Northampton Town vs Crawley Town: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two1 September 2026 20:45 CESTSixfields, Northampton16°16 km/h

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Northampton TownPossession control

1–1

Crawley TownPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Crawley Town (37%)

1 · Northampton Town 36%X 27%37% Crawley Town · 2

36%

27%

37%

Analysis: Northampton Town – Crawley Town

Anna Karlsson · 31 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The most intriguing aspect of the Northampton Town vs Crawley Town matchup lies in the razor-thin margin of probabilities. The model gives Crawley a slight edge with a 37% chance of winning, just a hair above Northampton's 36%. This sets the stage for a tense battle, where every decision on the pitch could tip the scale. Despite Crawley being marginally favored to win, it's their defensive frailty that could turn this game on its head. Crawley's xGA of 2.1 per match is significantly higher than Northampton's 0.61, suggesting that the home side might have opportunities to exploit defensive lapses.

The clash between two teams with similar possession-control styles suggests a tactical showdown, but the expected goals tell a different story. Crawley edges Northampton in xG per match at 1.1 compared to 0.83, indicating a more potent attack. Yet, this offensive prowess is undermined by their porous defense, which Northampton, with their tight defensive record, might be able to capitalize on. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 reflects this balance, with both sides having nearly equal opportunities to strike.

While Northampton leads in expected points with 4.4 against Crawley's 3.4, indicating they have been somewhat unlucky, the reality is that Crawley sits ahead on actual points, 3 to 2. This discrepancy highlights Crawley's knack for grinding out results even when the numbers suggest they shouldn't.

For bettors looking for value, Crawley's odds of 4.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a compelling opportunity. The model rates Crawley's chances of winning at 37%, translating to a substantial 62% edge at these odds. While the over 2.5 goals market is lukewarm at 43%, this game feels like it could swing on a single moment of brilliance or a defensive error. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a tense, low-scoring affair, perhaps ending 1-1, with a lean towards under 2.5 goals. But with the betting value firmly on Crawley at 4.4, it's an enticing prospect for those willing to back the visitors amidst this finely balanced contest.

Northampton Town

Form DLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #1xT #23xP/match #10Points #19

Key players

Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
Lee EvansCDMxG 0.01 · xT -0.01

Crawley Town

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #24xT #21xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Louie Shaun WatsonCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.05
Jude ArthursCMxG 0.24 · xT 0.04

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Northampton Town 36% · Draw 27% · Crawley Town 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,51fair 13,22+17 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,90fair 13,99-58 %

Miss

Match prediction: Northampton Town – Crawley Town

Predicted score matrix

Crawley Town →

Northampton Town →

0–09.3%

0–110.6%

0–26.7%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.3%

1–113.4%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.3%

2–17.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.5%

3–13.1%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,19–1,22

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@2.01EV+9%

Over 2,543%

@1.84

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Crawley Town or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Crawley Town or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Louie Shaun Watson to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Samuel Tobias Hoskins to score19%
Charlie Mel Barker to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Crawley Town37% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+62%reference odds
2 · Crawley Town37% probability@4.40BetssonEV+62%reference odds
2 · Crawley Town37% probability@4.40NordicbetEV+62%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Northampton Town	X	2 · Crawley Town
Betsafe	1.75	3.45	EV+ 62% 4.40
Betsson	1.75	3.45	EV+ 62% 4.40
Nordicbet	1.75	3.45	EV+ 62% 4.40
Pinnacle	1.75	EV+ 8% 3.96	EV+ 62% 4.40

Odds updated 1 Sept, 08:31

Odds movement

1+4 %

57 %52 %

1.68 → 1.75

X+3 %

26 %21 %

3.85 → 3.96

2-6 %

24 %19 %

4.68 → 4.40

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.81 → 1.84

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Northampton Town

Crawley Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Northampton Town (1–2)

Crawley Town (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Crawley Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Crawley Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Northampton Town	Crawley Town
Points	2	3
xPoints	4.4	3.4
xG per match	0.83	1.1
xGA per match	0.61	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Northampton Town	Crawley Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.49	0.38
xT per match	0.51	0.54
xTA per match	0.54	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	29	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.34
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	10	17
Pass completion %	0.68	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.67
Passes per match	300	276
Passes against per match	304	267
Switches of play per match	17.5	17.8
Long balls per match	26	22

Set pieces	Northampton Town	Crawley Town
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	6.8	2.9
Corners against per match	4	6.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.6

Other	Northampton Town	Crawley Town
Throw-in control	0.7	0.85

The goalkeepers	Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town)	Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town)
Saves	4	8
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	23%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Northampton Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Crawley Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Northampton Town vs Crawley Town according to our model?

The model gives Crawley Town a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Northampton Town 36%, draw 27%, Crawley Town 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.