 %32 %
2.71 → 2.65
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.62 → 3.61
2+2 %
42 %37 %
2.36 → 2.41
Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWillem II 0Draw 1Fortuna Sittard 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard
Willem II (4–13)
Fortuna Sittard (11–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 10 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.46 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 23 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 276 | 208 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 525 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.9 | 13.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 7.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| Other | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Karst de Leeuw (Willem II) | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 22 |
| Save % | 60% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard according to our model?
The model gives Willem II a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Willem II 48%, draw 25%, Fortuna Sittard 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.