Walsall vs Port Vale: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two19 September 2026Bescot Stadium, Walsall14°1,8 mm18 km/h

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WalsallCounter-attacks & crosses

Port ValePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Walsall (41%)

1 · Walsall 41%X 28%31% Port Vale · 2

41%

28%

31%

Analysis: Walsall – Port Vale

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA has no head-to-head split issue and other stats check out, but two problems need fixing: the claim that "under 2.5 goals slightly favored" contradicts the given 50% over 2.5 goals probability, and the specific "2.45 with Bet365" odds are not supported by any fact provided.

Corrected text:

In the clash between Walsall and Port Vale, the tension lies in how the hosts' counter-attacking style might exploit the visitors' possession-based approach. Walsall's recent form is bolstered by an unbeaten run of five league matches, which suggests they're well-equipped to capitalize on any lapses from a Port Vale side that has struggled to turn possession into points this season. With Walsall's ability to spring deadly counterattacks through crosses, the visitors could find themselves vulnerable despite their higher possession stats.

The odds favor a tight contest, with the model giving Walsall a slight edge at 41% to win, while Port Vale stands at 31%. The most probable outcomes, a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for either side, underscore the expectation of a closely fought encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at an even 50%, reflecting balance rather than an expectation of high scoring in either direction. With Walsall generating an xG of 2.0 per match compared to Port Vale's 0.95, the hosts seem more likely to carve out quality chances, although they might face a stern test against the visitors' tighter defense (1.0 xGA).

When considering head-to-heads, the small sample of just two matches since 2023 (one win each) carries little weight compared to the current form and xG metrics, which lean in favor of Walsall. The league points (9 vs. 2) and expected points (6.8 vs. 5.3) further highlight their edge, hinting at a potential slim victory for the hosts.

A 1-0 scoreline for Walsall emerges as a plausible prediction, with the goals market finely balanced given the evenly split over/under 2.5 goals probability. For those seeking value, Walsall's recent form and offensive potential suggest they could edge out a win in this tactical battle.

Walsall

Form WDWDD

League ranking xG #2xGA #19xT #9xP/match #10Points #5

Key players

Aaron PressleyFxG 0.66 · xT 0.02
Reece SmithLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.25
Courtney Alphonso ClarkeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.32

Port Vale

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #4xT #12xP/match #22Points #24

Key players

Oliver David James LynchFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Jordan Lawrence GabrielRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Walsall – Port Vale

Predicted score matrix

Port Vale →

Walsall →

0–07.2%

0–18.7%

0–26.0%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.9%

1–112.6%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.3%

2–18.3%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.8%

3–13.8%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,36–1,33

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

–

Over 2,550%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Walsall or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Walsall or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Aaron Alex Pressley to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Aaron Alex Pressley to score35%
George William Byers to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Walsall 1Draw 0Port Vale 1

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Walsall are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Walsall

Port Vale

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Walsall (8–4)

Port Vale (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Walsall

Port Vale

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Walsall

Port Vale

The teams in numbers

Performance	Walsall	Port Vale
Points	9	2
xPoints	6.8	5.3
xG per match	2	0.95
xGA per match	1.6	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.39

Playing style	Walsall	Port Vale
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.52	0.57
xT per match	0.99	0.9
xTA per match	1	0.43
Won balls, offensive half	23	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.4
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.41
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.7	0.64
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.62
Passes per match	314	264
Passes against per match	254	219
Switches of play per match	26.9	18.7
Long balls per match	30	31

Set pieces	Walsall	Port Vale
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	6.2	4.6
Corners against per match	5.9	4.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.76

Other	Walsall	Port Vale
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Jed MacAulay Ward (Walsall)	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)
Saves	17	10
Save %	81%	59%
xG prevented	57%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Walsall

Fixtures, form & tips

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Walsall vs Port Vale according to our model?

The model gives Walsall a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Walsall 41%, draw 28%, Port Vale 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.