Rochdale vs Oldham Athletic: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two19 September 2026Spotland, Rochdale12°8,2 mm21 km/h

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RochdalePossession control

Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Oldham Athletic (45%)

1 · Rochdale 31%X 24%45% Oldham Athletic · 2

31%

24%

45%

Analysis: Rochdale – Oldham Athletic

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Oldham Athletic's recent performances suggest a decisive edge over Rochdale, with the visitors holding a commanding position in terms of both actual and expected metrics. The sample size of their head-to-head matchups is limited, so it provides minimal insight compared to current form and expected goals data. The visitors' underlying numbers translate into tangible results, as they lead on points (7 to Rochdale's 3) and expected points (8.5 to 4.3).

Rochdale's possession-based style clashes with Oldham's low defence and direct approach, creating a tactical mismatch in the latter's favor. The hosts have struggled offensively, averaging a mere 0.78 xG per match, which is significantly lower than Oldham's 1.6 xG. Defensively, Rochdale concedes more, with an xGA of 1.5 compared to Oldham's 1.1. This suggests a persistent gap in both offensive creation and defensive solidity.

Given the expected goals of 1.12 for Rochdale and 1.53 for Oldham, the match leans towards a low-scoring affair. The predicted most likely scorelines—1-1, 0-1, and 1-2—support this, pointing towards Oldham's potential to edge out a narrow victory. The weather forecast, with rain expected, could further dampen goal-scoring opportunities, though this is already accounted for in the model's projections.

The sharpest angle for bettors lies in the value on an Oldham Athletic win. The model probabilities give Oldham a 45% chance of victory, suggesting this is an attractive bet. While the over/under 2.5 goals is finely balanced at 49%, the smart money leans slightly under, especially considering the weather's likely impact on play.

Rochdale

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #23xGA #17xT #20xP/match #24Points #22

Key players

Daniel Thomas MossRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
Luke James HannantRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
Ryan Henry EastCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17

Oldham Athletic

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #23xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
Elliott Lloyd NevittFxG 0.11 · xT 0.01
Favour FawunmiRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Rochdale – Oldham Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Oldham Athletic →

Rochdale →

0–07.4%

0–110.4%

0–28.3%

0–34.2%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.5%

1–112.5%

1–29.3%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.5%

2–04.4%

2–16.8%

2–25.2%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.4%

3–01.7%

3–12.5%

3–21.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,12–1,53

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

–

Over 2,549%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (X2)73%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (X2)73%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Calum Graham Kavanagh to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Emmanuel Aghogho Dieseruvwe to score23%
Edward Albert Francis to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rochdale

Oldham Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rochdale (5–10)

Oldham Athletic (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rochdale

Oldham Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rochdale

Oldham Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rochdale	Oldham Athletic
Points	3	7
xPoints	4.3	8.5
xG per match	0.78	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.06

Playing style	Rochdale	Oldham Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.37
Field tilt	0.47	0.5
xT per match	0.64	0.49
xTA per match	0.86	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	17	29
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	7	11
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.64
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.61
Passes per match	379	239
Passes against per match	252	340
Switches of play per match	22.3	18.5
Long balls per match	33	35

Set pieces	Rochdale	Oldham Athletic
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	4.3	6.3
Corners against per match	5.3	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.59

Other	Rochdale	Oldham Athletic
Throw-in control	0.75	0.74

The goalkeepers	Nils Ramming (Rochdale)	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)
Saves	14	11
Save %	58%	73%
xG prevented	31%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rochdale

Fixtures, form & tips

Oldham Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rochdale vs Oldham Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Oldham Athletic a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 31%, draw 24%, Oldham Athletic 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.