Premier LeagueSt James' Park, Newcastle13°0,6 mm29 km/h

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    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedLow block & direct
    vs
    Hull CityHull CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Newcastle United (69%)

    Newcastle United vs Hull City · Premier League

    1 · Newcastle United 69%X 19%13% Hull City · 2

    Analysis: Newcastle United – Hull City

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: The model sees Newcastle United as clear favorites with a hefty 69% chance of winning. If you're looking for an upset, it’s a slim one. The most likely scoreline points to a comfortable 2-0 victory for the hosts, underlining their expected dominance with an impressive xG of 2.20 against Hull City's more modest 0.80. Yet, the actual points table challenges this bullish outlook: Hull City holds a slight advantage with 7 points to Newcastle's 5, which suggests that the hosts might be slightly overvalued.

    However, dig deeper, and you'll see Newcastle's underlying stats tell another story. The hosts have an xG per match of 0.97, indicating they're generating better chances than Hull's 0.69. But their xGA of 2.0 reveals defensive frailties Hull could exploit, especially given that Hull's xGA is a lower 1.4. These stats suggest Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities might not be fully reflected in the model's assessment.

    Despite these conflicting signals, both teams share a low defence, direct playing style, which might lead to fast-paced transitions and opportunities for goals. The model leans towards over 2.5 goals at 58%, but given both teams' defensive metrics, it’s a cautious nod rather than a certainty. The 49% likelihood for both teams scoring supports this ambivalence, adding another layer of complexity.

    As for betting value, the market doesn't scream opportunity. The numbers favor Newcastle, yet the real-world table and defensive stats hint at vulnerabilities.

    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
    Form WLDWD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #15xP/match #18Points #7
    Key players
    • Yoane WissaFxG 0.36 · xT 0.05
    • Anthony ElangaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
    • Lewis HallLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.25
    Hull CityHull City
    Form WWD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #9xT #19xP/match #11Points #3
    Key players
    • Oli McBurnieFxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    • Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
    • Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01

    Match prediction: Newcastle United – Hull City

    Predicted score matrix

    Hull City →
    Newcastle United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–13.7%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–19.0%
    1–23.5%
    1–30.9%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–012.0%
    2–19.6%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–08.8%
    3–17.1%
    3–22.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–08.1%
    4+–16.5%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-09%
    Expected goals
    2,20–0,80
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.30
    Over 2,558%
    @1.64

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Newcastle United to win69%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Newcastle United to win69%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Lewis Kieran Hall to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Lewis Kieran Hall to score25%
    • Matt Davidson Rider Crooks to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Newcastle United69% probability@1.50BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Newcastle United69% probability@1.50BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Newcastle United69% probability@1.50NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Newcastle UnitedX2 · Hull City
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    1.50    		4.156.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    1.50    		4.186.82
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    1.50    		4.206.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    1.48    		4.546.05

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 17:40

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Newcastle United win 55% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Newcastle United
    Hull City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Newcastle United (6–4)
    Hull City (3–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Newcastle United
    Sven Botman: 128 passningar, xT 0.4BotmanLewis Hall: 109 passningar, xT 0.71HallMalick Thiaw: 100 passningar, xT -0.08ThiawLewis Miley: 97 passningar, xT 0.08MileyNico Gonzalez: 87 passningar, xT 0.16GonzalezAmar Dedić: 86 passningar, xT 0.21DedićLukáš Horníček: 72 passningar, xT 0.06HorníčekJoe Willock: 43 passningar, xT -0.02WillockSean Steur: 41 passningar, xT 0SteurHarvey Barnes: 39 passningar, xT 0.01BarnesYoane Wissa: 35 passningar, xT 0.08Wissa
    Hull City
    Konstantinos Tzolakis: 61 passningar, xT 0.09TzolakisRegan Slater: 58 passningar, xT 0.01SlaterNobel Mendy: 56 passningar, xT 0.09MendyJohn Egan: 56 passningar, xT 0.03EganSemi Ajayi: 53 passningar, xT 0.13AjayiRyan Giles: 51 passningar, xT 0.57GilesLewie Coyle: 37 passningar, xT 0.08CoyleMohamed Belloumi: 30 passningar, xT 0.02BelloumiOli McBurnie: 26 passningar, xT 0.09McBurnieLucas Gourna-Douath: 25 passningar, xT 0.03Gourna-DouathElliot Stroud: 17 passningar, xT 0.15Stroud
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Newcastle United
    Sven Botman: 128 passningar, xT 0.4BotmanLewis Hall: 109 passningar, xT 0.71HallMalick Thiaw: 100 passningar, xT -0.08ThiawLewis Miley: 97 passningar, xT 0.08MileyNico Gonzalez: 87 passningar, xT 0.16GonzalezAmar Dedić: 86 passningar, xT 0.21DedićLukáš Horníček: 72 passningar, xT 0.06HorníčekJoe Willock: 43 passningar, xT -0.02WillockSean Steur: 41 passningar, xT 0SteurHarvey Barnes: 39 passningar, xT 0.01BarnesYoane Wissa: 35 passningar, xT 0.08Wissa
    Hull City
    Konstantinos Tzolakis: 61 passningar, xT 0.09TzolakisRegan Slater: 58 passningar, xT 0.01SlaterNobel Mendy: 56 passningar, xT 0.09MendyJohn Egan: 56 passningar, xT 0.03EganSemi Ajayi: 53 passningar, xT 0.13AjayiRyan Giles: 51 passningar, xT 0.57GilesLewie Coyle: 37 passningar, xT 0.08CoyleMohamed Belloumi: 30 passningar, xT 0.02BelloumiOli McBurnie: 26 passningar, xT 0.09McBurnieLucas Gourna-Douath: 25 passningar, xT 0.03Gourna-DouathElliot Stroud: 17 passningar, xT 0.15Stroud

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNewcastle UnitedHull City
    Points57
    xPoints2.54.2
    xG per match0.970.69
    xGA per match21.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.660.07
    Playing styleNewcastle UnitedHull City
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.390.17
    xT per match0.690.55
    xTA per match0.851.6
    Won balls, offensive half1621
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.16
    Entries into the box per match108
    Entries into the box against1418
    Pass completion %0.770.64
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.7
    Passes per match305183
    Passes against per match360578
    Switches of play per match19.216.8
    Long balls per match2826
    Set piecesNewcastle UnitedHull City
    xG from free kicks00.11
    Corners per match4.32
    Corners against per match65.4
    xG per corner0.030.11
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.62
    OtherNewcastle UnitedHull City
    Throw-in control0.580.69
    The goalkeepersLukáš Horníček (Newcastle United)Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City)
    Saves1410
    Save %82%100%
    xG prevented62%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Newcastle United
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hull City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Newcastle United vs Hull City according to our model?

    The model gives Newcastle United a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newcastle United 69%, draw 19%, Hull City 13%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.