EFL League OneJohn Smith's Stadium, Huddersfield15°0,5 mm22 km/h

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    Huddersfield TownHuddersfield TownPossession control
    1–1
    Notts CountyNotts CountyPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Huddersfield Town (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Notts County @ 4.90 (+33 %)

    Huddersfield Town – Notts County · EFL League One

    1 · Huddersfield Town 47%X 26%27% Notts County · 2

    Analysis: Huddersfield Town – Notts County

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A striking tension defines the matchup between Huddersfield Town and Notts County: the hosts' robust form against the visitors' enticing value odds. Despite a small head-to-head sample, Huddersfield enters the fray unbeaten in their last five league matches. Their momentum is underscored by an impressive streak of scoring in 13 consecutive league games, which speaks volumes about their attacking consistency.

    Numbers don’t lie, and Huddersfield's statistical edge is palpable. They boast better expected goals and expected points, with xG per match at 2.0 compared to Notts County's 1.3. The hosts also hold a slight advantage in expected goals against, with 1.0 versus the visitors' 1.1. Such figures suggest a game that Huddersfield should control, especially given both teams favor possession-based styles. However, possession alone won't decide the match; it's about converting that into goals.

    The model reflects a 47% probability for a Huddersfield win, versus 27% for Notts County, aligning with the most likely tight scorelines: 1-1 or 1-0. While the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 45%, suggesting a more cautious affair, the chance for both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 49%. Given Huddersfield's consistent scoring and the visitors' ability to find the net, a low-scoring draw or narrow home win appears the most probable outcome.

    At odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, Notts County presents a compelling value bet despite the model's lean towards Huddersfield. With a calculated edge of 33%, this is a rare opportunity for the risk-tolerant bettor. While the hosts are statistically favored, the odds on an away upset offer an intriguing angle for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

    Huddersfield TownHuddersfield Town
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #14xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Joe TaylorFxG 0.93 · xT 0.04
    • Derensili Sanches FernandesRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.27
    • Bojan RadulovicFxG 0.55 · xT 0.03
    Notts CountyNotts County
    Form DDWD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #13xP/match #5Points #10
    Key players
    • Callum RobertsFxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
    • Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
    • Luka Benjamin SmythFxG 0.53 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Huddersfield Town 47% · Draw 26% · Notts County 27%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Notts CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,67fair 19,74-10 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - HuddersfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,54fair 9,34-41 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Huddersfield Town – Notts County

    Predicted score matrix

    Notts County →
    Huddersfield Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–112.8%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.1%
    2–19.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.5%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.3%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,01
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @2.09EV+7%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Huddersfield Town to win47%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Huddersfield Town to win47%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Herbert Kane to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Herbert Kane to score29%
    • Oliver Lewis Norburn to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Notts County27% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
    • 2 · Notts County27% probability@4.90BetssonEV+33%reference odds
    • 2 · Notts County27% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Huddersfield TownX2 · Notts County
    Bet3651.673.50
    EV+ 30%
    4.80
    Betfair Exchange1.121.121.18
    Betsafe1.653.60
    EV+ 33%
    4.90
    Betsson1.653.60
    EV+ 33%
    4.90
    Nordicbet1.653.60
    EV+ 33%
    4.90
    Pinnacle1.70
    EV+ 5%
    4.10
    EV+ 25%
    4.62

