Wrexham vs Burnley: Prediction & Odds (8 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship8 September 2026Racecourse Ground, Wrexham14°1,9 mm22 km/h

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WrexhamPossession control

1–1

BurnleyBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Wrexham (45%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.15 (+22 %)

1 · Wrexham 45%X 28%27% Burnley · 2

45%

28%

27%

Analysis: Wrexham – Burnley

Sofia Andersson · 7 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Burnley's impressive run of scoring in 10 consecutive league matches contrasts starkly with their meager two-point tally. This points to a side that can find the back of the net but struggles to convert that into victories. In contrast, Wrexham's possession-based approach has not only yielded more points but also a superior xPoints tally of 8.5, suggesting they’ve been slightly unlucky not to have more to show for their efforts.

With expected goals favoring Wrexham at 1.52 to Burnley's 1.21, the hosts should feel confident in their ability to create opportunities. Burnley's balanced yet physical style provides a different test, but the model gives Wrexham a clear edge with a 45% win probability compared to the visitors' 27%. This, coupled with the fact that Wrexham has a tighter defense, allowing only 0.84 xGA per match compared to Burnley’s 1.6, underscores the potential for the home side to keep things locked down at the back.

The most likely scorelines tilt slightly towards a 1-1 draw (12%) yet also favor Wrexham winning 1-0 (10%) or 2-1 (9%). This highlights the competitive nature of this matchup, though Wrexham's edge in several metrics suggests they are the more reliable bet. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits almost perfectly balanced at 51%, though with both teams to score clocking in at 55%, a narrow win with goals at both ends seems plausible.

With their consistent form, superior expected metrics, and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities, backing the hosts aligns with the numbers. Expect Wrexham to edge this encounter, most likely 1-1, with the over 2.5 goals lean just shading the under.

Wrexham

Form DDLWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #1xT #10xP/match #6Points #16

Key players

Kieffer MooreFxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
Max George CleworthCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Callum DoyleCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.12

Burnley

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #14xP/match #20Points #24

Key players

Zian FlemmingFxG 0.94 · xT 0.04
Dastan SatpaevFxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
Marcus EdwardsRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.28

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wrexham 45% · Draw 28% · Burnley 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BurnleyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,20fair 13,10+16 %

Miss

Matchresultat - WrexhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,75fair 8,32+5 %

Miss

Match prediction: Wrexham – Burnley

Predicted score matrix

Burnley →

Wrexham →

0–06.8%

0–17.5%

0–24.8%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.5%

1–112.3%

1–27.3%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.5%

2–19.1%

2–25.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.8%

3–14.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,52–1,21

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.70

Over 2,551%

@2.22EV+13%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score28%
Benjamin Whiteman to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.529% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
Over 3.529% probability@4.15BetssonEV+22%reference odds
Over 3.529% probability@4.15NordicbetEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wrexham	X	2 · Burnley
Betsafe	2.05	3.25	EV+ 0% 3.65
Betsson	2.05	3.25	EV+ 0% 3.65
Nordicbet	2.05	3.25	EV+ 0% 3.65
Pinnacle	2.15	3.40	3.60

Odds updated 8 Sept, 20:29

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.07 to 1.70 (−18%).

1+12 %

57 %37 %

1.93 → 2.15

X-10 %

37 %17 %

3.76 → 3.40

2-3 %

37 %17 %

3.70 → 3.60

Over 2,5+26 %

59 %39 %

1.76 → 2.22

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wrexham

Burnley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wrexham (6–4)

Burnley (6–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Burnley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Burnley

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wrexham	Burnley
Points	6	2
xPoints	8.5	5.2
xG per match	1.2	1
xGA per match	0.84	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.36

Playing style	Wrexham	Burnley
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.45
xT per match	1	0.95
xTA per match	0.87	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	29	15
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.21
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	359	389
Passes against per match	354	392
Switches of play per match	21.3	34.7
Long balls per match	32	32

Set pieces	Wrexham	Burnley
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	5.1	5
Corners against per match	4.7	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.62

Other	Wrexham	Burnley
Throw-in control	0.74	0.71

The goalkeepers	Anthony Patterson (Wrexham)	Max Weiß (Burnley)
Saves	11	9
Save %	73%	43%
xG prevented	50%	25%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wrexham

Fixtures, form & tips

Burnley

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wrexham vs Burnley according to our model?

The model gives Wrexham a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 45%, draw 28%, Burnley 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.