Northampton Town vs Newport County: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two5 September 2026 16:00 CESTSixfields, Northampton16°17 km/h

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Northampton TownPossession control

1–0

Newport CountyLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Northampton Town (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Newport County @ 4.81 (+56 %)

1 · Northampton Town 40%X 28%32% Newport County · 2

40%

28%

32%

Analysis: Northampton Town – Newport County

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Northampton Town's possession-based strategy meets Newport County's direct, low-block approach in a clash that defies the League Two table. Despite Northampton's home ground advantage, the model sees a tight contest, with the hosts' win probability at 40% versus Newport's 32%. The most probable outcome, a 1-1 draw, reflects the narrow margin, with expected goals nearly equal for both sides: Northampton at 1.23 and Newport at 1.14.

While Newport holds a slight edge in actual points (4 to 3) and xPoints (5.6 to 5.2), their defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding 1.6 xGA per match compared to Northampton's 1.1. This defensive fragility offsets their superior 1.0 xG per match, tilting the match's balance towards Northampton's more robust defense.

Interestingly, the market may be undervaluing Newport. With odds of 4.9 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a significant value angle in backing the away side, given the model's implied 32% win probability for Newport. This 59% edge on the offered odds presents a tempting opportunity for punters willing to back the visitors' potential to upset the odds.

Given the style clash and nearly balanced metrics, goals might be at a premium, with the over 2.5 goals market leaning under at 42%. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 48%, suggesting that a tight, low-scoring affair is probable. Newport's defensive gaps and Northampton's control might lead to a gritty 1-0 or 1-1 result, aligning well with the betting numbers.

Ultimately, while Northampton's structured defense and possession could edge them slightly ahead, Newport County's odds provide compelling value for those looking to exploit market inefficiencies. The smart play may lie in those 4.9 odds, representing a sharp angle against a backdrop of evenly matched tactics.

Northampton Town

Form DLDD

League ranking xG #22xGA #5xT #22xP/match #14Points #18

Key players

Nathaniel Opoku OnyinaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.00
Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Newport County

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #15xP/match #11Points #14

Key players

Ciaran BrennanFxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.27 · xT 0.17

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Northampton Town 40% · Draw 28% · Newport County 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Newport CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,25fair 15,33+26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,36fair 13,26-52 %

Miss

Match prediction: Northampton Town – Newport County

Predicted score matrix

Newport County →

Northampton Town →

0–09.7%

0–110.3%

0–26.1%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.1%

1–113.5%

1–27.5%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.1%

2–18.1%

2–24.6%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.9%

3–13.3%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,23–1,14

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.82EV+4%

Over 2,542%

@2.03

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Northampton Town or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Northampton Town or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Samuel Tobias Hoskins to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Samuel Tobias Hoskins to score26%
Dean Graeme Campbell to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Newport County32% probability@4.81PinnacleEV+56%reference odds
2 · Newport County32% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+51%reference odds
2 · Newport County32% probability@4.65BetssonEV+51%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Northampton Town	X	2 · Newport County
Bet365	1.75	3.40	EV+ 40% 4.33
Betfair Exchange	1.09	1.09	1.09
Betsafe	1.72	3.45	EV+ 51% 4.65
Betsson	1.72	3.45	EV+ 51% 4.65
Nordicbet	1.72	3.45	EV+ 51% 4.65
Pinnacle	1.75	EV+ 2% 3.68	EV+ 56% 4.81

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1-1 %

57 %52 %

1.77 → 1.75

X+4 %

28 %23 %

3.53 → 3.68

2+6 %

22 %17 %

4.52 → 4.81

Over 2,5-1 %

49 %44 %

2.05 → 2.03

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Northampton Town

Newport County

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Northampton Town (2–3)

Newport County (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Newport County

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Newport County

The teams in numbers

Performance	Northampton Town	Newport County
Points	3	4
xPoints	5.2	5.6
xG per match	0.82	1
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.32

Playing style	Northampton Town	Newport County
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.37	0.27
xT per match	0.5	0.77
xTA per match	0.75	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.3
Entries into the box per match	10	10
Entries into the box against	12	19
Pass completion %	0.68	0.47
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.51
Passes per match	266	118
Passes against per match	359	340
Switches of play per match	16	11.6
Long balls per match	23	29

Set pieces	Northampton Town	Newport County
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.17
Corners per match	6.1	3.5
Corners against per match	4.1	8.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.67

Other	Northampton Town	Newport County
Throw-in control	0.69	0.77

The goalkeepers	Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town)	Jordan Wright (Newport County)
Saves	9	11
Save %	75%	58%
xG prevented	47%	30%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Northampton Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Newport County

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Northampton Town vs Newport County according to our model?

The model gives Northampton Town a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Northampton Town 40%, draw 28%, Newport County 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.