01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
EredivisieKoning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg18°1,7 mm26 km/h
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Willem IILow block & direct2–2
HeerenveenBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Heerenveen (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Willem II @ 4.01 (+37 %)
Willem II – Heerenveen · Eredivisie
1 · Willem II 34%X 22%44% Heerenveen · 2
34%
22%
44%
Analysis: Willem II – Heerenveen
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
A clash of styles sets the stage as Willem II's direct approach meets Heerenveen's balanced and physical game. The numbers suggest a contest of slight edges, with the visitors more likely to emerge victorious. Despite Willem II's aggressive forward thrusts, Heerenveen's sturdiness and adaptability may prove decisive.
The model leans towards an away victory, offering Heerenveen a 44% probability of taking all three points. With expected goals narrowly favoring the visitors—1.64 to 1.44—Heerenveen's ability to convert chances could tip the balance. Still, the most likely scoreline is an evenly poised 1-1, reflecting both teams' capability to find the back of the net.
In a small head-to-head sample since 2022, Heerenveen won twice, but this weighs less than the current form and expected goals. Willem II's defensive frailties are apparent, conceding an average of 2.8 xGA per match, while Heerenveen is marginally tighter at 2.1. The expectation is a potentially open game with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood for both teams to score, suggesting neither side will keep a clean sheet easily.
A sharper angle emerges in the betting market. Despite Heerenveen's edge, there's significant value in backing the home side. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.91 for a Willem II win. The model rates this outcome at 34%, revealing a notable 33% edge. If the hosts manage to exploit Heerenveen's weaknesses, this could be a profitable play.
Willem IIForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #16xP/match #14Points #16
Key players
- Devin HaenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
- Nathan Noël Romejo Tjoe-A-OnLWBxG 0.28 · xT 0.40
- Kasper BoogaardFxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
HeerenveenForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #17xP/match #17Points #9
Key players
- Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.07
- Maxence RiveraLWxG 0.71 · xT 0.06
- Ringo MeerveldFxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Willem II 34% · Draw 22% · Heerenveen 44%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Willem IIBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,57fair 9,11-6 %
MissMatchresultat - SC HeerenveenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,90fair 7,00-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Willem II – Heerenveen
Predicted score matrix
Heerenveen →
Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–17.3%
0–26.2%
0–33.4%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.2%
1–28.9%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.8%
2–26.4%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,44–1,64
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.73EV+11%
Over 2,559%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Levi Smans to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Devin Haen to score22%
- Gijs Besselink to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Willem II34% probability@4.01PinnacleEV+37%reference odds
- 1 · Willem II34% probability@3.91BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
- 1 · Willem II34% probability@3.91BetssonEV+33%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Willem II | X | 2 · Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 33% 3.91 | 4.02 | 1.77 |
| Betsson | EV+ 33% 3.91 | 4.02 | 1.77 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 33% 3.91 | 4.02 | 1.77 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 37% 4.01 | 4.24 | 1.81 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
1+5 %
27 %22 %
3.82 → 4.01
X-1 %
25 %20 %
4.28 → 4.24
2+1 %
56 %51 %
1.78 → 1.81
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWillem II 0Draw 0Heerenveen 2
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Willem II
Heerenveen
Willem II (2–8)
Heerenveen (3–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Willem II
Heerenveen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Willem II
Heerenveen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Willem II | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 4 |
| xPoints | 2 | 2.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.89 |
| xGA per match | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Willem II | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| xTA per match | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 24 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 198 | 447 |
| Passes against per match | 522 | 406 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 21 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Willem II | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.61 |
| Other | Willem II | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Karst de Leeuw (Willem II) | Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 12 |
| Save % | 60% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Willem II vs Heerenveen according to our model?
The model gives Heerenveen a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Willem II 34%, draw 22%, Heerenveen 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.