Preston North End vs Lincoln City: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship12 September 2026 16:00 CESTDeepdale, Preston15°15,6 mm26 km/h

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Preston North EndLow block & direct

Lincoln CityLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Lincoln City (52%)

1 · Preston North End 23%X 25%52% Lincoln City · 2

23%

25%

52%

Analysis: Preston North End – Lincoln City

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The most likely outcomes include a 1-1 draw (13%) or a narrow 0-1 away win (11%). — combined with the near 50% chances for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, no clear consensus emerges on total goals, keeping this fixture unpredictable in that sense.

Corrected text:

Lincoln City's season has been characterized by a more effective offensive approach compared to their hosts. Averaging 1.8 expected goals per match, the Imps have carved out a tactical edge over Preston, who manage only 1.4 xG. This offensive potency aligns with the model's strong lean towards Lincoln, giving them a 52% chance of claiming victory, compared to Preston's mere 23%.

The matchup pits two teams with similar playing styles against each other: both favor a low defensive line coupled with a direct approach. This tactical mirroring might suggest a tight contest, but Lincoln's superior xG hint at a potential breakthrough. Preston's defence may hold a slight edge with an xGA of 1.3 compared to Lincoln's 1.4, yet it seems insufficient to tilt the scales in their favor.

In terms of points, Lincoln again show a subtle edge with five, outpacing Preston's three. Even in expected points, Lincoln's advantage is maintained—9.3 to Preston's 8.5. These figures, combined with Lincoln's higher probability of scoring, underscore their potential to dominate this fixture.

The weather, with 15.6 mm of rain forecasted, could have some impact on play, though the model's projections—47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score—suggest a fairly balanced expectation of goals rather than a clearly low-scoring affair. The most likely outcomes include a 1-1 draw (13%) or a narrow 0-1 away win (11%).

The sharpest angle remains the betting value on Lincoln City. With odds of 3.05 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this presents a substantial 58% edge, aligning with the model's confidence in an away victory. For those looking to capitalize on the odds, Lincoln City to win is the standout bet.

Preston North End

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #12Points #24

Key players

Alfie Sean DevineRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
Liam LindsayCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Odeluga Joshua OffiahCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17

Lincoln City

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #8xP/match #1Points #19

Key players

Ben HouseFxG 0.42 · xT 0.02
Robert StreetFxG 0.55 · xT 0.29
Reeco HackettFxG 0.35 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Preston North End – Lincoln City

Predicted score matrix

Lincoln City →

Preston North End →

0–08.1%

0–111.2%

0–28.6%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.8%

1–112.7%

1–29.2%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.4%

2–04.4%

2–16.6%

2–24.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.6%

3–12.3%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,07–1,50

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.94EV+1%

Over 2,547%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lincoln City to win52%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lincoln City to win52%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Frederick Charles Draper to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Frederick Charles Draper to score26%
Jordan Andrew Thompson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lincoln City52% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+58%reference odds
2 · Lincoln City52% probability@3.05BetssonEV+58%reference odds
2 · Lincoln City52% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+58%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Preston North End	X	2 · Lincoln City
Betfair Exchange	2.32	3.60	EV+ 55% 3.00
Betsafe	2.28	3.40	EV+ 58% 3.05
Betsson	2.28	3.40	EV+ 58% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.28	3.40	EV+ 58% 3.05
Pinnacle	2.29	3.62	EV+ 52% 2.94

Odds updated 11 Sept, 15:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

44 %39 %

2.33 → 2.29

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.64 → 3.62

2+2 %

35 %30 %

2.87 → 2.94

Over 2,5+2 %

53 %48 %

1.86 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Preston North End

Lincoln City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Preston North End (6–12)

Lincoln City (4–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Lincoln City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Lincoln City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Preston North End	Lincoln City
Points	3	5
xPoints	8.5	9.3
xG per match	1.4	1.8
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.2

Playing style	Preston North End	Lincoln City
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.37
Field tilt	0.42	0.27
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	0.78	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	25	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	10	16
Pass completion %	0.69	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.6
Passes per match	265	194
Passes against per match	387	443
Switches of play per match	17.7	20.6
Long balls per match	25	33

Set pieces	Preston North End	Lincoln City
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.18
Corners per match	3.9	4.8
Corners against per match	5.2	7
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.49

Other	Preston North End	Lincoln City
Throw-in control	0.66	0.72

The goalkeepers	Daniel Lønne Iversen (Preston North End)	George Wickens (Lincoln City)
Saves	18	20
Save %	62%	77%
xG prevented	32%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Preston North End

Fixtures, form & tips

Lincoln City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preston North End vs Lincoln City according to our model?

The model gives Lincoln City a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preston North End 23%, draw 25%, Lincoln City 52%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.