Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Premier League29 August 2026Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London19°19 km/h

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Tottenham HotspurBalanced & physical

Newcastle UnitedLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Newcastle United (36%)Soft draw

1 · Tottenham Hotspur 36%X 28%36% Newcastle United · 2

36%

28%

36%

Analysis: Tottenham Hotspur – Newcastle United

Sofia Andersson · 24 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: A clash of near-equals looms as Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United both stand at a 36% model probability to claim victory. With each vying for the upper hand, the expected goals hint at a marginal edge for the visitors. The hosts' physical style faces a direct approach from Newcastle, which could set up a tense battle in midfield and defence.

Though both sides exhibit similar probabilities, the numbers lean towards Newcastle United. Not only do they boast a head-to-head record of three wins and one draw since 2022, but they also show superiority in expected metrics. The visitors average 1.3 xG per match against Tottenham's meager 0.48, and defensively, Newcastle holds a better xGA at 3.5 compared to Spurs' 4.4. This suggests that Newcastle could stifle Tottenham's attack while capitalizing on their defensive lapses.

In terms of goals, the model suggests a slight tilt towards the over 2.5 mark at 52%, with a decent likelihood of both teams finding the net at 56%. The most probable outcome remains a 1-1 draw, yet both 0-1 and 1-2 are equally plausible for the visitors, reflecting their historical edge and current form.

For those seeking value, the betting market provides a compelling angle. Betsson and Nordicbet list Newcastle United at odds of 3.2 with a model rating of 36%, offering a 16% edge, while Betsafe offers 3.15 odds with a 15% edge. With edges this size on the cards, the sharp play leans towards Newcastle snatching the win on their travels.

Tottenham Hotspur

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #12xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

RicharlisonFxG 0.40 · xT 0.07
Mohammed KudusRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Conor GallagherCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Newcastle United

Form WDWLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #17xT #13xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Lewis HallLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
Sven BotmanCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Harvey BarnesLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Tottenham Hotspur – Newcastle United

Predicted score matrix

Newcastle United →

Tottenham Hotspur →

0–06.8%

0–18.9%

0–26.6%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.1%

1–112.5%

1–28.6%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.6%

2–17.9%

2–25.7%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.4%

3–13.5%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,31–1,43

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.25EV+8%

Over 2,552%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Newcastle United or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Newcastle United or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Joelinton Cássio Apolinário de Lira to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Xavier Quentin Shay Simons to score36%
Malick Laye Thiaw to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Newcastle United36% probability@3.30Betfair ExchangeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Newcastle United36% probability@3.20BetssonEV+16%reference odds
2 · Newcastle United36% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tottenham Hotspur	X	2 · Newcastle United
Betfair Exchange	1.91	EV+ 8% 3.85	EV+ 20% 3.30
Betsafe	2.15	EV+ 1% 3.60	EV+ 15% 3.15
Betsson	2.16	EV+ 2% 3.62	EV+ 16% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.15	EV+ 1% 3.60	EV+ 16% 3.20
Pinnacle	2.26	EV+ 5% 3.72	EV+ 11% 3.06

Odds updated 25 Aug, 05:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Newcastle United win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 3.37 to 3.06 (−9%).

1+9 %

47 %42 %

2.08 → 2.26

X+3 %

29 %24 %

3.61 → 3.72

2-9 %

32 %27 %

3.37 → 3.06

Over 2,5-3 %

58 %53 %

1.74 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 25/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Tottenham Hotspur 0Draw 1Newcastle United 3

Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tottenham Hotspur (0–3)

Newcastle United (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tottenham Hotspur	Newcastle United
Points	0	1
xPoints	0.1	0.7
xG per match	0.48	1.3
xGA per match	4.4	3.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.3	1.6

Playing style	Tottenham Hotspur	Newcastle United
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.62	0.3
xT per match	0.66	0.61
xTA per match	2.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	35	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	7
Entries into the box against	21	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.67
Passes per match	467	223
Passes against per match	306	366
Switches of play per match	20.4	12.6
Long balls per match	21	22

Set pieces	Tottenham Hotspur	Newcastle United
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3.1	1.9
Corners against per match	7.2	5.8
xG per corner	0	0
xGA per corner against	0.19	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.67

Other	Tottenham Hotspur	Newcastle United
Throw-in control	0.69	0.5

The goalkeepers	Antonín Kinský (Tottenham Hotspur)	Malick Thiaw (Newcastle United)
Saves	5	6
Save %	63%	100%
xG prevented	33%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United according to our model?

The model gives Newcastle United a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tottenham Hotspur 36%, draw 28%, Newcastle United 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.