01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rennes to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ligue 1Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers24°11 km/h
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AngersBalanced & physical1–2
RennesLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Rennes (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.30 (+8 %)
Angers – Rennes · Ligue 1
1 · Angers 22%X 25%53% Rennes · 2
22%
25%
53%
Analysis: Angers – Rennes
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rennes emerge as the favorites, boasting a 53% chance of victory, reflecting their form and tactical edge. Despite a slim points gap between the sides—Rennes leads by only one point—their attacking prowess is evident, having scored in nine consecutive league matches. This consistency in finding the net, coupled with Angers' balanced and physical profile, tilts the scales towards the visitors.
The expected goals model supports this narrative, predicting Rennes to outscore Angers with figures of 1.73 to 1.08. However, Angers' more favorable expected goals against (xGA) at 1.4 compared to Rennes' 1.7 suggests that the home side may be more adept at limiting clear-cut chances. This defensive solidity might play a crucial role in stifling Rennes' direct attacking play.
A meager head-to-head sample since 2022 shows Rennes with three victories and a draw against Angers, yet this alone holds less weight than current form and expected goals metrics. The most probable scorelines lean towards a closely fought match: 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 or 1-2 (both 10%). These predictions underscore the potential for a tight contest, contradicting the slight nod towards over 2.5 goals at 53%.
In terms of betting angles, the under 2.5 goals market offers value at odds of 2.16 across several bookmakers, including Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 47%, presenting a small but notable edge. Given the anticipated narrow margins and Angers' potential to restrict chances, this value bet aligns with the expected low-scoring affair.
AngersForm LDDLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #7xP/match #12Points #8
Key players
- Mohamed Amine SbaïLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.55
- Branco van den BoomenCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Amine El OuazzaniFxG 0.23 · xT 0.00
RennesForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #13xT #11xP/match #6Points #5
Key players
- Estéban LepaulFxG 0.86 · xT 0.00
- Sebastian SzymańskiCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Mousa Mohammad Mousa Sulaiman Al Ta'mariRWxG 0.19 · xT -0.02
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Angers 22% · Draw 25% · Rennes 53%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RennesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,14fair 6,74-24 %
MissMatchresultat - AngersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,15fair 17,15-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Angers – Rennes
Predicted score matrix
Rennes →
Angers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–110.1%
0–29.0%
0–35.2%
0–4+3.3%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.6%
1–29.7%
1–35.6%
1–4+3.6%
2
2–03.5%
2–16.1%
2–25.3%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.2%
3–21.9%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,08–1,73
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.30EV+8%
Over 2,553%
@1.63
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rennes to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Estéban Lepaul to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Estéban Lepaul to score29%
- Himad Said Abdelli to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.547% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.30BetssonEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.30NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Angers | X | 2 · Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.88 |
| Betsson | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.88 |
| Nordicbet | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 4.01 | 3.92 | 1.88 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
27 %22 %
3.91 → 4.01
X-1 %
27 %22 %
3.94 → 3.92
2+1 %
54 %49 %
1.87 → 1.88
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAngers 0Draw 1Rennes 3
Goals: 2–8 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Rennes have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Angers
Rennes
Angers (3–3)
Rennes (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Angers
Rennes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Angers
Rennes
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Angers | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Angers | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 334 | 339 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 428 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.6 | 24.9 |
| Long balls per match | 49 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Angers | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 8.8 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 7.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.38 |
| Other | Angers | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Anthony Lopes (Angers) | Valentin Rongier (Rennes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 4 |
| Save % | 80% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Angers vs Rennes according to our model?
The model gives Rennes a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Angers 22%, draw 25%, Rennes 53%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.