Swansea City vs Burnley: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship12 September 2026 16:00 CESTSwansea.com Stadium, Swansea17°9,4 mm30 km/h

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Swansea CityPossession control

BurnleyBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Swansea City (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Burnley @ 3.75 (+6 %)

1 · Swansea City 45%X 27%28% Burnley · 2

45%

27%

28%

Analysis: Swansea City – Burnley

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Burnley's scoring streak stands at 11 consecutive league matches, yet they find themselves as underdogs against Swansea City with only a 28% chance of victory. The hosts are favored at 45%, backed by stronger xG numbers and a superior points tally. Despite Burnley's ability to find the net regularly, Swansea's defensive metrics suggest they are well-equipped to control proceedings.

The most likely scorelines tilt towards a 1-1 draw or narrow Swansea wins, such as 1-0 or 2-1. Expected goals further support this balanced outlook, with Swansea slightly ahead at 1.53 against Burnley's 1.26. The model suggests a slight over 2.5 goals chance at 53%, indicating a close match where both teams could score.

While Swansea's recent head-to-heads show two losses to Burnley, the sample size remains small. With a balanced assessment, Swansea's possession style should outmaneuver Burnley's physicality. The betting angle remains sharp: back Swansea for a narrow win, leaning slightly over 2.5 goals.

Swansea City

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #13xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Josh KeyRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
Josh TymonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
Filip LissahRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Burnley

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #16xP/match #19Points #23

Key players

Zian FlemmingFxG 0.94 · xT 0.04
Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Marcus EdwardsRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Swansea City – Burnley

Predicted score matrix

Burnley →

Swansea City →

0–06.5%

0–17.4%

0–24.9%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.0%

1–112.2%

1–27.5%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.2%

2–19.0%

2–25.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.6%

3–14.6%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,26

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.95

Over 2,553%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Elijah Henry Just to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Elijah Henry Just to score21%
Jay Fulton to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Burnley28% probability@3.75Betfair ExchangeEV+6%reference odds
2 · Burnley28% probability@3.55PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Swansea City	X	2 · Burnley
Betfair Exchange	2.10	2.92	EV+ 6% 3.75
Betsafe	2.12	3.45	3.35
Betsson	2.12	3.45	3.35
Nordicbet	2.12	3.45	3.35
Pinnacle	2.07	3.59	EV+ 1% 3.55

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

Odds movement

1-4 %

48 %43 %

2.16 → 2.07

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.54 → 3.59

2+10 %

31 %26 %

3.24 → 3.55

Over 2,5+2 %

53 %48 %

1.86 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Swansea City 0Draw 0Burnley 2

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Swansea City

Burnley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Swansea City (8–4)

Burnley (7–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Swansea City

Burnley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Swansea City

Burnley

The teams in numbers

Performance	Swansea City	Burnley
Points	11	3
xPoints	8.7	6.7
xG per match	1.7	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.35

Playing style	Swansea City	Burnley
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.63	0.44
xT per match	0.95	0.9
xTA per match	0.76	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	14
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	446	389
Passes against per match	282	399
Switches of play per match	26.9	35.3
Long balls per match	32	33

Set pieces	Swansea City	Burnley
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	5	4.8
Corners against per match	4.3	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.68

Other	Swansea City	Burnley
Throw-in control	0.72	0.73

The goalkeepers	Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City)	Max Weiß (Burnley)
Saves	11	13
Save %	73%	50%
xG prevented	77%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Swansea City

Fixtures, form & tips

Burnley

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Swansea City vs Burnley according to our model?

The model gives Swansea City a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Swansea City 45%, draw 27%, Burnley 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.