01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Auxerre to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre19°1,1 mm20 km/h
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AuxerreBalanced & physical1–3
AngersBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Auxerre (47%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.83 (+6 %)
Auxerre – Angers · Ligue 1
1 · Auxerre 47%X 31%22% Angers · 2
47%
31%
22%
Analysis: Auxerre – Angers
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Auxerre's physical playing style meets Angers' similar approach, setting the stage for a gritty midfield battle. Both teams favor balance and physicality, yet it's the visitors who have shown a sharper edge in transitional phases, converting defensive actions into attacking opportunities. This may catch Auxerre off guard, especially considering their vulnerability in expected goals against, averaging 3.6 per match compared to Angers' 1.2.
Despite Auxerre's advantage in the betting market, with a 47% win probability, their defensive lapses could be their undoing. Angers, with their higher xG per match at 2.1, can exploit these weaknesses. The head-to-head record since 2022 is evenly split, with both teams winning twice in just four meetings—a small sample that should weigh less than current form and xG dynamics.
The expected goals model suggests a low-scoring affair, leaning towards a draw or a narrow victory for the hosts. With most likely scorelines pointing to 1-1 or 1-0, and only a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match is set to be tight. The under 2.5 goals scenario seems plausible, but the real betting value is evident on the under 1.5 goals market. Priced at 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 7% edge according to the model, which rates this outcome at 31%.
The sharpest angle here is to bet on a low-scoring match, leveraging the under 1.5 goals at attractive odds. If Angers can capitalize on their superior xG metrics, they have a chance to disrupt Auxerre's home advantage and grind out a result. However, the safer play remains the tight goal line, as both teams are likely to stifle each other's attacking threats.
AuxerreForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #10xP/match #16Points #17
Key players
- Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.00
- Clément AkpaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Lamine SyRWBxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
AngersForm LLDDL
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #4xP/match #9Points #16
Key players
- Prosper PeterFxG 0.35 · xT 0.01
- Branco van den BoomenCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Carlens ArcusRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
Final score
1 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Auxerre 47% · Draw 31% · Angers 22%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AuxerreBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,60fair 11,05-31 %
MissMatchresultat - AngersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,44fair 21,04-36 %
HitMatch prediction: Auxerre – Angers
Predicted score matrix
Angers →
Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–19.0%
0–24.6%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.6%
1–113.2%
1–26.3%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–08.9%
2–18.8%
2–24.3%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.1%
3–14.0%
3–22.0%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–11.9%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-09%
Expected goals
1,37–0,99
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.83EV+5%
Over 2,542%
@2.08
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Auxerre to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score35%
- Marius Courcoul to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.558% probability@1.83PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.47PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.81BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Auxerre | X | 2 · Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | EV+ 4% 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | EV+ 4% 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | EV+ 4% 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | EV+ 6% 3.47 | 3.90 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
1+6 %
51 %46 %
1.93 → 2.05
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.50 → 3.47
2-5 %
27 %22 %
4.12 → 3.90
Over 2,5-1 %
49 %44 %
2.10 → 2.08
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAuxerre 2Draw 0Angers 2
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Auxerre
Angers
Auxerre (2–5)
Angers (0–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Auxerre
Angers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Auxerre
Angers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Auxerre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 0 |
| xPoints | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Auxerre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 2.1 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 331 | 425 |
| Passes against per match | 394 | 315 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.8 | 48 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 61 |
| Set pieces | Auxerre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Other | Auxerre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Mamadou Diop (Auxerre) | Anthony Lopes (Angers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Save % | 44% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 12% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Auxerre vs Angers according to our model?
The model gives Auxerre a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Auxerre 47%, draw 31%, Angers 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.