Peterborough United vs Sheffield Wednesday: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League One5 September 2026 13:30 CESTWeston Homes Stadium, Peterborough16°17 km/h

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Peterborough UnitedPossession & high press

Sheffield WednesdayPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Peterborough United (55%)

1 · Peterborough United 55%X 25%20% Sheffield Wednesday · 2

55%

25%

20%

Analysis: Peterborough United – Sheffield Wednesday

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model gives Peterborough United a 55% chance of victory, highlighting their edge as hosts despite Sheffield Wednesday's recent points lead. The numbers tell a compelling story: with expected goals showing Peterborough at 1.87 compared to Wednesday's 1.16, the home side's attacking potential stands out. This contrasts with Wednesday's superior xPoints and xG per match, indicating a possible gap between their performances and results.

Peterborough's high press could disrupt Wednesday's possession-heavy style, leading to opportunities in transition. Most likely scorelines suggest a 1-1 draw at 11%, closely followed by a 2-1 win for the hosts. While both teams have shown strengths, Wednesday's xGA of just 0.9 suggests a defensive solidity that may counter Peterborough's attack.

With an over 2.5 goals probability at 58%, expect an open contest. The model's most likely outcome is a Peterborough United win, though the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting a balance that aligns with both teams' styles and statistics. However, the betting value lies with Peterborough United, given their chances and the model's lean.

Peterborough United

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #23xT #5xP/match #21Points #18

Key players

Owura Nsiah EdwardsFxG 0.07 · xT 0.65
Brandon Singh KhelaCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Benjamin Jack WoodsCMxG 0.52 · xT 0.04

Sheffield Wednesday

Form WLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Jamal LoweFxG 1.55 · xT 0.19
Callum SlatteryCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Barry BannanCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Peterborough United – Sheffield Wednesday

Predicted score matrix

Sheffield Wednesday →

Peterborough United →

0–05.1%

0–15.3%

0–23.2%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.7%

1–110.8%

1–26.1%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.3%

3–16.1%

3–23.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.8%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,87–1,16

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.50EV+4%

Over 2,558%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Peterborough United to win55%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Peterborough United to win55%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Jimmy-Jay Morgan to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Jimmy-Jay Morgan to score24%
Liam Jordan Palmer to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Peterborough United55% probability@3.10Bet365EV+71%reference odds
1 · Peterborough United55% probability@2.92PinnacleEV+61%reference odds
1 · Peterborough United55% probability@2.62Betfair ExchangeEV+45%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Peterborough United	X	2 · Sheffield Wednesday
Bet365	EV+ 71% 3.10	3.50	2.05
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 45% 2.62	2.82	1.96
Pinnacle	EV+ 61% 2.92	3.78	2.21

Odds updated 4 Sept, 02:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Peterborough United win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 3.24 to 2.92 (−10%).

1-10 %

33 %28 %

3.24 → 2.92

X-3 %

27 %22 %

3.89 → 3.78

2+9 %

47 %42 %

2.02 → 2.21

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Peterborough United (2–7)

Sheffield Wednesday (9–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday

The teams in numbers

Performance	Peterborough United	Sheffield Wednesday
Points	3	6
xPoints	2.8	5.3
xG per match	1.3	2.8
xGA per match	2.3	0.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.95
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.12

Playing style	Peterborough United	Sheffield Wednesday
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.28
Field tilt	0.54	0.66
xT per match	1.2	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	0.35
Won balls, offensive half	22	23
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.52
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.51
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	13	6
Pass completion %	0.75	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.68
Passes per match	418	330
Passes against per match	282	177
Switches of play per match	16.1	18.4
Long balls per match	28	31

Set pieces	Peterborough United	Sheffield Wednesday
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	4.8	6.7
Corners against per match	4.5	5.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.71

Other	Peterborough United	Sheffield Wednesday
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Alexander Michael Bass (Peterborough United)	Joseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday)
Saves	12	7
Save %	63%	70%
xG prevented	26%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Peterborough United vs Sheffield Wednesday according to our model?

The model gives Peterborough United a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Peterborough United 55%, draw 25%, Sheffield Wednesday 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.