West Bromwich Albion vs Queens Park Rangers: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship12 September 2026The Hawthorns, West Bromwich16°2,4 mm23 km/h

West Bromwich AlbionBalanced & physical

Queens Park RangersBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · West Bromwich Albion (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Queens Park Rangers @ 3.60 (+17 %)

1 · West Bromwich Albion 37%X 30%33% Queens Park Rangers · 2

37%

30%

33%

Analysis: West Bromwich Albion – Queens Park Rangers

Marcus Johansson · 7 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The tension in this Championship clash revolves around how Queens Park Rangers, playing a balanced & physical style much like West Bromwich Albion, match up against the hosts' similarly physical approach. Despite the head-to-head advantage favoring the hosts with three wins in their last four meetings, West Brom's expected goals (xG) metrics suggest they might struggle to convert possession into clear chances. This poses a tactical puzzle for a side that prefers to battle in the midfield trenches.

Queens Park Rangers boast superior numbers in key attacking metrics, holding an xG of 1.8 per match compared to West Brom's 1.3. Their ability to generate 0.36 xG within eight seconds of regaining possession underscores their threat on quick transitions. However, the visitors must contend with the home side's physicality, which is likely to test their resilience and adaptability. The rain forecasted, with 8.9 mm expected, should temper the pace, naturally favoring a more robust style of play and possibly stifling open exchanges.

Given the expected goals tally of 1.47 for West Brom and 1.17 for QPR, the model leans towards a tight contest. The most probable scorelines all suggest a close affair, with 1-1 emerging as the favored outcome at 13%. Over 2.5 goals is a coin flip at 49%, while both teams to score is slightly more probable at 54%. The likelihood of a draw or a narrow win aligns with these figures, implying a strategic battle rather than a goal-fest.

From a betting perspective, the model sees value in backing West Brom at 37%, although their underperformance in xPoints (6.1) against QPR's 9.5 might raise eyebrows. However, caution is warranted given QPR's knack for capitalizing on transitional play.

West Bromwich Albion

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #20xP/match #18Points #4

Key players

Aune Selland HeggebøFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
Jayson MolumbyCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Jimmy-Jay MorganLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09

Queens Park Rangers

Form WDWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #3xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Alfie LloydFxG 0.65 · xT 0.01
Rumarn Kameron-Scott BurrellFxG 0.38 · xT 0.11
Ilias ChairLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.34

Match prediction: West Bromwich Albion – Queens Park Rangers

Predicted score matrix

Queens Park Rangers →

West Bromwich Albion →

0–07.5%

0–18.0%

0–24.9%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.1%

1–112.6%

1–27.2%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.0%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.8%

3–14.4%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,47–1,17

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.20EV+6%

Over 2,549%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance West Bromwich Albion or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance West Bromwich Albion or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Isaac Jude Price to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Ilias Emilian Chair to score22%
James Gerard Dunne to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Queens Park Rangers33% probability@3.60Paddy PowerEV+17%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
2 · Queens Park Rangers33% probability@3.36PinnacleEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · West Bromwich Albion	X	2 · Queens Park Rangers
Betfair Exchange	2.00	EV+ 4% 3.45	EV+ 1% 3.10
Paddy Power	1.85	EV+ 8% 3.60	EV+ 17% 3.60
Pinnacle	2.10	EV+ 7% 3.57	EV+ 9% 3.36

Odds updated 10 Sept, 05:10

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

West Bromwich Albion 3Draw 0Queens Park Rangers 1

Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

West Bromwich Albion

Queens Park Rangers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

West Bromwich Albion (8–6)

Queens Park Rangers (7–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

West Bromwich Albion

Queens Park Rangers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

West Bromwich Albion

Queens Park Rangers

The teams in numbers

Performance	West Bromwich Albion	Queens Park Rangers
Points	10	10
xPoints	6.1	9.5
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.11

Playing style	West Bromwich Albion	Queens Park Rangers
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.64	0.52
xT per match	0.78	1.3
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.21
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.82	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.69
Passes per match	474	344
Passes against per match	374	408
Switches of play per match	25.4	23.2
Long balls per match	25	31

Set pieces	West Bromwich Albion	Queens Park Rangers
xG from free kicks	0	0.05
Corners per match	4.8	6
Corners against per match	5.5	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.83

Other	West Bromwich Albion	Queens Park Rangers
Throw-in control	0.83	0.72

The goalkeepers	Max Oleary (West Bromwich Albion)	Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers)
Saves	16	14
Save %	76%	78%
xG prevented	53%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins West Bromwich Albion vs Queens Park Rangers according to our model?

The model gives West Bromwich Albion a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: West Bromwich Albion 37%, draw 30%, Queens Park Rangers 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.