Newcastle United vs Bournemouth: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Premier League5 September 2026St James' Park, Newcastle14°7,0 mm27 km/h

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Newcastle UnitedLow block & direct

BournemouthLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Newcastle United (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.41 (+4 %)

1 · Newcastle United 43%X 26%31% Bournemouth · 2

43%

26%

31%

Analysis: Newcastle United – Bournemouth

Erik Lindberg · 31 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Newcastle United's 43% win probability might suggest a solid home advantage, but the numbers tell a more nuanced tale. Despite their higher standing in the table, the hosts haven't bested Bournemouth in their last four encounters, a small but telling sample. While Newcastle's home win percentage is notable, Bournemouth's recent capacity to find the net in 10 straight league matches can't be dismissed lightly. This clash hints at a tight battle more than a clear victory for either side.

Newcastle's expected goals of 1.67 suggest they are set to create opportunities, yet their xG per match of just 1.1 whispers inefficiency. On the flip side, Bournemouth, with an xG per match of 1.7, might feel quietly confident of scoring despite the model's lean towards Newcastle. The defensive struggles of Newcastle are laid bare in their xGA of 2.4 per match, which could give the visitors an edge to exploit.

Weather conditions — especially the forecasted 5 mm of rain — might suppress attacking flair, yet with both sides profiling as low defence and direct play, the gritty tussle could be more likely to produce goals than the numbers suggest. The over 2.5 goals probability at 57% and both teams to score at 59% reflect expectations of a lively encounter, but the soggy pitch might reign in those ambitions slightly.

With the expected goals and probabilities so finely poised, a 1-1 draw, the most likely scoreline at 11%, emerges as a reasonable expectation. Yet, for the risk-averse, the betting value lies elsewhere. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.39, with a 3% edge according to the model's 43% rating. This presents a rare value opportunity in a matchup that might defy the odds — even if it's not the flashiest of bets.

Newcastle United

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #15xP/match #17Points #5

Key players

Anthony ElangaRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.01
Joe WillockLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Lewis HallLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.35

Bournemouth

Form WDDLD

League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #13xP/match #7Points #14

Key players

Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.16 · xT -0.01
Justin KluivertCAMxG 0.67 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Newcastle United – Bournemouth

Predicted score matrix

Bournemouth →

Newcastle United →

0–05.5%

0–16.3%

0–24.3%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.4%

1–111.5%

1–27.2%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.3%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.1%

3–15.2%

3–23.3%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,67–1,29

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.41EV+4%

Over 2,557%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Newcastle United or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Newcastle United or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Joelinton Cássio Apolinário de Lira to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Marcus Joseph Tavernier to score21%
Sandro Tonali to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.543% probability@2.41BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.41BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.41NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Newcastle United	X	2 · Bournemouth
Betsafe	2.20	3.60	3.05
Betsson	2.21	3.62	3.10
Nordicbet	2.20	3.60	3.10
Pinnacle	2.20	3.74	3.17

Odds updated 3 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

45 %40 %

2.32 → 2.20

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.66 → 3.74

2+11 %

34 %29 %

2.85 → 3.17

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 28/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Newcastle United 0Draw 2Bournemouth 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Bournemouth have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Newcastle United win 56% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Newcastle United

Bournemouth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Newcastle United (4–2)

Bournemouth (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Newcastle United

Bournemouth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Newcastle United

Bournemouth

The teams in numbers

Performance	Newcastle United	Bournemouth
Points	4	1
xPoints	1.8	3
xG per match	1.1	1.7
xGA per match	2.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.01
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.86	0.03

Playing style	Newcastle United	Bournemouth
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.33	0.34
xT per match	0.67	0.79
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	16	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.28
Entries into the box per match	10	8
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	275	319
Passes against per match	411	408
Switches of play per match	18.9	23.1
Long balls per match	27	33

Set pieces	Newcastle United	Bournemouth
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	4.5	6.5
Corners against per match	7.5	7.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.13
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.6

Other	Newcastle United	Bournemouth
Throw-in control	0.51	0.66

The goalkeepers	Lukáš Horníček (Newcastle United)	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)
Saves	10	9
Save %	83%	75%
xG prevented	67%	81%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Newcastle United vs Bournemouth according to our model?

The model gives Newcastle United a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.