EFL ChampionshipFratton Park, Portsmouth17°14 km/h

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    PortsmouthPortsmouthCounter-attacks & crosses
    2–0
    Cardiff CityCardiff CityPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Cardiff City (41%)

    Portsmouth – Cardiff City · EFL Championship

    1 · Portsmouth 33%X 26%41% Cardiff City · 2

    Analysis: Portsmouth – Cardiff City

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The critical number here is Cardiff City's 41% chance of victory, as per the model, emphasizing their edge in this matchup against Portsmouth. Despite the home team's slight advantage in expected points (xPoints), the visitors' higher expected goals (xG) suggest their offensive capabilities are more likely to tip the balance. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 1-2, and 0-1—also skew towards a tight contest, yet with Cardiff's possession and high press style potentially breaking down Portsmouth's counter-attack and crossing game.

    Portsmouth's head-to-head edge is built on a small two-match sample since 2023, offering little concrete resistance to the model's lean towards Cardiff. The expected goals per match—1.36 for Portsmouth and 1.53 for Cardiff—demonstrate a marginal offensive advantage for the visitors, supported by their aggressive pressing style, which could disrupt the hosts' rhythm.

    The standout betting angle lies with Cardiff City to win at odds of 2.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model's 41% win probability for Cardiff represents a 16% edge, making this an attractive proposition for value seekers. This calculated risk aligns with Cardiff's pressing style, which may prove decisive in clinching a narrow victory.

    PortsmouthPortsmouth
    Form DLWLL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #14xP/match #15Points #21
    Key players
    • Colby BishopFxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
    • Terry DevlinRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
    • Zak SwansonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
    Cardiff CityCardiff City
    Form LDDDL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #19xT #5xP/match #22Points #19
    Key players
    • Joel Matthew BaganCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
    • Cian Ty AshfordLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
    • Yousef SalechFxG 0.52 · xT -0.02
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Portsmouth 33% · Draw 26% · Cardiff City 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CardiffBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,00fair 8,030 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - PortsmouthBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,84fair 10,22-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Portsmouth – Cardiff City

    Predicted score matrix

    Cardiff City →
    Portsmouth →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.9%
    0–18.2%
    0–26.5%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–07.2%
    1–111.9%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–17.8%
    2–26.0%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.6%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,53
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.24EV+0%
    Over 2,555%
    @2.02EV+12%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Cardiff City or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Cardiff City or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Rubin James Colwill to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Rubin James Colwill to score26%
    • Ebrima Adams to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Cardiff City41% probability@3.10Betfair ExchangeEV+26%reference odds
    • 2 · Cardiff City41% probability@2.89PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Cardiff City41% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PortsmouthX2 · Cardiff City
    Bet3652.553.20
    EV+ 9%
    2.70
    Betfair Exchange2.403.70
    EV+ 26%
    3.10
    Betsafe2.353.45
    EV+ 16%
    2.85
    Betsson2.353.45
    EV+ 16%
    2.85
    Nordicbet2.353.45
    EV+ 16%
    2.85
    Pinnacle2.393.66
    EV+ 17%
    2.89

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 08:32

    Odds movement

    10 %
    43 %38 %

    2.40 → 2.39

    X+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.57 → 3.66

    2+3 %
    36 %31 %

    2.80 → 2.89

    Over 2,5-2 %
    59 %54 %

    1.74 → 1.69

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Portsmouth 1Draw 0Cardiff City 1
    Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Portsmouth
    Cardiff City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Portsmouth (5–8)
    Cardiff City (6–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Portsmouth
    Terry Devlin: 173 passningar, xT 0.48DevlinZak Swanson: 172 passningar, xT 0.17SwansonBenjamin Arthur: 133 passningar, xT 0.11ArthurConor Shaughnessy: 121 passningar, xT 0.2ShaughnessyEbou Adams: 106 passningar, xT 0.42AdamsMarlon Pack: 93 passningar, xT -0.07PackMadiodio Dia: 90 passningar, xT 0.18DiaRocco Robert Shein: 88 passningar, xT 0.19SheinNicolas Schmid: 80 passningar, xT 0.21SchmidAdrian Segecic: 60 passningar, xT -0.1SegecicAbu Bakarr Kamara: 60 passningar, xT 0.3Kamara
    Cardiff City
    Joel Matthew Bagan: 304 passningar, xT 0.5BaganAlexander Sean Pablo Robertson: 265 passningar, xT 0.28RobertsonPerry Tian Hee Ng: 229 passningar, xT 0.56NgGabriel Jeremiah Adedayo Osho: 200 passningar, xT 0.39OshoNathan Wallace Newman Trott: 139 passningar, xT 0.17TrottKrystian Bielik: 123 passningar, xT 0.22BielikCalum Alexander Scanlon: 117 passningar, xT 0.39ScanlonRubin James Colwill: 101 passningar, xT -0.21ColwillCian Ty Ashford: 73 passningar, xT -0.09AshfordOllie Anthony Tanner: 66 passningar, xT 0.95TannerJack Moylan: 61 passningar, xT 0.6Moylan
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Portsmouth
    Terry Devlin: 173 passningar, xT 0.48DevlinZak Swanson: 172 passningar, xT 0.17SwansonBenjamin Arthur: 133 passningar, xT 0.11ArthurConor Shaughnessy: 121 passningar, xT 0.2ShaughnessyEbou Adams: 106 passningar, xT 0.42AdamsMarlon Pack: 93 passningar, xT -0.07PackMadiodio Dia: 90 passningar, xT 0.18DiaRocco Robert Shein: 88 passningar, xT 0.19SheinNicolas Schmid: 80 passningar, xT 0.21SchmidAdrian Segecic: 60 passningar, xT -0.1SegecicAbu Bakarr Kamara: 60 passningar, xT 0.3Kamara
    Cardiff City
    Joel Matthew Bagan: 304 passningar, xT 0.5BaganAlexander Sean Pablo Robertson: 265 passningar, xT 0.28RobertsonPerry Tian Hee Ng: 229 passningar, xT 0.56NgGabriel Jeremiah Adedayo Osho: 200 passningar, xT 0.39OshoNathan Wallace Newman Trott: 139 passningar, xT 0.17TrottKrystian Bielik: 123 passningar, xT 0.22BielikCalum Alexander Scanlon: 117 passningar, xT 0.39ScanlonRubin James Colwill: 101 passningar, xT -0.21ColwillCian Ty Ashford: 73 passningar, xT -0.09AshfordOllie Anthony Tanner: 66 passningar, xT 0.95TannerJack Moylan: 61 passningar, xT 0.6Moylan

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePortsmouthCardiff City
    Points33
    xPoints4.64.1
    xG per match1.41.6
    xGA per match1.41.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.28
    Playing stylePortsmouthCardiff City
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.630.66
    xT per match0.941.2
    xTA per match0.80.76
    Won balls, offensive half2523
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.380.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.380.22
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against1212
    Pass completion %0.730.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.75
    Passes per match335470
    Passes against per match212215
    Switches of play per match2848.3
    Long balls per match3048
    Set piecesPortsmouthCardiff City
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match7.38.2
    Corners against per match3.95.2
    xG per corner0.030.06
    xGA per corner against0.060.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.19
    First touch, defensive corners %0.440.71
    OtherPortsmouthCardiff City
    Throw-in control0.740.84
    The goalkeepersNicolas Schmid (Portsmouth)Nathan Wallace Newman Trott (Cardiff City)
    Saves816
    Save %57%70%
    xG prevented25%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Portsmouth
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Cardiff City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Portsmouth vs Cardiff City according to our model?

    The model gives Cardiff City a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portsmouth 33%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.