01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL ChampionshipSincil Bank, Lincoln16°17 km/h
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Lincoln CityLow block & directvs
SouthamptonPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Lincoln City (42%)
Lincoln City – Southampton · EFL Championship
1 · Lincoln City 42%X 27%31% Southampton · 2
42%
27%
31%
Analysis: Lincoln City – Southampton
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The model gives Lincoln City a 42% chance of winning against Southampton, which is a decent nod towards the hosts despite their points deficit. What stands out is the small expected goals margin: Lincoln City 1.42 to Southampton’s 1.19. This suggests a tightly contested match, skewed slightly by Lincoln’s usual low defence strategy against the visitor's possession-based, high press game.
Southampton holds a slight advantage in xPoints and xG, indicating they create more quality chances. The 2.2 xG per match is telling; if they find their rhythm, Lincoln’s leaky defence—allowing 2.0 xGA per match—could face significant pressure. Yet, the hosts have kept things close in terms of expected outcomes and might find a way to exploit the spaces Southampton’s high press leaves behind.
The most likely scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw at 13%, with a narrow 1-0 victory for Lincoln following closely at 10%. While Southampton has the upper hand in many offensive metrics, the match could still settle into a balanced affair, particularly if Lincoln stays disciplined defensively. The under 2.5 goals probability of 52% aligns well with this, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted when considering total goals.
Despite the small head-to-head sample size, Lincoln’s home advantage shouldn't be dismissed outright. The model lean towards Lincoln City could hint at value. Betting on Lincoln’s win offers an intriguing angle for those valuing the model’s insight over recent form.
In conclusion, a disciplined approach focusing on Lincoln's potential upset is the sharpest angle here. Expect a low-scoring game with the home side standing a credible chance of edging it.
Lincoln CityForm LLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #21xT #12xP/match #11Points #18
Key players
- Ben HouseFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
- Freddie DraperFxG 0.08 · xT -0.01
- Reeco HackettRWxG 0.78 · xT 0.13
SouthamptonForm WDLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Cyle Christopher LarinFxG 0.74 · xT 0.09
- Taylor Jay Harwood-BellisCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
- Jack StephensCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Lincoln City – Southampton
Predicted score matrix
Southampton →
Lincoln City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–18.4%
0–25.2%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.1%
1–112.8%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.2%
3–22.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,42–1,19
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.16EV+10%
Over 2,548%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Robert Nicholas Street to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Cameron Desmond Archer to score25%
- Nathan Dean Joshua Wood-Gordon to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lincoln City42% probability@4.30Betfair ExchangeEV+83%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City42% probability@4.20Bet365EV+78%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City42% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+74%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lincoln City | X | 2 · Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 78% 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Betfair Exchange | EV+ 83% 4.30 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 1.83 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 74% 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Betsson | EV+ 74% 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 74% 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 65% 3.88 | EV+ 5% 3.95 | 1.83 |
Odds updated 3 Sept, 04:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lincoln City
Southampton
Lincoln City (3–5)
Southampton (9–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
Southampton
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
Southampton
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lincoln City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 5.6 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Lincoln City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.2 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 151 | 412 |
| Passes against per match | 434 | 260 |
| Switches of play per match | 18 | 22.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Lincoln City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.3 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| Other | Lincoln City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | George Wickens (Lincoln City) | Daniel Peretz (Southampton) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 7 |
| Save % | 76% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lincoln City vs Southampton according to our model?
The model gives Lincoln City a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln City 42%, draw 27%, Southampton 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.