Swansea City vs Wrexham: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship5 September 2026 21:00 CESTSwansea.com Stadium, Swansea16°16 km/h

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Swansea CityPossession control

WrexhamPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Swansea City (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Wrexham @ 3.36 (+15 %)

1 · Swansea City 39%X 27%34% Wrexham · 2

39%

27%

34%

Analysis: Swansea City – Wrexham

Marcus Johansson · 31 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Swansea City and Wrexham is limited to just two games since 2023, with each team taking one win. This small sample cannot overshadow recent form and expected goals data, where Swansea shows a stronger edge. The hosts are unbeaten in their last six league matches, highlighting a consistency that Wrexham has struggled to match this season. Despite Wrexham's possession control approach, they have only managed two points compared to Swansea's seven, indicating a gap in converting possession into results.

In terms of playing style, both teams favor a possession-based game. This could lead to a midfield battle where control of the ball is prioritized over direct attacking play. With expected goals of 1.38 for the Swans and 1.24 for the visitors, the match anticipates closely contested chances rather than an open, high-scoring affair. The model leans slightly toward Swansea with a 39% win probability, but it's a tight contest with Wrexham's 34% chance not far behind.

Weather conditions, including expected rain, may dampen attacking efforts, further aligning with the 49% probability for over 2.5 goals. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 13%, hinting at a balanced encounter where both sides could find the net. The 54% chance for both teams to score supports this narrative, suggesting neither defense is impervious enough to secure a clean sheet.

The sharpest angle lies in Swansea City’s robust recent form and the model's slight favoring of them at home. While the numbers suggest a close game, the value appears in backing the hosts. Considering Bet365 offers odds of 2.50 for a Swansea win, there seems to be a positive expected value in siding with the Swans to edge out a narrow victory on their own turf.

Swansea City

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #11xP/match #10Points #2

Key players

Joseph Amankwaah OpokuRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.02
Josh TymonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Filip LissahRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Wrexham

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #4xP/match #7Points #20

Key players

Kieffer MooreFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
Lewis ObrienCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Callum DoyleCBxG 0.28 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Swansea City – Wrexham

Predicted score matrix

Wrexham →

Swansea City →

0–07.6%

0–18.6%

0–25.6%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.7%

1–112.8%

1–27.7%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.9%

2–18.6%

2–25.3%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.2%

3–14.0%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,24

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.86

Over 2,549%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Adam Uche Idah to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Adam Uche Idah to score23%
Jay Fulton to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Wrexham34% probability@3.36PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
2 · Wrexham34% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Wrexham34% probability@3.35BetssonEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Swansea City	X	2 · Wrexham
Bet365	2.50	3.20	2.70
Betfair Exchange	1.53	3.40	EV+ 2% 3.00
Betsafe	2.18	3.30	EV+ 14% 3.35
Betsson	2.18	3.30	EV+ 14% 3.35
Nordicbet	2.18	3.30	EV+ 14% 3.35
Pinnacle	2.12	3.51	EV+ 15% 3.36

Odds updated 3 Sept, 16:37

Odds movement

1-4 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.12

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.51 → 3.51

2+6 %

32 %27 %

3.18 → 3.36

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.96 → 1.96

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Swansea City 1Draw 0Wrexham 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Swansea City are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Swansea City

Wrexham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Swansea City (5–1)

Wrexham (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Swansea City

Wrexham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Swansea City

Wrexham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Swansea City	Wrexham
Points	7	2
xPoints	4.3	5
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	0.96	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.09

Playing style	Swansea City	Wrexham
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.33
Field tilt	0.63	0.47
xT per match	0.98	1.2
xTA per match	0.68	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.43	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.44	0.36
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	390	332
Passes against per match	225	313
Switches of play per match	17.6	21.2
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Swansea City	Wrexham
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.02
Corners per match	5.7	7.2
Corners against per match	4	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.23
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.65

Other	Swansea City	Wrexham
Throw-in control	0.69	0.76

The goalkeepers	Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City)	Anthony Patterson (Wrexham)
Saves	4	8
Save %	80%	67%
xG prevented	81%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Swansea City vs Wrexham according to our model?

The model gives Swansea City a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Swansea City 39%, draw 27%, Wrexham 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.