Port Vale vs Exeter City: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two12 September 2026 16:00 CESTVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent16°1,3 mm26 km/h

Läs på svenska

Port ValePossession control

Exeter CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.86 (+4 %)

1 · Port Vale 49%X 25%25% Exeter City · 2

49%

25%

Analysis: Port Vale – Exeter City

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Port Vale's defensive unit will be crucial as they host Exeter City, with the stats suggesting a tightly contested battle. Both teams lean on possession control, relying on careful buildup rather than rapid transitions. This strategic overlap might lead to a congested midfield, making it difficult for either side to dominate the goal-scoring charts. Intriguingly, Port Vale's expected goals against (xGA) of 1.0 is slightly better than Exeter's 1.1, which could hint at their ability to resist Exeter's attacking maneuvers.

However, Exeter City arrives with a slight edge in various metrics: they've amassed more points (5) and boast superior underlying stats such as expected points (8.7) and xG per match (1.4). These figures suggest they have been the more consistent side in creating quality chances. Yet, Port Vale's home advantage should not be discounted. The model gives them a 49% win probability, highlighting their potential to edge out a narrow victory.

The forecast of 15.2°C with significant rainfall—15.9 mm expected—can often play a dampening role on scoring. The model's numbers for over 2.5 goals (44%) and both teams to score (49%) reflect this consideration. The most likely outcomes, a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 home win, further reinforce the idea of a low-scoring affair.

Given the tactical styles and weather considerations, the odds for under 2.5 goals present a calculated opportunity. Bettors can find value with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, each offering odds of 1.82. The model rates this outcome as a 56% likelihood, providing a 2% edge. While predictions are never certainties, the data suggests a measured approach: expect a keenly fought contest with a premium on defensive organization and strategic patience.

Port Vale

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #4xT #12xP/match #22Points #24

Key players

Oliver David James LynchFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Jordan Lawrence GabrielRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Exeter City

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #17xP/match #2Points #16

Key players

Jayden WarehamFxG 0.90 · xT 0.00
Reece ColeCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
Edward George Martin JamesCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Port Vale – Exeter City

Predicted score matrix

Exeter City →

Port Vale →

0–09.0%

0–18.8%

0–24.8%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.7%

1–113.1%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.4%

2–18.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.9%

3–14.1%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.2-19%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,39–1,05

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.86EV+2%

Over 2,544%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Port Vale to win49%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Port Vale to win49%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Oliver David James Lynch to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Oliver David James Lynch to score28%
Edward George Martin James to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.86PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.82BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Port Vale	X	2 · Exeter City
Betsafe	1.98	3.30	3.70
Betsson	1.98	3.30	3.70
Nordicbet	1.98	3.30	3.70
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 2.03	3.56	3.60

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:32

Odds movement

1+3 %

49 %44 %

1.98 → 2.03

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.61 → 3.56

2+2 %

29 %24 %

3.52 → 3.60

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

1.96 → 1.98

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Exeter City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (2–7)

Exeter City (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Exeter City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Exeter City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Exeter City
Points	2	5
xPoints	5.3	8.7
xG per match	0.95	1.4
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.2

Playing style	Port Vale	Exeter City
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.57	0.36
xT per match	0.9	0.72
xTA per match	0.43	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	28	31
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.4	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.41	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.64	0.61
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.61
Passes per match	264	209
Passes against per match	219	339
Switches of play per match	18.7	13.7
Long balls per match	31	32

Set pieces	Port Vale	Exeter City
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.09
Corners per match	4.6	4.5
Corners against per match	4.2	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.76	0.48

Other	Port Vale	Exeter City
Throw-in control	0.75	0.7

The goalkeepers	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)	Jack Thomas Bycroft (Exeter City)
Saves	10	16
Save %	59%	80%
xG prevented	36%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Exeter City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Exeter City according to our model?

The model gives Port Vale a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 49%, draw 25%, Exeter City 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.