Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two5 September 2026 16:00 CESTWham Stadium, Accrington14°0,3 mm23 km/h

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Accrington StanleyCounter-attacks & crosses

3–2

Crawley TownPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Accrington Stanley (37%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+30 %)

1 · Accrington Stanley 37%X 28%35% Crawley Town · 2

37%

28%

35%

Analysis: Accrington Stanley – Crawley Town

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The forecast for over 2.5 goals sits at 41%, suggesting a moderate lean towards a lower-scoring affair. However, the real value lies in a bold bet on under 0.5 goals, priced at 13.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model sees this outcome as having a 10% probability, offering a substantial 30% edge. While not a guarantee, it's a tantalizing option for those seeking a high-risk, high-reward punt.

Accrington Stanley's reliance on counter-attacks and crossing defines their tactical identity, a strategy that clashes intriguingly against Crawley Town's possession-focused approach. The model gives a slight edge to the hosts, but the margins are razor-thin, with probabilities of 37% for an Accrington win and 35% for Crawley, reflecting the tightness of the upcoming contest.

Accrington's superior expected points (5.4) and xG per match (1.6) suggest they might be slightly underperforming in terms of results compared to Crawley. However, their defensive frailties, evidenced by an average of 2.0 xGA per game, could be an area Crawley looks to exploit. The visitors, with 4 points compared to Accrington's 2, have shown a sharper edge in translating performances into points.

The head-to-head record since 2023 is negligible, with only two draws, offering little predictive power compared to the season form and expected goals data. This paints a picture of a match likely decided by fine margins, supported by the model's most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%) or a narrow 1-0/0-1 at 11% each.

Accrington Stanley

Form LDLLD

League ranking xG #6xGA #24xT #4xP/match #12Points #23

Key players

Josh Stanley Ronald WoodsFxG 0.63 · xT 0.04
Donald LoveRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.31
Tyler WaltonFxG 0.50 · xT -0.01

Crawley Town

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #23xT #16xP/match #13Points #17

Key players

Louie Shaun WatsonCAMxG 0.36 · xT 0.05
Jude ArthursCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Final score

3 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Accrington Stanley 37% · Draw 28% · Crawley Town 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,51fair 15,61-33 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AccringtonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,07fair 13,86-56 %

Hit

Match prediction: Accrington Stanley – Crawley Town

Predicted score matrix

Crawley Town →

Accrington Stanley →

0–010.0%

0–110.5%

0–26.2%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.2%

1–113.6%

1–27.5%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.0%

2–17.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.8%

3–13.2%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,20–1,13

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@2.15EV+10%

Over 2,541%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Accrington Stanley or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Accrington Stanley or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Isaac Sinclair to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Isaac Sinclair to score23%
Geraldo Bajrami to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.510% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@13.00BetssonEV+30%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Accrington Stanley	X	2 · Crawley Town
Bet365	2.10	3.30	EV+ 11% 3.20
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	1.98	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.45
Betsson	1.98	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.45
Nordicbet	1.98	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.45
Pinnacle	2.24	EV+ 2% 3.59	EV+ 7% 3.10

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Crawley Town win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 3.54 to 3.10 (−12%).

1+11 %

50 %40 %

2.01 → 2.24

X+3 %

31 %21 %

3.49 → 3.59

2-12 %

33 %23 %

3.54 → 3.10

Over 2,5-3 %

60 %50 %

1.77 → 1.72

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Accrington Stanley 0Draw 2Crawley Town 0

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Accrington Stanley

Crawley Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Accrington Stanley (6–9)

Crawley Town (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Accrington Stanley

Crawley Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Accrington Stanley

Crawley Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Accrington Stanley	Crawley Town
Points	2	4
xPoints	5.4	5.3
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.22

Playing style	Accrington Stanley	Crawley Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.48	0.52
xT per match	1.1	0.75
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.35
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.6	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.68
Passes per match	225	336
Passes against per match	244	242
Switches of play per match	21.3	26.8
Long balls per match	35	28

Set pieces	Accrington Stanley	Crawley Town
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.04
Corners per match	3.8	3.2
Corners against per match	5.9	5.9
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.54

Other	Accrington Stanley	Crawley Town
Throw-in control	0.72	0.83

The goalkeepers	Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley)	Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town)
Saves	15	8
Save %	68%	67%
xG prevented	60%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Accrington Stanley

Fixtures, form & tips

Crawley Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town according to our model?

The model gives Accrington Stanley a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Accrington Stanley 37%, draw 28%, Crawley Town 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.