01 · 2 legs
Safe
- York City to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
EFL League TwoLNER Community Stadium, York16°2,7 mm27 km/h
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York CityPossession controlvs
Swindon TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · York City (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Swindon Town @ 4.99 (+9 %)
York City – Swindon Town · EFL League Two
1 · York City 53%X 25%22% Swindon Town · 2
53%
25%
22%
Analysis: York City – Swindon Town
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
York City and Swindon Town's underlying numbers provide more insight into this fixture than any historical head-to-head record. The model firmly leans towards the hosts with a 53% win probability, suggesting that York's ability to generate high expected goals could prove decisive against Swindon's more modest attacking output.
Despite the hosts sitting two points behind in the league table, their performance metrics tell a different story. York's xG of 1.8 per match significantly outshines Swindon's 1.1, indicating a more potent attack. Moreover, York's xGA (expected goals against) is slightly better at 1.4 compared to Swindon's 1.6, suggesting they might endure less defensive pressure. This combination of efficient attack and solid defense makes York an attractive prospect for this fixture.
The match's goal forecast leans heavily towards over 2.5 goals, with a 63% probability. Both sides employ possession-control strategies, which often translate into higher-scoring games when defenses are somewhat vulnerable. The high likelihood of both teams scoring (62%) further supports the expectation of an open and attacking contest.
The most intriguing betting angle lies with Swindon's odds. Despite being the underdog, the visitors offer value at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering an 8% edge based on the model's 22% win rate estimate. While York is the more likely victor, the potential return on Swindon's win is compelling for those seeking value bets.
York CityForm WDWLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #14xT #1xP/match #19Points #9
Key players
- Oliver Ian BanksCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
- Harry BoyesLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.31
- Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
Swindon TownForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #17xGA #20xT #24xP/match #11Points #2
Key players
- Aaron John DrinanFxG 0.61 · xT 0.01
- Ben MiddlemasLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Matthew Joseph Virtue-ThickCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: York City – Swindon Town
Predicted score matrix
Swindon Town →
York City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–14.5%
0–23.0%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–07.4%
1–19.9%
1–26.1%
1–32.5%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.7%
2–19.7%
2–26.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–05.1%
3–16.5%
3–24.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–15.2%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
2,01–1,26
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.28
Over 2,563%
@1.58EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- York City to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Alexander Lewis Newby to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Alexander Lewis Newby to score25%
- Stephan Negru to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Swindon Town22% probability@4.99PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- 2 · Swindon Town22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Swindon Town22% probability@4.90BetssonEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · York City | X | 2 · Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 3.85 | EV+ 8% 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.62 | 3.85 | EV+ 8% 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 3.85 | EV+ 8% 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | EV+ 5% 4.27 | EV+ 9% 4.99 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38
Odds movement
1-2 %
61 %56 %
1.63 → 1.60
X+5 %
25 %20 %
4.06 → 4.27
2+7 %
22 %17 %
4.68 → 4.99
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
York City
Swindon Town
York City (9–8)
Swindon Town (8–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
York City
Swindon Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
York City
Swindon Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | York City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 10 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 6.8 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.09 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | York City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.4 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.46 |
| xTA per match | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.6 |
| Passes per match | 477 | 236 |
| Passes against per match | 236 | 297 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.2 | 22.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 36 |
| Set pieces | York City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 7.3 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| Other | York City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Alfie Shane McNally (York City) | Connor Ripley (Swindon Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 20 |
| Save % | 53% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins York City vs Swindon Town according to our model?
The model gives York City a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 53%, draw 25%, Swindon Town 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.