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.68 → 1.70

    X+3 %
    26 %21 %

    3.98 → 4.10

    2+1 %
    23 %18 %

    4.57 → 4.62

    Over 2,5-3 %
    56 %51 %

    1.83 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Huddersfield Town are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    • Huddersfield Town have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Huddersfield Town
    Notts County
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Huddersfield Town (9–3)
    Notts County (6–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Huddersfield Town
    Radinio Balker: 130 passningar, xT 0.55BalkerIlias Bronkhorst: 129 passningar, xT 0.57BronkhorstMurray Wallace: 126 passningar, xT 0.17WallaceIbane Bowat: 116 passningar, xT 0.16BowatRyan Graham Ledson: 102 passningar, xT 0.3LedsonMatthew Young: 95 passningar, xT 0.18YoungMarcus Anthony Myers-Harness: 84 passningar, xT 0.2Myers-HarnessDerensili Sanches Fernandes: 72 passningar, xT 0.82FernandesAshley Michael Fletcher: 40 passningar, xT 0.05FletcherJoe Taylor: 31 passningar, xT 0.03TaylorArchie Collins: 28 passningar, xT 0.07Collins
    Notts County
    Lucas Ness: 166 passningar, xT 0.28NessJacob Bedeau: 165 passningar, xT 0.55BedeauJames Andrew Gibbons: 142 passningar, xT 0.24GibbonsNick Tsaroulla: 89 passningar, xT 0.82TsaroullaJames Belshaw: 87 passningar, xT 0.21BelshawOliver Joseph Cooper: 73 passningar, xT 0.5CooperRory Finneran: 56 passningar, xT 0.05FinneranConor Grant: 47 passningar, xT -0.04GrantDarius Lipsiuc: 46 passningar, xT 0.05LipsiucJack Lucas James Evans: 40 passningar, xT -0.04EvansCallum Roberts: 39 passningar, xT 0.11Roberts
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Huddersfield Town
    Radinio Balker: 130 passningar, xT 0.55BalkerIlias Bronkhorst: 129 passningar, xT 0.57BronkhorstMurray Wallace: 126 passningar, xT 0.17WallaceIbane Bowat: 116 passningar, xT 0.16BowatRyan Graham Ledson: 102 passningar, xT 0.3LedsonMatthew Young: 95 passningar, xT 0.18YoungMarcus Anthony Myers-Harness: 84 passningar, xT 0.2Myers-HarnessDerensili Sanches Fernandes: 72 passningar, xT 0.82FernandesAshley Michael Fletcher: 40 passningar, xT 0.05FletcherJoe Taylor: 31 passningar, xT 0.03TaylorArchie Collins: 28 passningar, xT 0.07Collins
    Notts County
    Lucas Ness: 166 passningar, xT 0.28NessJacob Bedeau: 165 passningar, xT 0.55BedeauJames Andrew Gibbons: 142 passningar, xT 0.24GibbonsNick Tsaroulla: 89 passningar, xT 0.82TsaroullaJames Belshaw: 87 passningar, xT 0.21BelshawOliver Joseph Cooper: 73 passningar, xT 0.5CooperRory Finneran: 56 passningar, xT 0.05FinneranConor Grant: 47 passningar, xT -0.04GrantDarius Lipsiuc: 46 passningar, xT 0.05LipsiucJack Lucas James Evans: 40 passningar, xT -0.04EvansCallum Roberts: 39 passningar, xT 0.11Roberts

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHuddersfield TownNotts County
    Points106
    xPoints86.7
    xG per match21.3
    xGA per match11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.17
    Playing styleHuddersfield TownNotts County
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.380.47
    xT per match0.90.91
    xTA per match1.10.8
    Won balls, offensive half2128
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.28
    Entries into the box per match1113
    Entries into the box against1212
    Pass completion %0.680.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.68
    Passes per match264273
    Passes against per match362361
    Switches of play per match16.513.1
    Long balls per match3024
    Set piecesHuddersfield TownNotts County
    xG from free kicks0.020.08
    Corners per match44.7
    Corners against per match34.4
    xG per corner0.070.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.83
    OtherHuddersfield TownNotts County
    Throw-in control0.660.73
    The goalkeepersMatthew Young (Huddersfield Town)Lucas Ness (Notts County)
    Saves79
    Save %70%100%
    xG prevented49%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Huddersfield Town
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Notts County
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Huddersfield Town vs Notts County according to our model?

    The model gives Huddersfield Town a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Huddersfield Town 47%, draw 26%, Notts County 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.