Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship5 September 2026 13:30 CESTbet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent15°15 km/h

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Stoke CityPossession control

Charlton AthleticCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Stoke City (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Charlton Athletic @ 3.58 (+9 %)

1 · Stoke City 42%X 28%31% Charlton Athletic · 2

42%

28%

31%

Analysis: Stoke City – Charlton Athletic

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Charlton Athletic's current momentum is undeniable, coming off the back of three straight wins and having found the net in ten consecutive league matches. Meanwhile, Stoke City are in a dire slump, suffering seven consecutive losses. The model gives the hosts a slight edge with a 42% win probability, but the numbers paint a bleaker picture for them. Their xG per match is just 0.72, starkly lower than Charlton’s 1.1, suggesting they struggle to create quality scoring chances.

Despite Stoke's possession-based style, their inability to capitalize on chances highlights their shortcomings. Charlton's approach, relying on counter-attacks and crosses, seems well-suited to exploit Stoke's vulnerabilities — particularly given the hosts' alarming 2.0 xGA per match. The small head-to-head sample of two matches since 2023 doesn't outweigh the current form and underlying performance metrics, which clearly favor the visitors.

The most likely scoreline leans towards a 1-1 draw (13%), with a 1-0 victory for Stoke (12%) not far behind. Considering Charlton's form and Stoke's defensive frailties, the visitors remain a live threat, though the model still favors Stoke overall.

Stoke City

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #24xGA #23xT #5xP/match #24Points #24

Key players

Sam GallagherRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Ethan Stuart William GalbraithFxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
Jun Ho BaeRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23

Charlton Athletic

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #21xP/match #12Points #1

Key players

Karlan Laughton Ahearne-GrantFxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Lloyd Richard JonesCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Stoke City – Charlton Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Charlton Athletic →

Stoke City →

0–09.4%

0–19.2%

0–25.0%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.8%

1–113.2%

1–26.8%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.2%

2–18.7%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,35–1,05

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.74

Over 2,543%

@2.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Stoke City or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Stoke City or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Samuel James Gallagher to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Samuel James Gallagher to score26%
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Charlton Athletic31% probability@3.58PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic31% probability@3.55Betfair ExchangeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic31% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stoke City	X	2 · Charlton Athletic
Bet365	2.10	3.10	EV+ 4% 3.40
Betfair Exchange	2.16	3.30	EV+ 8% 3.55
Betsafe	2.12	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.50
Betsson	2.12	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.50
Nordicbet	2.12	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.50
Pinnacle	2.11	3.33	EV+ 9% 3.58

Odds updated 3 Sept, 05:16

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Stoke City 1Draw 0Charlton Athletic 1

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Stoke City have lost 7 in a row.
Charlton Athletic come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Charlton Athletic have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Stoke City

Charlton Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Stoke City (3–9)

Charlton Athletic (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Charlton Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Charlton Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Stoke City	Charlton Athletic
Points	0	9
xPoints	2	4.2
xG per match	0.72	1.1
xGA per match	2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.2

Playing style	Stoke City	Charlton Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.35	0.37
xT per match	1.2	0.66
xTA per match	0.82	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.72	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.66
Passes per match	266	260
Passes against per match	373	411
Switches of play per match	18.8	16.7
Long balls per match	25	20

Set pieces	Stoke City	Charlton Athletic
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.11
Corners per match	2.4	5.3
Corners against per match	5.4	5
xG per corner	0	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.14	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.47

Other	Stoke City	Charlton Athletic
Throw-in control	0.82	0.81

The goalkeepers	Viktor Johansson (Stoke City)	Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic)
Saves	7	9
Save %	44%	90%
xG prevented	11%	73%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Stoke City a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stoke City 42%, draw 28%, Charlton Athletic 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.