Blackpool vs Bromley: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL League One12 September 2026 16:00 CESTBloomfield Road, Blackpool16°6,9 mm37 km/h

Läs på svenska

BlackpoolLow block & direct

BromleyLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Blackpool (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bromley @ 4.59 (+15 %)

1 · Blackpool 49%X 26%25% Bromley · 2

49%

26%

25%

Analysis: Blackpool – Bromley

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A 49% chance for Blackpool to win and Bromley's recent three-match losing streak suggest a tilt towards the hosts. However, there's more than meets the eye. Bromley has a 25% chance of victory according to the model, and the odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 4.9 present an enticing value. With a 23% edge, the visitors might be underrated by the market.

Blackpool's attack is in fine form, having scored in nine straight league games. This, combined with their superior expected goals metrics—1.78 to Bromley's 1.14—points to a likely goal for the home side. Yet, Bromley's defense might just be the wild card. Despite their losses, they match Blackpool's defense in expected goals against per match at 2.1, hinting at a tighter contest than form implies.

The most likely scorelines tell the tale of a close encounter, with a 1-1 draw leading the predictions at 11%. Blackpool squeaking out a win at 2-1 or 1-0 follows shortly. Given both teams' direct style and weaker defenses, there's a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams finding the net, though the rain could temper scoring.

With only a small sample size of head-to-head data, current form and expected goals take precedence. Blackpool's edge in both points (7) and expected points (7.8) over Bromley (4 and 5, respectively) gives them the advantage. Nonetheless, the value clearly lies in a Bromley upset at 4.9 odds, a compelling punt for those willing to back against the grain.

In essence, while Blackpool are the favorites, the real opportunity may be exploring the potential of Bromley defying the odds.

Blackpool

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #2xGA #24xT #18xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Cj HamiltonFxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Joshua Luke BowlerRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.20
Jordan Lee WilliamsRBxG 0.18 · xT 0.09

Bromley

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #24xGA #23xT #22xP/match #23Points #21

Key players

Mitchell Bernard PinnockFxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Michael CheekFxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
Kamil Amadu ContehFxG 0.05 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Blackpool – Bromley

Predicted score matrix

Bromley →

Blackpool →

0–05.7%

0–15.8%

0–23.5%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.2%

1–111.2%

1–26.3%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.5%

2–19.7%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.1%

3–15.8%

3–23.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.4%

4+–13.9%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,78–1,14

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.10

Over 2,556%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Blackpool to win49%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Blackpool to win49%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Joshua Luke Bowler to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Joshua Luke Bowler to score37%
Kamil Amadu Conteh to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bromley25% probability@4.59PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
2 · Bromley25% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Bromley25% probability@4.40BetssonEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Blackpool	X	2 · Bromley
Betfair Exchange	1.95	2.36	3.55
Betsafe	1.75	3.45	EV+ 10% 4.40
Betsson	1.75	3.45	EV+ 10% 4.40
Nordicbet	1.75	3.45	EV+ 10% 4.40
Pinnacle	1.77	3.73	EV+ 15% 4.59

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:32

Odds movement

10 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.77

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.85 → 3.73

2+9 %

24 %19 %

4.23 → 4.59

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.74 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Blackpool have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Bromley FC have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Blackpool

Bromley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Blackpool (9–7)

Bromley (4–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Blackpool

Bromley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Blackpool

Bromley

The teams in numbers

Performance	Blackpool	Bromley
Points	7	4
xPoints	7.8	5
xG per match	2.3	0.78
xGA per match	2.1	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.5	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.65

Playing style	Blackpool	Bromley
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.38
Field tilt	0.4	0.35
xT per match	0.79	0.61
xTA per match	1.8	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	26	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	17	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.54
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.52
Passes per match	295	155
Passes against per match	380	344
Switches of play per match	16.6	13.9
Long balls per match	25	32

Set pieces	Blackpool	Bromley
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.03
Corners per match	3.4	2.5
Corners against per match	8.5	5.9
xG per corner	0.08	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.23
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.47

Other	Blackpool	Bromley
Throw-in control	0.66	0.73

The goalkeepers	Bailey Peacock Farrell (Blackpool)	Shamal Tyrell George (Bromley)
Saves	24	27
Save %	77%	66%
xG prevented	51%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Blackpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Bromley

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Blackpool vs Bromley according to our model?

The model gives Blackpool a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Blackpool 49%, draw 26%, Bromley 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.