Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship5 September 2026Loftus Road, London18°14 km/h

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Queens Park RangersCounter-attacks & crosses

0–1

MiddlesbroughPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Middlesbrough (51%)

1 · Queens Park Rangers 25%X 25%51% Middlesbrough · 2

25%

51%

Analysis: Queens Park Rangers – Middlesbrough

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Queens Park Rangers have ridden a wave of defensive solidity, conceding just 0.88 expected goals against per match this season. Their knack for soaking up pressure and countering effectively contrasts sharply with Middlesbrough's high-pressing, possession-based approach. Despite the hosts' strength in these metrics, they face a troubling head-to-head record: four consecutive losses to Middlesbrough since 2023. However, the small sample size of these encounters suggests current form and expected goals might hold more weight in predicting this clash.

The market heavily leans towards the visitors, with Middlesbrough holding a 51% probability of victory according to the model. This suggests confidence in their ability to control the game and create chances. Yet, while Middlesbrough are tipped as favorites, Queens Park Rangers' higher xPoints and xG per match indicate that they might be underestimated. The hosts' counter-attacking and crossing prowess could exploit Middlesbrough's potentially overcommitting press.

Despite the visitors' market favor, the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 hint at a closer contest than some might expect. The expected goals are also suggestive of a competitive encounter, with both teams to score pegged at 53%. Given QPR's defensive stats, there's a decent chance they can keep the match tight and grind out a result, even if not a win.

For punters seeking value, Queens Park Rangers' underdog status at odds of 4.50 with Bet365 offers a potential edge. While the model leans towards Middlesbrough, the underlying numbers argue for a closer match. Predict a narrow 1-1 draw, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals based on the attacking profiles and expected goals forecast.

Queens Park Rangers

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #3xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Rumarn Kameron-Scott BurrellFxG 0.36 · xT 0.09
Alfie LloydFxG 0.65 · xT 0.01
Richard KoneFxG 0.79 · xT 0.00

Middlesbrough

Form DWLWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #2xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Callum BrittainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
William LankshearFxG 0.82 · xT 0.07
Luke AylingCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.28

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Queens Park Rangers 25% · Draw 25% · Middlesbrough 51%

Match prediction: Queens Park Rangers – Middlesbrough

Predicted score matrix

Middlesbrough →

Queens Park Rangers →

0–07.0%

0–110.8%

0–29.3%

0–35.1%

0–4+3.1%

1–06.6%

1–111.9%

1–29.6%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.2%

2–03.6%

2–16.0%

2–25.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.7%

3–01.3%

3–12.1%

3–21.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,04–1,67

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.20EV+8%

Over 2,551%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Middlesbrough to win51%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Middlesbrough to win51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Tommy Daniel John Conway to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Tommy Daniel John Conway to score26%
Jonathan Raymond François Varane to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Middlesbrough51% probability@2.24Betfair ExchangeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Middlesbrough51% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Queens Park Rangers	X	2 · Middlesbrough
Bet365	3.40	3.30	EV+ 4% 2.05
Betfair Exchange	3.35	3.50	EV+ 13% 2.24
Pinnacle	3.17	3.72	EV+ 11% 2.20

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1-1 %

33 %28 %

3.20 → 3.17

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.59 → 3.72

2+2 %

46 %41 %

2.16 → 2.20

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Queens Park Rangers 0Draw 0Middlesbrough 4

Goals: 3–13 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Queens Park Rangers

Middlesbrough

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Queens Park Rangers (7–3)

Middlesbrough (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Middlesbrough

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Middlesbrough

The teams in numbers

Performance	Queens Park Rangers	Middlesbrough
Points	10	7
xPoints	8.6	6.2
xG per match	2	1.9
xGA per match	0.88	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.05	0.04

Playing style	Queens Park Rangers	Middlesbrough
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.48	0.67
xT per match	1.3	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	0.65
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.29
Entries into the box per match	15	19
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.75	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.79
Passes per match	334	524
Passes against per match	416	290
Switches of play per match	23.2	30.5
Long balls per match	30	25

Set pieces	Queens Park Rangers	Middlesbrough
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.22
Corners per match	4.5	5.8
Corners against per match	3.7	4.5
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.65
First touch, defensive corners %	0.87	0.89

Other	Queens Park Rangers	Middlesbrough
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers)	Radek Vítek (Middlesbrough)
Saves	9	6
Save %	75%	55%
xG prevented	86%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Queens Park Rangers

Fixtures, form & tips

Middlesbrough

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough according to our model?

The model gives Middlesbrough a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Queens Park Rangers 25%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.