EFL League TwoRodney Parade, Newport17°3,2 mm26 km/h

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    Newport CountyNewport CountyLow block & direct
    vs
    Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Fleetwood Town (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.95 (+16 %)

    Newport County – Fleetwood Town · EFL League Two

    1 · Newport County 23%X 25%53% Fleetwood Town · 2

    Analysis: Newport County – Fleetwood Town

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Fleetwood Town holds a commanding probability of 53% to claim victory against Newport County, a team offering just a 23% chance of a win. This imbalance reflects the visitors' impressive unbeaten streak of nine league matches, contrasting sharply with Newport’s struggles. Despite this, both teams lean towards a low-defense, direct playing style, suggesting a game more about control than flair.

    The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to four encounters, with Newport failing to secure a win. However, Newport's expected points slightly edge out Fleetwood’s at 6.7 to 6.4, hinting at potential resilience from the hosts. Expected goals further support Fleetwood Town’s edge at 1.34 compared to Newport's 0.98, painting a picture of a likely low-scoring encounter.

    The most probable outcome sits at a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline (both at 13%). With over 2.5 goals sitting at just 41%, the under seems a prudent route. Notably, a punt on under 0.5 goals, offering an edge with odds of 12.0 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presents significant value. While risky, the model rates it at 10%, giving a 23% edge, a tempting proposition for those seeking calculated risks in a game likely defined by defensive tactics.

    Newport CountyNewport County
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #22xGA #13xT #15xP/match #13Points #20
    Key players
    • Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
    • Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
    • Shaquille GwengweFxG 0.20 · xT 0.02
    Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town
    Form WDDDW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #10xT #7xP/match #16Points #6
    Key players
    • William James DaviesFxG 0.22 · xT 0.01
    • Andrew Francis CannonRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
    • Mark HelmLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Newport County – Fleetwood Town

    Predicted score matrix

    Fleetwood Town →
    Newport County →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.3%
    0–112.8%
    0–28.8%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–09.3%
    1–113.3%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–04.7%
    2–16.3%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.4%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.0-29%
    Expected goals
    0,98–1,34
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.95EV+11%
    Over 2,541%
    @1.87

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Fleetwood Town to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Fleetwood Town to win53%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • William James Davies to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • William James Davies to score22%
    • Ciaran Thomas Brennan to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.559% probability@1.95PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.55BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Newport CountyX2 · Fleetwood Town
    Betsafe3.353.40
    EV+ 10%
    2.08
    Betsson3.353.40
    EV+ 10%
    2.08
    Nordicbet3.353.40
    EV+ 10%
    2.08
    Pinnacle3.253.60
    EV+ 12%
    2.13

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:39

    Odds movement

    10 %
    32 %27 %

    3.25 → 3.25

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.56 → 3.60

    2+1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.10 → 2.13

    Over 2,50 %
    53 %48 %

    1.86 → 1.87

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Newport County 0Draw 2Fleetwood Town 2
    Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Newport County
    Fleetwood Town
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Newport County (9–10)
    Fleetwood Town (6–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Newport County
    Harrison Biggins: 93 passningar, xT 0.97BigginsCameron Pearce Norman: 82 passningar, xT 0.66NormanCiaran Brennan: 81 passningar, xT 0.21BrennanJordan Wright: 73 passningar, xT 0.29WrightLee Thomas Jenkins: 69 passningar, xT 0.39JenkinsKyle Milne Cameron: 63 passningar, xT 0.1CameronCameron Evans: 36 passningar, xT 0.03EvansThomas Alfred Davies: 27 passningar, xT 0.06DaviesJoe Thomas: 25 passningar, xT 0.04ThomasMatthew Max Dibley-Dias: 24 passningar, xT -0.02Dibley-DiasYahaya Abdoul Bamba: 23 passningar, xT 0.25Bamba
    Fleetwood Town
    Rhys Bennett: 196 passningar, xT 0.55BennettHarrison Neal: 185 passningar, xT 0.2NealFinley Potter: 183 passningar, xT 0.3PotterShaun Rooney: 167 passningar, xT 0.59RooneyLewis McCann: 109 passningar, xT 0.23McCannMark Helm: 109 passningar, xT 0.44HelmJay Lynch: 103 passningar, xT 0.27LynchDaniel Kenny Andrew: 66 passningar, xT 0.74AndrewRaffaele Cirino: 60 passningar, xT 0.06CirinoAndrew Francis Cannon: 54 passningar, xT 0.1CannonChedwyn Michael Evans: 42 passningar, xT 0.16Evans
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Newport County
    Harrison Biggins: 93 passningar, xT 0.97BigginsCameron Pearce Norman: 82 passningar, xT 0.66NormanCiaran Brennan: 81 passningar, xT 0.21BrennanJordan Wright: 73 passningar, xT 0.29WrightLee Thomas Jenkins: 69 passningar, xT 0.39JenkinsKyle Milne Cameron: 63 passningar, xT 0.1CameronCameron Evans: 36 passningar, xT 0.03EvansThomas Alfred Davies: 27 passningar, xT 0.06DaviesJoe Thomas: 25 passningar, xT 0.04ThomasMatthew Max Dibley-Dias: 24 passningar, xT -0.02Dibley-DiasYahaya Abdoul Bamba: 23 passningar, xT 0.25Bamba
    Fleetwood Town
    Rhys Bennett: 196 passningar, xT 0.55BennettHarrison Neal: 185 passningar, xT 0.2NealFinley Potter: 183 passningar, xT 0.3PotterShaun Rooney: 167 passningar, xT 0.59RooneyLewis McCann: 109 passningar, xT 0.23McCannMark Helm: 109 passningar, xT 0.44HelmJay Lynch: 103 passningar, xT 0.27LynchDaniel Kenny Andrew: 66 passningar, xT 0.74AndrewRaffaele Cirino: 60 passningar, xT 0.06CirinoAndrew Francis Cannon: 54 passningar, xT 0.1CannonChedwyn Michael Evans: 42 passningar, xT 0.16Evans

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNewport CountyFleetwood Town
    Points49
    xPoints6.76.4
    xG per match0.921
    xGA per match1.41.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.080.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.2
    Playing styleNewport CountyFleetwood Town
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.310.5
    xT per match0.771.1
    xTA per match11
    Won balls, offensive half3028
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.320.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.34
    Entries into the box per match1012
    Entries into the box against1710
    Pass completion %0.510.67
    Pass completion % under pressure0.520.67
    Passes per match142288
    Passes against per match328298
    Switches of play per match14.418.6
    Long balls per match2933
    Set piecesNewport CountyFleetwood Town
    xG from free kicks0.140.07
    Corners per match2.85.2
    Corners against per match7.14.4
    xG per corner0.050.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.57
    OtherNewport CountyFleetwood Town
    Throw-in control0.790.66
    The goalkeepersJordan Wright (Newport County)Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town)
    Saves1412
    Save %61%80%
    xG prevented34%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Newport County
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fleetwood Town
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Newport County vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?

    The model gives Fleetwood Town a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newport County 23%, draw 25%, Fleetwood Town 53%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    ChesterfieldChesterfield
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.