EFL ChampionshipToughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton14°6,3 mm28 km/h

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    Bolton WanderersBolton WanderersPossession control
    vs
    West Ham UnitedWest Ham UnitedBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · West Ham United (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Bolton Wanderers @ 4.90 (+77 %)

    Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United · EFL Championship

    1 · Bolton Wanderers 36%X 25%39% West Ham United · 2

    Analysis: Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Bolton Wanderers have stumbled into a rough patch, losing their last three matches in the Championship. Meanwhile, West Ham United's recent form shows they're capitalizing on their balanced style, with a notable 8 points gathered compared to Bolton's 4. The model leans slightly towards West Ham, reflecting their superior xG stats. The visitors average 2.1 xG per match, double that of the hosts, and concede significantly less, with an xGA of 1.1 compared to Bolton's leaky 1.7. This suggests a potential for West Ham to exploit Bolton's defensive vulnerabilities.

    The most likely scoreline, 1-1 at 12%, reflects a close contest, yet the slight edge to West Ham at 39% probability indicates their upper hand. Bolton's possession control might see them hold the ball more, but converting that into goals against a physical West Ham side is the challenge. With expected goals nearly neck and neck, 1.40 for Bolton and 1.34 for West Ham, it's a finely balanced matchup.

    Weather conditions, with rain expected, might suppress some of the attacking flair, but the model still leans slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 52%. Both sides are expected to find the net, indicated by the 56% likelihood of both teams scoring. The defensive solidity of West Ham, combined with Bolton's struggles in recent games, suggest that the clash could be tight, possibly ending in a draw or a narrow West Ham victory.

    However, the standout betting angle here is the value on Bolton at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite West Ham's edge, the model's 36% probability for a Bolton win translates into a 77% expected value edge at those odds. For those who appreciate value, this presents a compelling opportunity despite the cautious indication towards a West Ham advantage.

    Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers
    Form WDLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #21xT #17xP/match #22Points #21
    Key players
    • Thierry Mikael GaleLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
    • Xavier SimonsRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
    • Samuel George DalbyFxG 0.27 · xT -0.02
    West Ham UnitedWest Ham United
    Form DLDWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #9xP/match #5Points #9
    Key players
    • Joel PiroeFxG 0.65 · xT 0.03
    • Jarrod BowenRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.29
    • Konstantinos MavropanosCBxG 0.36 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United

    Predicted score matrix

    West Ham United →
    Bolton Wanderers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.8%
    0–18.3%
    0–25.8%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–08.7%
    1–112.5%
    1–28.1%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.3%
    2–18.5%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,34
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.29EV+11%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.14

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jarrod Bowen to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Samuel George Dalby to score24%
    • Christian Kai John Forino-Joseph to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Bolton Wanderers36% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+77%reference odds
    • 1 · Bolton Wanderers36% probability@4.90BetssonEV+77%reference odds
    • 1 · Bolton Wanderers36% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+77%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Bolton WanderersX2 · West Ham United
    Betsafe
    EV+ 77%
    4.90
    EV+ 0%
    4.05    		1.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 77%
    4.90
    EV+ 0%
    4.05    		1.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 77%
    4.90
    EV+ 0%
    4.05    		1.65
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 63%
    4.50    		4.001.67
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 76%
    4.88
    EV+ 3%
    4.16    		1.63

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 03:35

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    22 %17 %

    4.99 → 4.88

    X+2 %
    26 %21 %

    4.06 → 4.16

    2+2 %
    60 %55 %

    1.60 → 1.63

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Bolton Wanderers have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bolton Wanderers
    West Ham United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bolton Wanderers (4–9)
    West Ham United (11–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 230 passningar, xT 0.38SheehanChris Forino: 197 passningar, xT 0.19ForinoAkinlolu Richard Olamide Famewo: 185 passningar, xT 0.33FamewoLewis Ray Brunt: 159 passningar, xT 0.44BruntJack Elliott Bonham: 155 passningar, xT 0.31BonhamMaxwell John Conway: 144 passningar, xT 0.47ConwayEthan Erhahon: 125 passningar, xT 0.06ErhahonBenjamin Keith Davies: 110 passningar, xT 0.09DaviesThierry Mikael Gale: 84 passningar, xT 0.63GaleXavier Simons: 73 passningar, xT 0.1SimonsGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 60 passningar, xT 0.22Goikoetxea
    West Ham United
    Maximilian Kilman: 345 passningar, xT 0.47KilmanKonstantinos Mavropanos: 260 passningar, xT 0.43MavropanosKyle Walker Peters: 202 passningar, xT 0.23PetersArne Engels: 187 passningar, xT 0.18EngelsOliver Scarles: 156 passningar, xT 0.59ScarlesMads Hermansen: 151 passningar, xT 0.04HermansenManor Solomon: 147 passningar, xT 0.52SolomonLewis Orford: 121 passningar, xT 0.11OrfordJarrod Bowen: 120 passningar, xT 1.33BowenMohamadou Kanté: 112 passningar, xT 0.11KantéJoël Ivo Veltman: 103 passningar, xT 0.28Veltman
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 230 passningar, xT 0.38SheehanChris Forino: 197 passningar, xT 0.19ForinoAkinlolu Richard Olamide Famewo: 185 passningar, xT 0.33FamewoLewis Ray Brunt: 159 passningar, xT 0.44BruntJack Elliott Bonham: 155 passningar, xT 0.31BonhamMaxwell John Conway: 144 passningar, xT 0.47ConwayEthan Erhahon: 125 passningar, xT 0.06ErhahonBenjamin Keith Davies: 110 passningar, xT 0.09DaviesThierry Mikael Gale: 84 passningar, xT 0.63GaleXavier Simons: 73 passningar, xT 0.1SimonsGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 60 passningar, xT 0.22Goikoetxea
    West Ham United
    Maximilian Kilman: 345 passningar, xT 0.47KilmanKonstantinos Mavropanos: 260 passningar, xT 0.43MavropanosKyle Walker Peters: 202 passningar, xT 0.23PetersArne Engels: 187 passningar, xT 0.18EngelsOliver Scarles: 156 passningar, xT 0.59ScarlesMads Hermansen: 151 passningar, xT 0.04HermansenManor Solomon: 147 passningar, xT 0.52SolomonLewis Orford: 121 passningar, xT 0.11OrfordJarrod Bowen: 120 passningar, xT 1.33BowenMohamadou Kanté: 112 passningar, xT 0.11KantéJoël Ivo Veltman: 103 passningar, xT 0.28Veltman

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBolton WanderersWest Ham United
    Points48
    xPoints4.88.5
    xG per match1.12.1
    xGA per match1.71.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.1
    Playing styleBolton WanderersWest Ham United
    Build-up efficiency0.340.27
    Field tilt0.560.63
    xT per match0.881
    xTA per match1.20.92
    Won balls, offensive half2324
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.330.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.27
    Entries into the box per match1217
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.730.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.77
    Passes per match361449
    Passes against per match283304
    Switches of play per match36.434.6
    Long balls per match3833
    Set piecesBolton WanderersWest Ham United
    xG from free kicks0.030.27
    Corners per match7.17.1
    Corners against per match4.35.1
    xG per corner0.020.07
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.760.72
    OtherBolton WanderersWest Ham United
    Throw-in control0.770.68
    The goalkeepersJack Elliott Bonham (Bolton Wanderers)Mads Hermansen (West Ham United)
    Saves1511
    Save %63%73%
    xG prevented44%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bolton Wanderers vs West Ham United according to our model?

    The model gives West Ham United a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bolton Wanderers 36%, draw 25%, West Ham United 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.