Burton Albion vs Stevenage: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL League One15 August 2026 16:00 CESTPirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent20°19 km/h

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Burton AlbionLow block & direct

1–1

StevenageLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Stevenage (36%)

1 · Burton Albion 33%X 31%36% Stevenage · 2

33%

31%

36%

Analysis: Burton Albion – Stevenage

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Burton Albion may be riding the momentum of an unbeaten six-match streak, but the numbers suggest that Stevenage holds the edge in this tight League One encounter. Both teams bring similar playing styles to the pitch — low defence and direct — which means they'll likely cancel each other out in many facets of the game. Despite Burton Albion's recent form, the model leans towards Stevenage with a 36% probability of taking all three points, compared to Burton’s 33%.

Historically, it’s a small sample, but they’ve split the spoils in four head-to-heads since 2023, with one win apiece and two draws. Yet, these past outcomes provide little more than a backdrop against current form and expected goals. Stevenage has the upper hand in both points (75 to 54) and expected points (74.6 to 61.1), indicating a more consistent performance over the season. Their xGA per match of 1.0 also suggests a tighter defensive setup compared to Burton's 1.3.

The expected goals metric gives Stevenage a slight nod, 1.13 to Burton's 0.99, hinting at a narrow margin that could define the game. The most likely scorelines — 1-1 at 14% and 0-1 at 13% — point towards a low-scoring affair, something reinforced by a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals. It seems prudent to lean towards the under in what promises to be a close contest, especially when considering typical English weather patterns that could suppress goals further.

Stevenage's slight superiority in seizing opportunities quickly, with an xG of 0.21 within eight seconds of winning the ball, might just be the difference-maker. If you’re looking at this through a betting lens, the standout value lies with Stevenage at odds of 3.22 with Pinnacle, offering a juicy 16% edge against the model's 36% win probability. This is where the sharpest angle emerges, making an away win not just a tempting prospect, but a calculated risk worth considering.

Burton Albion

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #9xP/match #15Points #17

Key players

Jake BeesleyFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
Tyrese ShadeFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.07

Stevenage

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #2xT #24xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Harvey WhiteCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Jamie ReidFxG 0.36 · xT 0.01
Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Burton Albion 33% · Draw 31% · Stevenage 36%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - StevenageBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,41fair 16,58-25 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Burton AlbionBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,24fair 21,43-43 %

Miss

Match prediction: Burton Albion – Stevenage

Predicted score matrix

Stevenage →

Burton Albion →

0–012.3%

0–113.1%

0–27.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.0%

1–011.4%

1–113.8%

1–27.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.0%

2–05.9%

2–16.7%

2–23.8%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.5%

3–01.9%

3–12.2%

3–21.3%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-113%
3.0-012%
4.1-011%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

0,99–1,13

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,564%

@1.58EV+1%

Over 2,536%

@2.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Stevenage or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Stevenage or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Jamie Tyrrell Reid to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Zac Scutt to score26%
George Evans to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Stevenage36% probability@2.83PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.564% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Under 2.564% probability@1.58BetssonEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burton Albion	X	2 · Stevenage
Betsafe	2.65	3.00	2.65
Betsson	2.65	3.00	2.65
Nordicbet	2.72	2.92	2.72
Pinnacle	2.74	3.09	EV+ 2% 2.83

Odds updated 15 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Stevenage win since 11 August — the odds have shortened from 3.22 to 2.83 (−12%).

1+14 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.74

X+3 %

33 %28 %

3.01 → 3.09

2-12 %

34 %29 %

3.22 → 2.83

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Burton Albion 1Draw 2Stevenage 1

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

Key facts

Burton Albion are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burton Albion

Stevenage

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Burton Albion (50–60)

Stevenage (49–49)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burton Albion

Stevenage

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burton Albion

Stevenage

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burton Albion	Stevenage
Points	54	75
xPoints	61.1	74.6
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.16

Playing style	Burton Albion	Stevenage
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.31
Field tilt	0.5	0.47
xT per match	0.88	0.65
xTA per match	0.95	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	29	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.61	0.6
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.57
Passes per match	221	212
Passes against per match	287	291
Switches of play per match	18.4	16.1
Long balls per match	34	27

Set pieces	Burton Albion	Stevenage
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.12
Corners per match	5.2	4.4
Corners against per match	5.1	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.61

Other	Burton Albion	Stevenage
Throw-in control	0.71	0.69

The goalkeepers	Bradley Ray Collins (Burton Albion)	Filip Marschall (Stevenage)
Saves	105	88
Save %	69%	66%
xG prevented	46%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burton Albion vs Stevenage according to our model?

The model gives Stevenage a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burton Albion 33%, draw 31%, Stevenage 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.