EFL League OneValley Parade, Bradford15°0,3 mm23 km/h

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    Bradford CityBradford CityPossession control
    1–0
    Mansfield TownMansfield TownPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Bradford City (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mansfield Town @ 4.50 (+17 %)

    Bradford City – Mansfield Town · EFL League One

    1 · Bradford City 48%X 26%26% Mansfield Town · 2

    Analysis: Bradford City – Mansfield Town

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Mansfield Town's high press meets Bradford City's possession control at Valley Parade, with the home side slightly favored by the models and market alike. The Bantams have a robust historical home win rate of 62%, which provides them a psychological edge, even though recent head-to-head encounters offer little from a small sample size.

    Bradford City's ability to maintain possession effectively is reflected in their lower expected goals against (xGA) of 0.99 compared to their visitors' 1.8. This defensive solidity is complemented by their knack for generating opportunities within 8 seconds of winning the ball, where they hold a slight edge. The visitors' high-pressing style, though potent, leaves them vulnerable, as their xGA indicates.

    While the most likely scorelines suggest a 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 victory for Bradford, Mansfield's ability to create chances shouldn't be dismissed. Their higher xG per match at 1.5 hints at a team that can capitalize on defensive lapses, even if they convert less than the models project. The expectation of both teams scoring is marginally above even, at 52%, which aligns well with the anticipated tactical battle.

    For value hunters, the away win at odds of 3.95 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out, offering a 3% edge based on the model's 26% estimation. Despite Bradford City's home strength, Mansfield's potential to disrupt with their press makes this an intriguing proposition for those inclined towards an upset.

    Ultimately, the balance tilts slightly towards Bradford City, whose win remains the most probable overall outcome at 48%, even though 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline. The game's dynamic suggests a cautious lean towards under 2.5 goals, especially given the defensive strengths of the hosts. Yet, the real opportunity lies in the potential value of backing Mansfield Town, a calculated risk that could reward those betting on a surprise.

    Bradford CityBradford City
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #5xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Bobby Michael PointonLWxG 0.55 · xT 0.22
    • Jake Elliott BeesleyFxG 0.35 · xT 0.04
    • Aden William James BaldwinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
    Mansfield TownMansfield Town
    Form WWLWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #7xP/match #15Points #12
    Key players
    • Jon RussellRWxG 0.66 · xT 0.12
    • Rhys OatesFxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
    • Michael John SmithFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Bradford City 48% · Draw 26% · Mansfield Town 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - MansfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,11fair 16,44-20 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - BradfordBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,07fair 9,21-34 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Bradford City – Mansfield Town

    Predicted score matrix

    Mansfield Town →
    Bradford City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–18.1%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–112.7%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.3%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,09
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.92EV+1%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.96

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bradford City to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bradford City to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Ethan Joseph Wheatley to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • William Albert Evans to score18%
    • Jamie Carson McDonnell to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Mansfield Town26% probability@4.50PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Mansfield Town26% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 2 · Mansfield Town26% probability@3.95BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Bradford CityX2 · Mansfield Town
    Bet3651.913.303.75
    Betfair Exchange1.832.963.15
    Betsafe1.853.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.95
    Betsson1.853.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.95
    Nordicbet1.853.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.95
    Pinnacle1.833.63
    EV+ 17%
    4.50

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 3 September — the odds have shortened from 2.00 to 1.89 (−5%).

