01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Swindon Town or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League TwoCounty Ground, Swindon16°16 km/h
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Swindon TownPossession control3–1
Port ValePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Swindon Town (39%)
Swindon Town – Port Vale · EFL League Two
1 · Swindon Town 39%X 28%33% Port Vale · 2
39%
28%
33%
Analysis: Swindon Town – Port Vale
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Swindon Town enters this matchup with a slight edge in the model probabilities, pegged at 39% to win against Port Vale's 33%, with a draw sitting at 28%. Despite this, the underlying numbers tell a different story. The hosts have managed only 0.46 xG per match, contrasting with the visitors' more robust 1.1 xG. Port Vale also boasts a superior xGA of 1.1 compared to Swindon's concerning 1.7. These figures hint that Port Vale might be more threatening on both ends of the pitch.
The head-to-head data is limited with only two matches, where Port Vale holds a slight advantage with a win and a draw. Swindon's possession control style mirrors that of Vale, making it a clash of similar strategies. Yet, Port Vale's superior expected points and goals suggest they might exploit Swindon's defensive vulnerabilities. The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but with Port Vale's xG advantage, a narrow 1-0 away win at 9% seems plausible.
Given the expected goals and the playing styles, leaning towards over 2.5 goals feels reasonable at 46%. There's value on Port Vale, considering their statistical edges in both attack and defense.
Swindon TownForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #24xGA #21xT #22xP/match #22Points #11
Key players
- Aaron John DrinanFxG 0.11 · xT 0.00
- Mitchell Reece ClarkRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Ben MiddlemasLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Port ValeForm WLLDD
League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #9xP/match #19Points #20
Key players
- Modou Lamin FaalFxG 0.49 · xT 0.01
- Kyle Michael DempseyRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Swindon Town 39% · Draw 28% · Port Vale 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SwindonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,68fair 10,95-2 %
HitMatchresultat - Port ValeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,71fair 14,21-53 %
MissMatch prediction: Swindon Town – Port Vale
Predicted score matrix
Port Vale →
Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–19.1%
0–25.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.5%
1–113.1%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.5%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.8%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,34–1,17
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.97EV+4%
Over 2,546%
@1.87
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Swindon Town or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Oliver James Palmer to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Oliver James Palmer to score30%
- Thomas Andrew Nichols to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Swindon Town39% probability@3.39PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
- 1 · Swindon Town39% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
- 1 · Swindon Town39% probability@3.35BetssonEV+30%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Swindon Town | X | 2 · Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 30% 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Betsson | EV+ 30% 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 30% 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 32% 3.39 | EV+ 5% 3.70 | 2.07 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Port Vale win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.62 to 2.07 (−21%).
1+33 %
43 %23 %
2.55 → 3.39
X+7 %
37 %17 %
3.45 → 3.70
2-21 %
51 %31 %
2.62 → 2.07
Over 2,5-7 %
59 %39 %
2.02 → 1.87
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSwindon Town 0Draw 1Port Vale 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Swindon Town
Port Vale
Swindon Town (2–4)
Port Vale (1–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Swindon Town
Port Vale
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Swindon Town
Port Vale
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Swindon Town | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 2 |
| xPoints | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| xG per match | 0.46 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.02 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.57 |
| Playing style | Swindon Town | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.52 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.52 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 268 | 312 |
| Passes against per match | 296 | 219 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 21.1 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Swindon Town | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 2.4 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 9.8 | 1.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.8 |
| Other | Swindon Town | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Connor Ripley (Swindon Town) | Jackson William Smith (Port Vale) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 7 |
| Save % | 78% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 26% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Swindon Town vs Port Vale according to our model?
The model gives Swindon Town a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Swindon Town 39%, draw 28%, Port Vale 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.