Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion: Prediction & Odds (9 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship9 September 2026 20:45 CESTPride Park, Derby15°0,1 mm17 km/h

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Derby CountyLow block & direct

West Bromwich AlbionBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · West Bromwich Albion (38%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.51 (+11 %)

1 · Derby County 33%X 29%38% West Bromwich Albion · 2

33%

29%

38%

Analysis: Derby County – West Bromwich Albion

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

West Bromwich Albion's physical and balanced approach has a subtle edge when they face Derby County. The numbers point to a tense match, with West Brom having both the stronger recent form and better expected goals metrics. The model gives them a slight 38% win probability, compared to Derby's 33%, with a draw at 29%. Derby's direct style of play might not be enough to overcome the visitors' superior xG of 1.3 per match against Derby's 1.2.

Despite Derby's recent dominance in the head-to-head, winning three of the four encounters since 2023, the sample size is too small to override the current form and expected goals data. West Brom's seven points compared to Derby's four in the league standings underscore their stronger form. Furthermore, West Brom's xGA is significantly better at 1.6 compared to Derby's 2.0, suggesting that the visitors are more resilient at the back.

The expected goals suggest a low-scoring affair, aligned with the 1-1 (14%) and 0-1 (12%) scorelines as the most likely outcomes. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at just 41%, with both teams to score at 48%. This indicates a tight, possibly low-scoring contest. Given Derby's direct style and West Brom's physicality, this isn’t shaping up to be a thriller in terms of goals.

With the market slightly underestimating West Brom's potential, there is a hint of value in backing them to win. Bookmakers like Bet365 might offer odds around 2.60 for a West Brom victory, presenting a viable opportunity for those keen on finding value in this matchup. While Derby's home advantage and head-to-head record are factors, West Brom's consistent form and superior metrics make them the more attractive proposition.

Derby County

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #24xT #15xP/match #21Points #17

Key players

Carlton MorrisFxG 0.42 · xT 0.06
Joe WardRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Bobby Lamont ClarkCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.23

West Bromwich Albion

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #20xP/match #17Points #8

Key players

Aune Selland HeggebøFxG 0.61 · xT -0.02
Jayson MolumbyCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Isaac PriceLWxG 0.49 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Derby County – West Bromwich Albion

Predicted score matrix

West Bromwich Albion →

Derby County →

0–010.0%

0–111.6%

0–27.5%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.3%

1–010.2%

1–113.5%

1–28.2%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.8%

2–17.2%

2–24.5%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.1%

3–12.6%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,10–1,25

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.89EV+9%

Over 2,541%

@1.94

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance West Bromwich Albion or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance West Bromwich Albion or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Aune Selland Heggebø to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Aune Selland Heggebø to score24%
Alex James Mowatt to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.532% probability@3.51BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 1.532% probability@3.51BetssonEV+11%reference odds
Under 1.532% probability@3.51NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Derby County	X	2 · West Bromwich Albion
Betsafe	2.95	3.35	2.35
Betsson	2.95	3.35	2.35
Nordicbet	2.95	3.35	2.35
Pinnacle	3.01	EV+ 0% 3.42	2.35

Odds updated 7 Sept, 16:32

Odds movement

1+6 %

35 %30 %

2.83 → 3.01

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.42

2-5 %

42 %37 %

2.47 → 2.35

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.94 → 1.94

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Derby County 3Draw 1West Bromwich Albion 0

Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Derby County

West Bromwich Albion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Derby County (5–7)

West Bromwich Albion (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Derby County

West Bromwich Albion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Derby County

West Bromwich Albion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Derby County	West Bromwich Albion
Points	4	7
xPoints	4.3	4.4
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.12

Playing style	Derby County	West Bromwich Albion
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.46	0.67
xT per match	0.92	0.75
xTA per match	0.97	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	27	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.7	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.78
Passes per match	272	497
Passes against per match	385	382
Switches of play per match	18.5	27.1
Long balls per match	32	25

Set pieces	Derby County	West Bromwich Albion
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	4.4	4.8
Corners against per match	7.1	5.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.57

Other	Derby County	West Bromwich Albion
Throw-in control	0.63	0.81

The goalkeepers	Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County)	Max Oleary (West Bromwich Albion)
Saves	18	14
Save %	72%	74%
xG prevented	51%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion according to our model?

The model gives West Bromwich Albion a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derby County 33%, draw 29%, West Bromwich Albion 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.