Chesterfield vs Barnet: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two5 September 2026 16:00 CESTSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield16°1,2 mm19 km/h

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ChesterfieldPossession control

3–3

BarnetCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Barnet @ 3.30 (+13 %)

1 · Chesterfield 39%X 27%34% Barnet · 2

39%

27%

34%

Analysis: Chesterfield – Barnet

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Barnet's unbeaten streak of 13 league matches underscores their formidable league form, having scored in each of their last 14 outings. Chesterfield, however, has demonstrated resilience in possession-driven play, reflected in their higher expected goals per match (1.7) compared to Barnet's 1.5. This tactical contrast — the hosts' control against the visitors' counter-attacking prowess — sets the stage for a tightly contested match.

Despite Chesterfield's slight model-backed lean (39% probability of winning), Barnet's momentum is hard to ignore, especially with their marginal advantage in league points (8 vs. Chesterfield’s 4). The expected goals suggest parity, with Chesterfield at 1.33 and Barnet at 1.36; hence, the most likely scoreline remains 1-1 (13%). The small head-to-head sample of two matches, split evenly between the sides, offers limited insight into this encounter.

From a betting perspective, value clearly lies with Barnet. Odds of 3.2 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 9% edge, as the model rates the visitors’ chances at 34%. Given the high likelihood of both teams finding the net (55%), a scoreline of 1-1 appears most probable, with the over 2.5 goals market sitting at an even 50%. The smart play is to back Barnet at those enticing odds.

Chesterfield

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #18xP/match #6Points #16

Key players

Lee BonisFxG 0.60 · xT -0.12
Remeao Andrew HuttonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
Liam MandevilleCMxG 0.29 · xT -0.01

Barnet

Form WWWDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #11xP/match #8Points #2

Key players

Charlie James LakinFxG 0.32 · xT 0.20
Kabongo TshimangaFxG 0.41 · xT -0.05
Oisín Jack GallagherFxG 0.10 · xT 0.03

Final score

3 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Chesterfield 39% · Draw 27% · Barnet 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BarnetBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,91fair 10,27-3 %

Miss

Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,29fair 10,79-42 %

Miss

Match prediction: Chesterfield – Barnet

Predicted score matrix

Barnet →

Chesterfield →

0–07.1%

0–18.9%

0–26.3%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.6%

1–112.6%

1–28.4%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.0%

2–18.2%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.7%

3–13.6%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,33–1,36

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@2.09EV+3%

Over 2,550%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Dilan Kumar Markanday to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Scott John High to score20%
Ryan William Stirk to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Barnet34% probability@3.30Betfair ExchangeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Barnet34% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · Barnet34% probability@3.20BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Chesterfield	X	2 · Barnet
Bet365	2.30	3.30	2.88
Betfair Exchange	2.26	EV+ 0% 3.75	EV+ 13% 3.30
Betsafe	2.05	3.45	EV+ 9% 3.20
Betsson	2.05	3.45	EV+ 9% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.05	3.45	EV+ 9% 3.20
Pinnacle	2.17	3.71	EV+ 7% 3.14

Odds updated 5 Sept, 06:32

Odds movement

1+5 %

47 %42 %

2.06 → 2.17

X-2 %

28 %23 %

3.77 → 3.71

2-1 %

32 %27 %

3.18 → 3.14

Over 2,5+2 %

57 %52 %

1.72 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Chesterfield 1Draw 0Barnet 1

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Barnet are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
Barnet have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chesterfield

Barnet

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chesterfield (3–4)

Barnet (9–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chesterfield

Barnet

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chesterfield

Barnet

The teams in numbers

Performance	Chesterfield	Barnet
Points	4	8
xPoints	6.3	6.2
xG per match	1.7	1.5
xGA per match	1.1	0.98
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.48	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.28

Playing style	Chesterfield	Barnet
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.66	0.69
xT per match	0.74	0.93
xTA per match	0.75	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	30	41
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.48
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.38	0.52
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.55
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.56
Passes per match	423	206
Passes against per match	279	184
Switches of play per match	48.4	12
Long balls per match	51	24

Set pieces	Chesterfield	Barnet
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.04
Corners per match	3.5	7
Corners against per match	2.2	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.41

Other	Chesterfield	Barnet
Throw-in control	0.81	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)	Matthew Aidan Cox (Barnet)
Saves	11	8
Save %	73%	62%
xG prevented	82%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Chesterfield

Fixtures, form & tips

Barnet

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chesterfield vs Barnet according to our model?

The model gives Chesterfield a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 39%, draw 27%, Barnet 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.