Premier LeagueHill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool14°3,0 mm26 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    EvertonEvertonBalanced & physical
    vs
    Ipswich TownIpswich TownPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Everton (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ipswich Town @ 4.60 (+10 %)

    Everton vs Ipswich Town · Premier League

    1 · Everton 48%X 28%24% Ipswich Town · 2

    Analysis: Everton – Ipswich Town

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Everton holds a slight advantage with a 48% chance of winning, according to the model, and it's a matchup where the hosts' physicality could test Ipswich Town's focus on possession control. The head-to-head record is limited, with just two meetings since 2022, where Everton came out unbeaten. This offers a minor psychological edge but doesn't weigh heavily against current form and expectations.

    The model suggests a low-scoring affair, with Everton expected to find the net 1.43 times compared to Ipswich's 1.09. A 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline at 13%, while Everton sneaking a 1-0 or 2-1 win also holds some probability at 11% and 9%, respectively. With an over/under 2.5 goals probability of 46%, the data aligns with a cautious game plan likely to keep the total goals under 2.5, reflecting Everton's slightly superior xG and defensive metrics.

    Given Ipswich's lower xPoints and higher xGA metrics, Everton's edge in the underlying data suggests a narrow home advantage. Safe bets don't turn heads, but they keep the lights on.

    EvertonEverton
    Form LLWDD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #13xP/match #8Points #8
    Key players
    • Iliman NdiayeCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
    • Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
    • Thierno BarryFxG 0.63 · xT 0.06
    Ipswich TownIpswich Town
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #10xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • EmersonnFxG 0.35 · xT 0.07
    • Leif DavisLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
    • Julio EncisoCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.15

    Match prediction: Everton – Ipswich Town

    Predicted score matrix

    Ipswich Town →
    Everton →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–18.4%
    0–24.8%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,09
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.00EV+8%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.86

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Everton to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Everton to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Thierno Mamadou Barry to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Thierno Mamadou Barry to score27%
    • Azor Matusiwa to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Ipswich Town24% probability@4.60NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Ipswich Town24% probability@4.59BetssonEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Ipswich Town24% probability@4.55BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · EvertonX2 · Ipswich Town
    Betsafe1.78
    EV+ 2%
    3.65
    EV+ 9%
    4.55
    Betsson1.78
    EV+ 2%
    3.65
    EV+ 10%
    4.59
    Nordicbet1.78
    EV+ 2%
    3.65
    EV+ 10%
    4.60
    Pinnacle1.79
    EV+ 4%
    3.72
    EV+ 4%
    4.32

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:14

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    55 %50 %

    1.82 → 1.79

    X+1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.69 → 3.72

    2+2 %
    25 %20 %

    4.23 → 4.32

    Over 2,50 %
    54 %49 %

    1.87 → 1.86

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Everton 1Draw 1Ipswich Town 0
    Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Everton
    Ipswich Town
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Everton (5–3)
    Ipswich Town (4–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Everton
    Vitalii Mykolenko: 105 passningar, xT 0.15MykolenkoJames Tarkowski: 98 passningar, xT 0.14TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BranthwaiteMerlin Röhl: 87 passningar, xT 0.27RöhlKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 86 passningar, xT 0.32HallJordan Pickford: 79 passningar, xT 0.17PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 70 passningar, xT -0.02ArmstrongJames Garner: 66 passningar, xT 0.05GarnerHayden Hackney: 66 passningar, xT 0.09HackneyTyrique George: 64 passningar, xT 0.09GeorgeIliman Ndiaye: 64 passningar, xT 0.29Ndiaye
    Ipswich Town
    Saša Lukić: 122 passningar, xT 0.04LukićJacob Greaves: 114 passningar, xT 0.09GreavesIssa Diop: 114 passningar, xT -0.04DiopDara O'Shea: 87 passningar, xT 0.31O'SheaLeif Davis: 77 passningar, xT 0.28DavisKjell Scherpen: 74 passningar, xT 0.09ScherpenJulio Enciso: 70 passningar, xT 0.24EncisoExequiel Palacios: 63 passningar, xT 0.04PalaciosMarcelino Nunez: 60 passningar, xT 0.01NunezAbdoul Ouattara: 37 passningar, xT 0.01OuattaraAbdul Fatawu: 31 passningar, xT 1.06Fatawu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Everton
    Vitalii Mykolenko: 105 passningar, xT 0.15MykolenkoJames Tarkowski: 98 passningar, xT 0.14TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BranthwaiteMerlin Röhl: 87 passningar, xT 0.27RöhlKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 86 passningar, xT 0.32HallJordan Pickford: 79 passningar, xT 0.17PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 70 passningar, xT -0.02ArmstrongJames Garner: 66 passningar, xT 0.05GarnerHayden Hackney: 66 passningar, xT 0.09HackneyTyrique George: 64 passningar, xT 0.09GeorgeIliman Ndiaye: 64 passningar, xT 0.29Ndiaye
    Ipswich Town
    Saša Lukić: 122 passningar, xT 0.04LukićJacob Greaves: 114 passningar, xT 0.09GreavesIssa Diop: 114 passningar, xT -0.04DiopDara O'Shea: 87 passningar, xT 0.31O'SheaLeif Davis: 77 passningar, xT 0.28DavisKjell Scherpen: 74 passningar, xT 0.09ScherpenJulio Enciso: 70 passningar, xT 0.24EncisoExequiel Palacios: 63 passningar, xT 0.04PalaciosMarcelino Nunez: 60 passningar, xT 0.01NunezAbdoul Ouattara: 37 passningar, xT 0.01OuattaraAbdul Fatawu: 31 passningar, xT 1.06Fatawu

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEvertonIpswich Town
    Points53
    xPoints4.63.7
    xG per match1.31.1
    xGA per match1.71.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.21
    Playing styleEvertonIpswich Town
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.510.32
    xT per match0.710.87
    xTA per match1.20.8
    Won balls, offensive half2820
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.19
    Entries into the box per match137
    Entries into the box against1116
    Pass completion %0.750.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.73
    Passes per match312313
    Passes against per match437479
    Switches of play per match20.417.1
    Long balls per match2623
    Set piecesEvertonIpswich Town
    xG from free kicks0.060
    Corners per match4.93.7
    Corners against per match4.35.4
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.130.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.18
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.44
    OtherEvertonIpswich Town
    Throw-in control0.610.68
    The goalkeepersJordan Pickford (Everton)Kjell Scherpen (Ipswich Town)
    Saves914
    Save %75%67%
    xG prevented81%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Everton
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ipswich Town
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Everton vs Ipswich Town according to our model?

    The model gives Everton a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Everton 48%, draw 28%, Ipswich Town 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ArsenalArsenal
    3–0
    Coventry CityCoventry City
    1 66%X 19%2 15%
    The model called the outcome
    Ipswich TownIpswich Town
    2–1
    SunderlandSunderland
    1 54%X 23%2 23%
    The model called the outcome
    Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    0–1
    Leeds UnitedLeeds United
    1 42%X 29%2 29%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.