Bournemouth vs Everton: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Premier League29 August 2026Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth18°1,8 mm28 km/h

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BournemouthLow block & direct

EvertonBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (52%)

1 · Bournemouth 52%X 26%23% Everton · 2

52%

26%

23%

Analysis: Bournemouth – Everton

Marcus Johansson · 24 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: AFC Bournemouth's 52% win probability signals a clear lean towards the hosts in their upcoming clash with Everton. Bournemouth have crafted a consistent scoring streak, finding the net in nine consecutive league matches. Yet, despite the Cherries' scoring form, their defensive vulnerabilities are underscored by an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.6 per match, which is higher than Everton's 1.3.

The tactical battle will be intriguing: Bournemouth's low defence and direct approach contrasts with Everton's balanced and physical style. The visitors naturally dampen the game’s tempo, while Bournemouth aim to bypass midfield congestion with speed. This could create a dynamic match where Bournemouth's penchant for exploiting defensive gaps might be thwarted by Everton's resilience.

The head-to-head record since 2022 paints a favourable picture for the hosts with five wins out of eight matches. However, with the goal expectancy at 1.73 for Bournemouth against Everton's 1.00, the numbers suggest a narrow margin. The most probable scorelines, 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0, reflect this tightness. Given the forecast of rain, the game might see fewer fluid attacking moves, already anticipated by a modest 51% chance for over 2.5 goals.

Despite Everton's edge in xPoints (1.8 vs Bournemouth's 1.1) and xG per match (1.5 vs 0.49), the model's 52% win probability for the home side suggests value. Bettors may find enticing odds for a Bournemouth win at 2.05 with Betsson and Nordicbet, or 2.02 with Betsafe, representing a 6% and 4% edge respectively. In a matchup where Everton holds the edge in points, xPoints, xG and xGA, but the model still favours Bournemouth, this value cannot be overlooked.

Bournemouth

Form WWDDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #17xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Antoine SemenyoLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.05
Adrien TruffertLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Marcus TavernierCAMxG 0.22 · xT 0.13

Everton

Form DDLLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #7xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Iliman NdiayeCAMxG 0.35 · xT 0.23
Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.12
Harrison ArmstrongCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Bournemouth – Everton

Predicted score matrix

Everton →

Bournemouth →

0–06.9%

0–16.2%

0–23.3%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.0%

1–111.6%

1–25.6%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.8%

2–19.8%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.6%

3–15.6%

3–22.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.6%

4+–13.6%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,73–1,00

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.98

Over 2,551%

@1.90

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bournemouth to win52%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bournemouth to win52%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score35%
James Alan Tarkowski to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bournemouth52% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth52% probability@2.05BetssonEV+6%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth52% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bournemouth	X	2 · Everton
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 2.02	3.45	3.60
Betsson	EV+ 6% 2.05	3.47	3.63
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 2.05	3.45	3.65
Pinnacle	EV+ 8% 2.10	3.54	3.57

Odds updated 25 Aug, 08:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.10

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.52 → 3.54

2-1 %

29 %24 %

3.59 → 3.57

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %49 %

1.86 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 25/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Bournemouth 5Draw 0Everton 3

Goals: 11–9 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Bournemouth have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bournemouth

Everton

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bournemouth (1–2)

Everton (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Everton

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Everton

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bournemouth	Everton
Points	0	3
xPoints	1.1	1.8
xG per match	0.49	1.5
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.7
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.44

Playing style	Bournemouth	Everton
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.17	0.5
xT per match	0.21	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	14	26
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.2
Entries into the box per match	2	17
Entries into the box against	22	7
Pass completion %	0.73	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.73
Passes per match	260	329
Passes against per match	572	483
Switches of play per match	21	24.3
Long balls per match	34	34

Set pieces	Bournemouth	Everton
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.04
Corners per match	3	3.9
Corners against per match	8	0
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.09	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0

Other	Bournemouth	Everton
Throw-in control	0.57	0.46

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)	Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Saves	4	4
Save %	67%	100%
xG prevented	64%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bournemouth vs Everton according to our model?

The model gives Bournemouth a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 52%, draw 26%, Everton 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.