Northampton Town vs Rotherham United: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two19 September 2026Sixfields, Northampton14°0,6 mm18 km/h

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Northampton TownPossession control

Rotherham UnitedPossession control

The model's lean: X (34%)Soft draw

1 · Northampton Town 33%X 34%34% Rotherham United · 2

33%

34%

Analysis: Northampton Town – Rotherham United

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The model indicates a finely balanced affair between Northampton Town and Rotherham United, with both the draw and the visitors slightly favored at 34%. These odds suggest a tight, tactical battle, likely dominated by defensive set-ups, given the possession-heavy styles of both teams. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 at 14% and 1-0 at 13% emphasize the likelihood of a low-scoring match.

The expected goals figures provide further clarity: Northampton's 1.14 against Rotherham's 1.01 show a negligible difference, reinforcing the idea of a close contest. However, Rotherham's superior xG per match of 1.3 over Northampton's 0.74 points to a better attacking efficiency from the visitors, despite Northampton's slight edge in defensive metrics with a lower xGA of 0.96 versus 1.1. This gives Rotherham a hint of an advantage if they can capitalize on their superior chance creation.

The numbers lean towards under 2.5 goals at 64%, with both teams scoring just 44% of the time, underscoring the defensive control expected in this match. For those looking for value, a draw at 34% is supported by the symmetry in the probabilities, with bookies typically offering appealing odds for such outcomes, making it a sensible play in an otherwise cagey fixture.

Northampton Town

Form DLDDW

League ranking xG #24xGA #2xT #22xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Nathaniel Opoku OnyinaFxG 0.26 · xT 0.00

Rotherham United

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #18xP/match #7Points #17

Key players

Denzel HallRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Paul Philip MullinFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
Lenny AgbaireCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Northampton Town – Rotherham United

Predicted score matrix

Rotherham United →

Northampton Town →

0–012.1%

0–111.4%

0–25.9%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.9%

1–113.8%

1–26.8%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–07.6%

2–17.6%

2–23.9%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.9%

3–12.9%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,14–1,01

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,564%

–

Over 2,536%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rotherham United or draw (X2)62%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rotherham United or draw (X2)62%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans to score30%
Elliott Jordan Moore to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Northampton Town

Rotherham United

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Northampton Town (3–3)

Rotherham United (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Rotherham United

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Rotherham United

The teams in numbers

Performance	Northampton Town	Rotherham United
Points	6	5
xPoints	6.7	7.8
xG per match	0.74	1.3
xGA per match	0.96	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.27

Playing style	Northampton Town	Rotherham United
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.49
xT per match	0.49	0.71
xTA per match	0.75	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.34
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.67	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.67
Passes per match	268	278
Passes against per match	335	309
Switches of play per match	16.3	20.4
Long balls per match	21	29

Set pieces	Northampton Town	Rotherham United
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	5.3	3.5
Corners against per match	3.2	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.69

Other	Northampton Town	Rotherham United
Throw-in control	0.72	0.76

The goalkeepers	Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town)	Ted Cann (Rotherham United)
Saves	11	12
Save %	79%	63%
xG prevented	54%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Northampton Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Rotherham United

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Northampton Town vs Rotherham United according to our model?

The model sees a draw as the most likely outcome: Northampton Town 33%, draw 34%, Rotherham United 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.