    10 %
    55 %50 %

    1.83 → 1.83

    X-2 %
    28 %23 %

    3.70 → 3.63

    2+10 %
    25 %20 %

    4.08 → 4.50

    Over 2,5+8 %
    53 %48 %

    1.81 → 1.96

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Bradford City 0Draw 1Mansfield Town 1
    Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Bradford City win 62% of their home matches all-time (26 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bradford City
    Mansfield Town
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bradford City (4–4)
    Mansfield Town (8–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 165 passningar, xT 0.38TourayMacaulay Gillesphey: 144 passningar, xT 0.54GillespheyCallum Alexander Connolly: 122 passningar, xT 0.09ConnollyAden William James Baldwin: 120 passningar, xT 0.22BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 108 passningar, xT 0.94NeufvilleAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 94 passningar, xT 0.45SarcevicMatthew Pennington: 80 passningar, xT 0.14PenningtonJon Douglas McCracken: 61 passningar, xT 0.1McCrackenBobby Michael Pointon: 58 passningar, xT 0.53PointonReece Belfield Welch: 48 passningar, xT 0.15WelchAdam Lee Phillips: 38 passningar, xT 0.47Phillips
    Mansfield Town
    Adedeji Oshilaja: 134 passningar, xT 0.43OshilajaLiam Francis Thompson: 109 passningar, xT 0.05ThompsonSamuel Reed: 99 passningar, xT 0.16ReedLucas Akins: 95 passningar, xT 0.02AkinsRyan Joseph Sweeney: 94 passningar, xT 0.33SweeneyStephen Mclaughlin: 80 passningar, xT 0.56MclaughlinRegan Hendry: 64 passningar, xT 0.66HendryLiam Roberts: 59 passningar, xT 0.08RobertsFrazer Blake Tracy: 58 passningar, xT 0.07TracyElliott Jack Hewitt: 57 passningar, xT 0.07HewittJon Russell: 54 passningar, xT 0.23Russell
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 165 passningar, xT 0.38TourayMacaulay Gillesphey: 144 passningar, xT 0.54GillespheyCallum Alexander Connolly: 122 passningar, xT 0.09ConnollyAden William James Baldwin: 120 passningar, xT 0.22BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 108 passningar, xT 0.94NeufvilleAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 94 passningar, xT 0.45SarcevicMatthew Pennington: 80 passningar, xT 0.14PenningtonJon Douglas McCracken: 61 passningar, xT 0.1McCrackenBobby Michael Pointon: 58 passningar, xT 0.53PointonReece Belfield Welch: 48 passningar, xT 0.15WelchAdam Lee Phillips: 38 passningar, xT 0.47Phillips
    Mansfield Town
    Adedeji Oshilaja: 134 passningar, xT 0.43OshilajaLiam Francis Thompson: 109 passningar, xT 0.05ThompsonSamuel Reed: 99 passningar, xT 0.16ReedLucas Akins: 95 passningar, xT 0.02AkinsRyan Joseph Sweeney: 94 passningar, xT 0.33SweeneyStephen Mclaughlin: 80 passningar, xT 0.56MclaughlinRegan Hendry: 64 passningar, xT 0.66HendryLiam Roberts: 59 passningar, xT 0.08RobertsFrazer Blake Tracy: 58 passningar, xT 0.07TracyElliott Jack Hewitt: 57 passningar, xT 0.07HewittJon Russell: 54 passningar, xT 0.23Russell

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBradford CityMansfield Town
    Points66
    xPoints5.85.1
    xG per match1.31.5
    xGA per match0.991.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.490.45
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.17
    Playing styleBradford CityMansfield Town
    Build-up efficiency0.330.31
    Field tilt0.630.56
    xT per match1.21.1
    xTA per match0.950.93
    Won balls, offensive half3532
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.360.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.350.27
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against911
    Pass completion %0.630.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.550.68
    Passes per match291286
    Passes against per match248378
    Switches of play per match29.224.9
    Long balls per match3936
    Set piecesBradford CityMansfield Town
    xG from free kicks00.04
    Corners per match8.74.1
    Corners against per match5.64.8
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.63
    OtherBradford CityMansfield Town
    Throw-in control0.720.62
    The goalkeepersJon Douglas McCracken (Bradford City)Liam Roberts (Mansfield Town)
    Saves68
    Save %60%62%
    xG prevented55%24%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bradford City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mansfield Town
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bradford City vs Mansfield Town according to our model?

    The model gives Bradford City a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bradford City 48%, draw 26%, Mansfield Town 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.