Wrexham vs Southampton: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship19 September 2026Racecourse Ground, Wrexham13°0,8 mm22 km/h

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WrexhamPossession control

SouthamptonPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Wrexham (37%)Soft draw

1 · Wrexham 37%X 29%34% Southampton · 2

37%

29%

34%

Analysis: Wrexham – Southampton

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: A 37% win probability for Wrexham offers an intriguing narrative against Southampton's unbeaten streak in their last five league outings. Although the visitors have a stronger recent run, the model leans toward the hosts, reflecting Wrexham's robust defensive numbers and slightly better in expected points. Southampton's head-to-head advantage in their two matchups since 2023 is a small sample that weighs less on the current form and expected goal tally.

Both teams favor possession play, which may result in a more cautious approach. The expected goals sit close to parity, with Wrexham at 1.32 and Southampton at 1.23, aligning with the 13% likelihood of a 1-1 draw, the most probable scoreline. The over 2.5 goals probability is at 47%, indicating a tilt towards a lower-scoring match, and only a slightly better-than-even chance of both teams finding the net.

Given the model's inclination towards the hosts and Southampton's susceptibility to conceding, Wrexham's defensive solidity could be pivotal in securing a narrow 1-0 victory, which stands as the second most likely outcome at 10%.

Wrexham

Form DLWDD

League ranking xG #14xGA #1xT #6xP/match #6Points #14

Key players

Kieffer MooreFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04
Benjamin WhitemanCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Matthew Lee JamesCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10

Southampton

Form WWDDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #10xP/match #14Points #2

Key players

Cyle Christopher LarinFxG 0.66 · xT 0.03
Ryan Phelim ManningLBxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
Leonardo Weschenfelder ScienzaLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Wrexham – Southampton

Predicted score matrix

Southampton →

Wrexham →

0–08.2%

0–19.3%

0–25.9%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.9%

1–113.0%

1–27.8%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.8%

2–18.3%

2–25.2%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.0%

3–13.7%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,32–1,23

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Leonardo Weschenfelder Scienza to score27%
Benjamin Whiteman to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wrexham 0Draw 0Southampton 2

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Southampton are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wrexham

Southampton

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wrexham (7–5)

Southampton (14–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Southampton

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Southampton

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wrexham	Southampton
Points	7	11
xPoints	9.8	8.3
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	0.95	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.31

Playing style	Wrexham	Southampton
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.51	0.61
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	0.84	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	29	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.77
Passes per match	371	418
Passes against per match	361	278
Switches of play per match	24	22.8
Long balls per match	35	28

Set pieces	Wrexham	Southampton
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.09
Corners per match	4.9	6.7
Corners against per match	4.6	4.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.63

Other	Wrexham	Southampton
Throw-in control	0.74	0.66

The goalkeepers	Anthony Patterson (Wrexham)	Daniel Peretz (Southampton)
Saves	13	15
Save %	72%	71%
xG prevented	49%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wrexham

Fixtures, form & tips

Southampton

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wrexham vs Southampton according to our model?

The model gives Wrexham a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 37%, draw 29%, Southampton 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.