EFL League OneEco-Power Stadium, Doncaster17°20 km/h

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    Doncaster RoversDoncaster RoversCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–1
    Notts CountyNotts CountyPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Doncaster Rovers (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+33 %)

    Doncaster Rovers – Notts County · EFL League One

    1 · Doncaster Rovers 40%X 29%31% Notts County · 2

    Analysis: Doncaster Rovers – Notts County

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A curious dichotomy emerges as Doncaster Rovers host Notts County. The hosts are narrowly favored by model probabilities at 40%, yet they trail their visitors in both points and expected points. Notts County's slightly superior xG per match of 1.5 to Doncaster's 0.83 emphasizes the visitors' attacking edge. However, the Rovers’ sturdy defense, conceding just 0.83 xGA per match, counters this advantage.

    Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Doncaster marginally ahead at 1.12 compared to Notts County’s 1.03. Most likely scorelines such as 1-1 (14%) and 1-0 (13%) underline the potential for a low-scoring affair. Both teams’ styles play into this narrative: Doncaster's counter-attack and crossing vs. Notts County's possession control suggest a clash that may struggle to find a rhythm conducive to goals.

    The over 2.5 goals market stands at a mere 36% likelihood, reinforcing the expectation of a match leaning under. Additionally, both teams to score sits at just 44%, reflecting a balanced contest where defenses could dominate. With a small head-to-head sample, recent form and expected goals weigh heavily on analysis, with Doncaster's defensive fortitude against County's attack likely proving decisive.

    For those looking for an edge, there's notable value in backing under 0.5 goals at odds of 11.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 12%, providing a substantial 33% edge. While goalless draws are rare, the numbers hint at a tightly controlled encounter that could stifle scoring chances, making this a play worth considering for value seekers.

    Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers
    Form DWLDD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #2xT #21xP/match #9Points #20
    Key players
    • Alfie Ben MayFxG 0.25 · xT 0.12
    • Owen John Edward BaileyRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
    • Jack Christopher SeniorLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
    Notts CountyNotts County
    Form DDW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #12xP/match #6Points #7
    Key players
    • Callum RobertsFxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
    • Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
    • Hindolo Thomas E. MustaphaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.16
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Doncaster Rovers 40% · Draw 29% · Notts County 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Notts CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,90fair 19,93-40 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - DoncasterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,96fair 16,72-58 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Doncaster Rovers – Notts County

    Predicted score matrix

    Notts County →
    Doncaster Rovers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.0%
    0–111.6%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–012.7%
    1–113.8%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.4%
    2–17.5%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–12.8%
    3–21.4%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.0-112%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,12–1,03
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,564%
    @1.88EV+20%
    Over 2,536%
    @1.97

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals64%
    • Luke James Molyneux to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals36%
    • Tyrese Hall to score20%
    • Oliver Lewis Norburn to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 0.512% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
    • Under 0.512% probability@11.00BetssonEV+33%reference odds
    • Under 0.512% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Doncaster RoversX2 · Notts County
    Betsafe2.253.302.95
    Betsson2.253.302.95
    Nordicbet2.253.302.95
    Pinnacle2.28
    EV+ 0%
    3.49    		3.15

    Odds updated 1 Sept, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1+12 %
    50 %40 %

    2.03 → 2.28

    X-6 %
    31 %21 %

    3.72 → 3.49

    2-6 %
    33 %23 %

    3.35 → 3.15

    Over 2,5+4 %
    54 %44 %

    1.90 → 1.97

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Doncaster Rovers
    Notts County
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Doncaster Rovers (3–4)
    Notts County (5–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 111 passningar, xT 0.07ByrneRobbie Gotts: 79 passningar, xT 0.21GottsTommy James Simkin: 77 passningar, xT 0.14SimkinJohn-Alan McGrath: 76 passningar, xT -0.06McGrathGeorge Broadbent: 62 passningar, xT 0.17BroadbentJack Christopher Senior: 53 passningar, xT 0.09SeniorOwen John Edward Bailey: 53 passningar, xT 0.18BaileyAlfie Ben May: 46 passningar, xT 0.31MaySeán Grehan: 41 passningar, xT 0.27GrehanJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09SterryIsaac Hutchinson: 26 passningar, xT 0.01Hutchinson
    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 134 passningar, xT 0.48BedeauLucas Ness: 129 passningar, xT 0.22NessJames Andrew Gibbons: 104 passningar, xT 0.2GibbonsJames Belshaw: 70 passningar, xT 0.17BelshawNick Tsaroulla: 60 passningar, xT 0.74TsaroullaOliver Joseph Cooper: 46 passningar, xT 0.52CooperDarius Lipsiuc: 39 passningar, xT 0.06LipsiucRory Finneran: 35 passningar, xT 0.03FinneranJack Lucas James Evans: 34 passningar, xT -0.05EvansCallum Roberts: 33 passningar, xT -0.01RobertsDean Graeme Campbell: 32 passningar, xT 0.15Campbell
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 111 passningar, xT 0.07ByrneRobbie Gotts: 79 passningar, xT 0.21GottsTommy James Simkin: 77 passningar, xT 0.14SimkinJohn-Alan McGrath: 76 passningar, xT -0.06McGrathGeorge Broadbent: 62 passningar, xT 0.17BroadbentJack Christopher Senior: 53 passningar, xT 0.09SeniorOwen John Edward Bailey: 53 passningar, xT 0.18BaileyAlfie Ben May: 46 passningar, xT 0.31MaySeán Grehan: 41 passningar, xT 0.27GrehanJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09SterryIsaac Hutchinson: 26 passningar, xT 0.01Hutchinson
    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 134 passningar, xT 0.48BedeauLucas Ness: 129 passningar, xT 0.22NessJames Andrew Gibbons: 104 passningar, xT 0.2GibbonsJames Belshaw: 70 passningar, xT 0.17BelshawNick Tsaroulla: 60 passningar, xT 0.74TsaroullaOliver Joseph Cooper: 46 passningar, xT 0.52CooperDarius Lipsiuc: 39 passningar, xT 0.06LipsiucRory Finneran: 35 passningar, xT 0.03FinneranJack Lucas James Evans: 34 passningar, xT -0.05EvansCallum Roberts: 33 passningar, xT -0.01RobertsDean Graeme Campbell: 32 passningar, xT 0.15Campbell

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDoncaster RoversNotts County
    Points25
    xPoints4.65.2
    xG per match0.831.5
    xGA per match0.831.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.22
    Playing styleDoncaster RoversNotts County
    Build-up efficiency0.330.31
    Field tilt0.360.48
    xT per match0.671
    xTA per match1.10.79
    Won balls, offensive half1929
    Pressing intensity0.250.22
    Pressing efficiency0.370.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.3
    Entries into the box per match815
    Entries into the box against2010
    Pass completion %0.640.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.580.67
    Passes per match262273
    Passes against per match311367
    Switches of play per match19.113.7
    Long balls per match3026
    Set piecesDoncaster RoversNotts County
    xG from free kicks00.09
    Corners per match4.84.2
    Corners against per match6.94.6
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.70.79
    OtherDoncaster RoversNotts County
    Throw-in control0.710.7
    The goalkeepersTommy James Simkin (Doncaster Rovers)James Belshaw (Notts County)
    Saves63
    Save %60%50%
    xG prevented62%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Doncaster Rovers
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Notts County
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County according to our model?

    The model gives Doncaster Rovers a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Doncaster Rovers 40%, draw 29%, Notts County 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.