Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London17°0,2 mm12 km/h

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    Tottenham HotspurTottenham HotspurBalanced & physical
    vs
    EvertonEvertonBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Tottenham Hotspur (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Everton @ 3.75 (+17 %)

    Tottenham Hotspur – Everton · Premier League

    1 · Tottenham Hotspur 40%X 29%31% Everton · 2

    Analysis: Tottenham Hotspur – Everton

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT holds except for one unsupported/incorrect claim: Harry Kane is no longer a Tottenham Hotspur player (he moved to Bayern Munich in 2023), so crediting him with carving open defences for Tottenham is a factual error not supported by the FACTS.

    Corrected text:

    Tottenham Hotspur's attacking approach is central to their hopes against Everton. Despite their 40% win probability, the home side's recent form leaves a lot to be desired. A glance at their xG suggests inefficiency in attack, only managing 0.95 per match since 2022, overshadowed by Everton's 1.3. Indeed, the visitors boast both higher xPoints (4.6 to 3.2) and a better points tally (5 to 1), suggesting they have been more effective in turning performances into results.

    Tottenham's historical edge in head-to-head clashes, with three wins in the last four meetings, comes with the caveat of a small sample size, meaning recent form and expected goals carry more weight. With both teams displaying a balanced and physical play style, the clash could easily settle into a midfield battle, where the margins will be fine.

    The expected goals tally of 1.48 for Spurs and 1.24 for Everton paints a picture of potential balance. The most likely scorelines hover around 1-1 and 1-0, each at 12% and 9% probability respectively. This suggests a tight contest, although Tottenham's higher xGA of 2.0 per match could be their Achilles heel against a side that has proven slightly more clinical.

    The over/under market tilts slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 51%, but the more compelling numbers lie in the win market. The value is clear on Everton's side, with Nordicbet, Betsson, and Betsafe offering odds around 3.7 while the model assigns them a 31% chance to triumph. This creates an edge of up to 17%, a significant opportunity for the shrewd bettor. With Everton showing an edge in several metrics, backing the visitors offers a calculated gamble with tangible upside.

    Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
    Form LWLLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #18xP/match #16Points #18
    Key players
    • Micky van de VenCBxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
    • Jan Paul van HeckeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Mathys TelLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
    EvertonEverton
    Form LLWDD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #13xP/match #8Points #8
    Key players
    • Iliman NdiayeCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
    • Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
    • Thierno BarryFxG 0.63 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Tottenham Hotspur – Everton

    Predicted score matrix

    Everton →
    Tottenham Hotspur →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–17.8%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–112.4%
    1–27.5%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.2%
    2–18.9%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,24
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.94
    Over 2,551%
    @1.94

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Xavier Quentin Shay Simons to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Xavier Quentin Shay Simons to score36%
    • James Alan Tarkowski to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Everton31% probability@3.75NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Everton31% probability@3.73BetssonEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Everton31% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tottenham HotspurX2 · Everton
    Betsafe2.00
    EV+ 1%
    3.50
    EV+ 15%
    3.70
    Betsson2.00
    EV+ 2%
    3.52
    EV+ 16%
    3.73
    Nordicbet2.00
    EV+ 1%
    3.50
    EV+ 17%
    3.75
    Pinnacle2.03
    EV+ 6%
    3.68
    EV+ 14%
    3.65

    Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:16

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    50 %45 %

    1.96 → 2.03

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.63 → 3.68

    2-1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.69 → 3.65

    Over 2,5+1 %
    52 %47 %

    1.92 → 1.94

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Tottenham Hotspur 3Draw 0Everton 1
    Goals: 10–3 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Everton
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tottenham Hotspur (0–5)
    Everton (5–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Jan Paul van Hecke: 189 passningar, xT 0.31HeckeMicky van de Ven: 136 passningar, xT 0.05VenSandro Tonali: 116 passningar, xT 0.11TonaliRodrigo Bentancur: 101 passningar, xT -0.03BentancurAndrew Robertson: 97 passningar, xT 0.18RobertsonAntonín Kinský: 95 passningar, xT 0.08KinskýMateus Fernandes: 88 passningar, xT 0.17FernandesPedro Porro: 72 passningar, xT 0.17PorroMarcos Senesi: 69 passningar, xT 0.11SenesiMathys Tel: 67 passningar, xT -0.02TelArchie Gray: 48 passningar, xT 0.02Gray
    Everton
    Vitalii Mykolenko: 105 passningar, xT 0.15MykolenkoJames Tarkowski: 98 passningar, xT 0.14TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BranthwaiteMerlin Röhl: 87 passningar, xT 0.27RöhlKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 86 passningar, xT 0.32HallJordan Pickford: 79 passningar, xT 0.17PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 70 passningar, xT -0.02ArmstrongJames Garner: 66 passningar, xT 0.05GarnerHayden Hackney: 66 passningar, xT 0.09HackneyTyrique George: 64 passningar, xT 0.09GeorgeIliman Ndiaye: 64 passningar, xT 0.29Ndiaye
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Jan Paul van Hecke: 189 passningar, xT 0.31HeckeMicky van de Ven: 136 passningar, xT 0.05VenSandro Tonali: 116 passningar, xT 0.11TonaliRodrigo Bentancur: 101 passningar, xT -0.03BentancurAndrew Robertson: 97 passningar, xT 0.18RobertsonAntonín Kinský: 95 passningar, xT 0.08KinskýMateus Fernandes: 88 passningar, xT 0.17FernandesPedro Porro: 72 passningar, xT 0.17PorroMarcos Senesi: 69 passningar, xT 0.11SenesiMathys Tel: 67 passningar, xT -0.02TelArchie Gray: 48 passningar, xT 0.02Gray
    Everton
    Vitalii Mykolenko: 105 passningar, xT 0.15MykolenkoJames Tarkowski: 98 passningar, xT 0.14TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 96 passningar, xT 0.07BranthwaiteMerlin Röhl: 87 passningar, xT 0.27RöhlKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 86 passningar, xT 0.32HallJordan Pickford: 79 passningar, xT 0.17PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 70 passningar, xT -0.02ArmstrongJames Garner: 66 passningar, xT 0.05GarnerHayden Hackney: 66 passningar, xT 0.09HackneyTyrique George: 64 passningar, xT 0.09GeorgeIliman Ndiaye: 64 passningar, xT 0.29Ndiaye

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTottenham HotspurEverton
    Points15
    xPoints3.24.6
    xG per match0.951.3
    xGA per match21.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.030.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.450.2
    Playing styleTottenham HotspurEverton
    Build-up efficiency0.290.31
    Field tilt0.610.51
    xT per match0.590.71
    xTA per match1.31.2
    Won balls, offensive half2728
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.22
    Entries into the box per match1413
    Entries into the box against1411
    Pass completion %0.80.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match435312
    Passes against per match293437
    Switches of play per match27.920.4
    Long balls per match2926
    Set piecesTottenham HotspurEverton
    xG from free kicks0.010.06
    Corners per match7.54.9
    Corners against per match5.44.3
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.110.13
    First touch, offensive corners %0.550.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.380.62
    OtherTottenham HotspurEverton
    Throw-in control0.740.61
    The goalkeepersAntonín Kinský (Tottenham Hotspur)Jordan Pickford (Everton)
    Saves69
    Save %55%75%
    xG prevented29%81%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton according to our model?

    The model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tottenham Hotspur 40%, draw 29%, Everton 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.