Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two12 September 2026 16:00 CESTBoundary Park, Oldham14°6,4 mm21 km/h

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Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

ChesterfieldPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Chesterfield (40%)

1 · Oldham Athletic 33%X 27%40% Chesterfield · 2

33%

27%

40%

Analysis: Oldham Athletic – Chesterfield

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Two encounters since 2023 frame the head-to-head narrative between Oldham and Chesterfield, with the hosts unbeaten thus far. While a limited sample, Oldham's edge adds intrigue. Yet, Chesterfield's 40% model probability underscores their favored status in this matchup. Despite Oldham's slight historical advantage, the visitors' overall form and playing style might turn the tide.

Examining recent performances, Oldham's low defensive profile contrasts sharply with Chesterfield's controlled possession game. The hosts enjoy a marginal edge in points and expected points, yet the expected goals suggest a near parity, with Chesterfield slightly ahead at 1.7 xG per match to Oldham's 1.6. Defensively, Oldham concedes fewer expected goals, providing them with a slight defensive advantage.

The expected weather, particularly the forecasted 17 mm of rain, could suppress scoring, aligning with the model's underwhelming 48% probability for over 2.5 goals. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, reflect the likely tightness of the contest. The Oldham-Chesterfield clash is poised to be a closely-fought encounter, with both teams likely to score, indicated by the 53% probability.

In terms of betting value, Chesterfield's away win at odds of 3.25 through Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a compelling opportunity. The model's 40% probability offers a significant 29% edge over the bookmakers' evaluation. With Chesterfield tipped by the model and the potential for tight margins, this odds disparity is the sharpest angle entering the match.

Oldham Athletic

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #23xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
Elliott Lloyd NevittFxG 0.11 · xT 0.01
Favour FawunmiRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.08

Chesterfield

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #7xGA #15xT #11xP/match #8Points #18

Key players

Lee BonisFxG 0.55 · xT 0.02
Liam MandevilleCMxG 0.29 · xT 0.01
Dilan MarkandayRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Oldham Athletic – Chesterfield

Predicted score matrix

Chesterfield →

Oldham Athletic →

0–07.9%

0–19.5%

0–26.5%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.2%

1–113.0%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.1%

2–18.0%

2–25.3%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.6%

3–13.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,31

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.92EV+0%

Over 2,548%

@1.90

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (X2)64%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (X2)64%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score27%
Ryan William Stirk to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Chesterfield40% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
2 · Chesterfield40% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
2 · Chesterfield40% probability@3.15BetssonEV+25%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oldham Athletic	X	2 · Chesterfield
Betsafe	2.15	3.30	EV+ 25% 3.15
Betsson	2.15	3.30	EV+ 25% 3.15
Nordicbet	2.15	3.30	EV+ 25% 3.15
Pinnacle	2.18	3.39	EV+ 32% 3.33

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Oldham Athletic win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.40 to 2.18 (−9%).

1-9 %

44 %39 %

2.40 → 2.18

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.29 → 3.39

2+14 %

33 %28 %

2.92 → 3.33

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.90 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Oldham Athletic 1Draw 1Chesterfield 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oldham Athletic

Chesterfield

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oldham Athletic (7–5)

Chesterfield (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Chesterfield

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Chesterfield

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oldham Athletic	Chesterfield
Points	7	5
xPoints	8.5	7.1
xG per match	1.6	1.7
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.4

Playing style	Oldham Athletic	Chesterfield
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.33
Field tilt	0.5	0.63
xT per match	0.49	0.91
xTA per match	1.1	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.42
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.64	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.7
Passes per match	239	391
Passes against per match	340	255
Switches of play per match	18.5	44
Long balls per match	35	49

Set pieces	Oldham Athletic	Chesterfield
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	6.3	3.6
Corners against per match	5.5	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.59

Other	Oldham Athletic	Chesterfield
Throw-in control	0.74	0.83

The goalkeepers	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)	Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)
Saves	11	14
Save %	73%	67%
xG prevented	55%	74%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oldham Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Chesterfield

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield according to our model?

The model gives Chesterfield a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oldham Athletic 33%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.